Can Wall Street EVER be trusted?

Could you please write information about buying physical gold bullion or ingots, coins and physical silver, coins etc. It has been a long time since you mentioned reputable sources. Also, someone in your blog wrote about a way to buy without leaving a trail?
Bonnie S.

I just have to say this! I have subscribed to and studied, many investment advice and information services for several years, and you Larry Edelson and Tony Sagami are THE VERY BEST at advising your clients. PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT, you keep us informed with flash alerts. I subscribe to one other service because it gives me a comparison, but I depend on, and trust your advice. THANK YOU!!!

My wife and I both have 401k’s at work…
How do we make choices amongst limited to bad options…
My wife’s account is managed by Mass Mutual… about a dozen different bond (e.g. PIMCO) and generic stock fund (Large/small cap, growth/value, etc.) choices.
Mine has less: Company stock, Large cap, med/small cap, international, bond fund mostly designed to track Northern Trust I beleive.
Short of quitting (i.e. open self directed IRA), how do you choose?

NO TRUST PERIOD, GOLD AND SILVER IS REAL MONEY

I’m not sure what “Wall Street” means in the context of this question. I think that big turns in the markets are often the result of unpredictable actions by governmental or quasi-governmental agencies. For instance, I believe that the big rally in the equities markets that began in March, 2009, was almost wholly the result of the decision not to force the big banks and financial institutions to mark to market. The other major factor in big turns in the market are manipulative actions by the big players - banks and hedge funds. If these were predictable, they wouldn’t work as manipulation. The existing environment makes real investment impossible for ordinary people and is not supportive of the real business economy. In effect, fakery and fraud have replaced market fundamentals.

Wall Street exists for one and only one reason - to make money for themselves. Since I’ve been watching the markets (for about 20 years), the repeated pattern I’ve seen is Wall Street and their shills espousing this or that prediction until the maximum number of investors are pulled into the trap, spring it on them and walking away from the transaction a lot richer while the individual investor is wiped out. Major players have always been ahead of the curve because they ARE the curve. So, you can’t really wait for the market mouthpieces to start identifying trends because by the time they do, the trend is already underway. Additionally, the same algorithmists that create the software to produce technical forecasts probably write the algorthims for weather prediction and global climate change - they aren’t very accurate either. Bottom line is that they can’t be trusted EVER. The debate is WHY - is it greed or sheer incompetance?

After the events of the past decade, trusting Wall Street is “Russian Roulette”. Traps are set for Prey. There is always a new trap set when the last one springs. I believe that a new trap may be to make it illegal for investors to own Precious Metal Stocks since it would be hard to confinscate physical holdings. “Bank Holidays” may be an attempt to purge the system of people’s holdings by allowing small banks to not participate in the “Holidays”. We’re in a temporary bull market in a permanent bear market until, I believe, the US dollar’s reserve currency status is replaced by anything other than a fiat currency. At that time trust with Wall Street will need to be earned based on “Real” fundamentals.

Dear Larry , We can”t trust wall sreet, but we also can”t trust others markets.

Larry–
We, the “great unwashed” who play not with our lunch money, but with our retirement nest eggs, must be ultra conservative. We MUST look at the long term, sensing where the dollar may be in a few years when we are well beyond our productive years. Dollar averaging is a sensible way to invest, be it in commodities or stock. You, with your “cycles” have been the most accurate at predicting the variagies of the market, and you have been generally correct on direction and magnitude, although timing isn’t always predictable. For instance you predicted a steep dip in gold after the first of the year. Well, here it is, big time– a solid “buy” signal, although it is still above the theoretical base line. In this market a series of small bites on a regular basis is the best bet. As to directly answer your question, Wall Street may correctly anticipate price trends, but they are usually in ‘catch up’ mode as to the cycles. Trust them not!! I’ll stick with cautiously taking your recommendations under advisement, keeping an eye on the market, and being tight-fisted with my investment funds. Nobody can consistently time the market. There are good honest brokers out there, but even they can be caught up in hype and frenzy. I don’t think they are deliberately “trapping” their clients, but they are trying to make a living. They only make money by buying and selling, so they love to churn stock. That’s not the best thing for their clients. I know I don’t have the potential earnings of those who follow the hot stocks, but I can sleep well at night, knowing that what I have is pretty darn safe!!!

Larry,
I think the answer is self evident. First you cannot trust wall street at all. I operates strickly in a self interest mode and never for anything else. It is not in its self interest to anticipate anything other than participate in the profit taking. Why warn/anticipate a buble bust when you are making money from it? Even if you are burned you are bailed out by main street tax dollars and you still get your multi million dollar bonus.
Vince

In 40 years I’ve only met a few brokers who considered my interests. Even those few could not be counted on when incentives were rich from the other side of the trade. Wall Street is a selling machine and if you invite them into your home you’ll get the hard sell pitch, sometimes with a soft glove and sometimes with a 2×4 but almost always with the broker’s profit assured.

I’m Mary’s husband. When your email came through to her I had to laugh when I read the following re your blog:
An even bigger problem: Wall Street experts — whether using fundamental or technical analysis — utterly FAILED to warn us of the most important turning points of the last decade:
They led investors headlong into the Tech Wreck of the early 2000s … and then they did it AGAIN in the Housing Bust of the late 2000s.
All one had to do was use his/her OWN head and make his/her OWN decisions to avoid all of those problems. It did not take a rocket scientist (although I do have and MEd in science education plus many hours towards a PhD) to see that the dot-com companies only talked about “cash burn”. They never seemed to have a real good product or service to sell. Most ideas at best were idiotic. For example; Pet.com. Who in their right mind would buy a 20 pound bag of dog food and pay to have it shipped when that person could just pick it up at the grocery store and tote it home? How much work gets done when every day is a “casual Friday”, and the big selling point of working for the company is a more than adequate child daycare, and entertainment facilites which could be used at any time. We had three kids with no day care, even with the family available and we both worked. In the dot-com companies a lot of productivity was taken away at a high cost to the company. As far as the housing market goes I say that, that prediction started coming out in the 1980’s. I had been working at a Savings & Loan (which did not bust and is now in business as a bank) as an appraiser. When the S & L slowed down I lost my job on December 31,1980. On January 2, 1981 I was on the phone drumming up business. That first year with unemployment compensation and the work I did I made as much as I did at the S & L. In 1983 when the market turned around I didn’t have enough hours in the day and for the next 20 years I made five to ten times more than I did working for someone esle at the S & L. I refused to play the game of pre-ordained values, covered up faults, and graft in general. In fact I managed to put more than one cheater behind bars. In 2003 a second heart attack slowed me down enough so I had to quit working. So now I spend my time recreating in my Antique Gambling and Saloon Museum, plus traveling to find items with which to stock it. One of my college professors said that there is an 11th commandment, “Thou shall tootest thy own horn for nobody will tootest it for thee.” So the previous information is not horn tooting, it is just an example when of how, when a person does his/her own analysis based on the information available things will work out. Currently we are investing in junk silver coins and American gold coins (pre 1933). We are also looking at buying discounted vacant land, land contracts like we did in the 1980’s We made a minimum return of 25% to an infinite return when people just gave us the property. This time around we are looking for contracts which are for vacant land, and where the equity of the buyer is very high. It’as pretty hard to steal and/or damage vacant land and maintenance is nil. Investments are around, they just have to be searched out.
.
Best wishes,

Richard Schulte

Wall Street is a seller of products and services.! At one point in time Wall Street Companies would balance somewhat this drive to sell, with a self disciplined rule to inform for the good of the investor.
In the majority of the companies that balance no longer exists. I am often reminded of the 50’s when you could buy Brooklyn Bridge, salesman stood on corners selling pots and pans, and the snake oil salesman went from town to town in his medicine wagon extolling the virtues of his snake oil. Selling products that have no or a false value needs to be accompanied by penalties, just as selling a car that does not run no longer works. It is buyer beware! Lee

No one has a crystal ball, so no one can predict events that will spoke the markets. The best investment strategy is to buy into a company that you know is reliable and market for a product of service that is needed and is yielding a profit.

Ed Delalahay

So here is why my uncle and godfather, L.J. Jensen, was one of the principal architects and visionary founders of Business Week magazine in 1929-30 — because the markets themselves provided NO reliable, verifiable insight (key word: “insight”) as the what was really going on in the buyer beware marketplaces for investments in American capitalism.

He and several former students of pivotal “historian of American ideas and the evolution of its ideologies” (Vernon Parrington, “Main Currents in American Thought”) left the University of Washington (and Seattle) after Parrington died in 1929, because there was no more reason to hang around in academia.

They hit the roads running (driving, actually), and pre-selling subscriptions to the emerging “insight driven” magazine that had been agreed upon by McGraw-Hill publishing. “Insight” was always the cachet of Business Week, rather than being a mere cultural organ of capitalist propaganda (such as The Wall St. Urinal, and others). The mere propaganda organs of cutthroat capitalism are tools used with clever deceit to lead tons of naive money over the cliff, like bufalo hunters in days of old. Or to drive animal prey into nets for the slaughter. The keystone of the Business Week model was to provide insight for insightful economic living - understanding that ultimately economics is a very personal game, every intelligent person’s reality and position is as unique as their DNA. Thus it was up to the person to decide how to apply the insights into their own realities. Propaganda, advertising and slick marketing don’t do this. They tell you WHAT to do - for the benefit of the marketers, not the buyers. Hence, even in ancient times the romans understand the need for caveat emptor, knowing your sources, and keep your wits about you. Perhaps it is time for an entirely new economic game.

In the past few months (after 80 years) McGraw-Hill sold Business Week to Bloomberg publishing. It will be interesting to witness whether the Bloomberg organization maintains the honest essence of Business Week insightfulness, vs. peddling insight as another stylistic scam in the ancient art of separating fools from their money.

The answer is simple. THey are eternally bullish, they have to be to move their merchandise. They told you to buy from 13,000 to 6700. Finally at 6700 they were right! As it rolls over and heads to 4000 DOW and 400 S&P they will tell you to buy all the way down. They may be short themselves, but the retail mullets, pension funds, etc. are essentially long only. They are innate bulls.

I have never trusted wall street or their brokers. Almost all of the stocks we buy are the utilities and our local companies: Eli Lily, Simon, Indy Power and Light, Indy Water Co. We prefer municipal and utility bond funds. However we determine when to get in or out of the market by the actions of the congress. i.e. The 1986 tax code, result wall street collapse. Democrats gained control of congress in 2007 forcing housing loans to people that couldn’t make payments. Note: I sold all my stock one week after the November 2006 election knowing history would be repeated. The increases in taxes presently proposed will bring another collapse.

Wall street firms job is to sell products and make money for themselves. If your rich they may give you a heads up since you pay for this service.

I don’t think wall street can be trusted after this debacke of bail out.wall street loses credibilty with tha bail-out.From this point on Gov. control will be what the federal reserve was .the only thing more obvious of the inside trading is the lack of prosecution due to all the retirement funds gone.That in it’s self is why the smoke screen of bail out.there are circle who say it’s due to the colapse of the english pound which the dollar is holding up,the euro is just another fiat system that will do the same.My thing is this who took all the gold from the western civilization?what I see is the federal reserves in all the nations to promote their agenda of returning of their King-God King to them.there is no book of esther in the lost dead sea scrools.Just a thought.

Since the market is a reflection of the actions of a variety of people with variety of opinions , all betting
from different perspectives ( short,medium or long mostly),all affected by the news of the day concerning local and global happenings , I think it becomes a challenge with so many variables that only God could it sort out. That being said, for investors that are being advised by newsletter and probably dont have the time to be active participants in the market daily (they have real jobs), medium term and long term info becomes the most useful and important to us and probably the info that you guys can be and are the most accurate with. Best regards. John F

I don’t believe their research is effective becasue it doesn ‘t combine fund’dl & tech’l into a single stmt. In addition they serv more than one master none of which is primarily their clients. I don’t trust them!!!!

NO ONE SEAMS TO KNOW THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION. HOW WILL THE NEW WORLD ORDER CONVINCE AMERICANS TO ACCEPT A NEW WORLD CURRENCY. HOW FOR OFF IS THIS NEW WORLD CURRENCY.WOULD THE U.S.A. GO TO WAR AGAINST THE NEW WORLD ORDER IF IT TRIED TO FORCE THE NEW WORLD CURRENCY ON THE U.S.A. THANK YOU;RANDY.

No, of course not! The scheming minds of Wall Street are always looking out for their interest, and they control the game! (Federal Reserve via associated banks), and the US Government via Lobby!

Everyone else is just a pawn in their game, and will suffer if not aware as such.

Our Founding Fathers are rolling in their graves right now, so wake up people, take action, be careful and aware, and learn to speak Chinese, as they will soon foreclose on our Country!

Peace, MC

I don’t trust any body any more. The only people that got out were the insiders. All of us small investors took the hit and will continue to over and over. My investments have done nothing from 2000 to to 2009.

There is a fundamental conflict of interest at play here. You cannot expect someone whose profits are dependant on attracting new investors to ever tell you that the market is a bad investment.

There is also a tremendous negative psychology against short trading with some brokerage firms actively suppressing any interest.

“Just because it’s not fundamentally sound, doesn’t mean it’s not happening”. Rick Santelli

Wall street cannot be trusted. Wall street sets up these swings and profits from them. It is a rigged system and not the investment vehicle it was originally intended to be.

The sooner you learn this, the sooner you can protect from it and profit by it!

Are you kidding?
Trust?
I wouldn’t even qualify this with a degree of time, “ever” or not.
Is there any wall on this street not having someone leaning on it and either lifting a skirt with one hand or teasing a carrot with another? Or both?
Its very name is a metonym, a rhetorical term where the use of one name is substituted or used for something associated with it: a deception.
And to the affliction of our corporate Presidency, this appears to have begun when George Washington took his oath of office at Federal Hall overlooking Wall Street at the time, the same location where the Bill of Rights was passed. Was this the inspiration for corporations having the rights of individual citizens? You know, the right to fornicate the public?
Actually, I’m an optimistic person. I just don’t accept faith as a mode of operation when the faceless minions to the masters are manning the masses money. That’s why we have a judicial system. Too bad no one has the requisite ethics to operate it successfully.
As far as any economic -ism goes, capital, social or whatever, none will work without genuine ethics applied in regard to the whole of our existence.
Heck, isn’t your ethic of reason what got you to this blog?

Listen, Obama is the perfect dead horse President. He is a puppet and if he doesn’t perform as the corporations demand they will pull his birth certificate string and he goes down in history as the biggest scam in Presidential history. Wall Street is a game to be played with tungsten steel nerves as the powerhouse Goldman Sachs controls the market using the federal reserve printing presses. There was no reason for that stock market to rally back to 10,000 other than it was by design. The only way to play the game is to unite traders against Goldman Sachs. Meaning everyone sells their stock and drives a stock value down the same way Goldman Sachs uses it money and power to absorb investors money. If people don’t begin to unite as a collective corporations and power elite will steal your money again. It is about every five to six years we see the stock market take a plunge and Goldman Sachs, politicians, power elite are sitting in the right position to take your money.

First of all, no, Wall Street is not to be trusted; they want your money, period. Secondly, personally, I’m not impressed with money managers either. I’m sure there are some smart, well meaning ones out there, but, overall, they kinda have the same goal as WS. Last, I’m frustrated at the lack of a good, solid source of guidance information about how to best invest money. Want a different view on what’s going to happen in the market? Pick up another mag or newsletter. From all of the sources I read, Larry, you’ve got the straightest talk in town. Keep it up, don’t let us down.

Larry,

Depends on what “Wall Street” means. The reason I sold all equities including all gold, commodities and emerging market stock and fund last week and Monday of this week was because I heard good arguments from guests on CNBC and Fox Business News.. Thank goodness I got out of this mess. Now were these guys condidered “Wall Streeters”? They weren’t from major securities firmrs, that’s for sure.

David

Wall Street cannot be trusted under any circumstances. They are in to MAKE MONEY. Before privileged information are released, they use it for their own monetary gain. Wall Street would then see trap and swindle Main Street. One example is the use of super fast computers to manipulate the stock market. Frankly, there are a lot of them inside this government and administration to closely lobby and protect their own vested interests ahead of the general public who are suppose to be the masters of their own country America.

Stock brokers are trash. Never made money until I took charge of my money. Also fire ALL senators and members of congress. America need a fresh start.

I guess it depends on what you cal Wall Street Experts. I used to work for a major wall street house.
I never did consider their analysis and recomendations legitimate most of the time. Its interesting that certain wave forecasters are signaling the end of stock, commodity and other investment bull markets due to severe deflationary forces. They may be right this time. This includes gold.

The trap has already been set.

Depends who you know on Wall Street.

I was told in August 2007, by a friend who is very close to Wall Street Financiers advising the super rich, that the Financial markets would turn to custard in June/July 2008. I feel that was a pretty good (private) prediction for 10 months out. But was it a prediction or just intimate knowledge of the REAL truth, and manipulation of the markets for the wealthy. I am not a conspiricist, but I do understand the greed aspect of some people and the stupidity or gullibility of others.

So you decide what is really going on. Cause one way or another you are the ones who are paying for it all. Same manipulation applies for commodities, currencies etc, but then, we already know about that, don’t we.

NEVER…….NEVER……….NEVER AGAIN………………………

Larry I believe you can trust Wall and Broad to take the most amount of money from us in the shortest amount of time. I beieve in real money and also feel all of the indicies will fall to the 200 day and mabe more depending on volume.

It has been stated that the first casuality of information is: TRUTH!!

For too many decades, the so-called professionals have demonstrated another casuality : INTEGRITY

My observation as I approach 80 years of age is that Governments, being a collection of power seekers, also has violated the trust of a now myth: IN THE PUBLIC INTERESTS

So, anything being propagandized has to be seriously investigated and the 1st flaw uncovered is basis for discarding the concept!
That is all from down on the farm at this time, thanks, ed

Expert predictions can be skewed by unanticipated events. Also if a large number of investors follow an advice this may cause a market to swing or react different than expected.

Consider the amount of money that is presented to the stock market each month through retirement account funding.
The system has created a conveyor belt of retirement money that consistently flows into the stock market every month.
We are force feeding money into the stock market furnace and it just keeps burning it up.
Think about it, has your retirement really increased over the last 10 years?
Did you stop putting money in?
NO: but we keep feeding that dang furnace because we are told to.
Are we deaf dumb and blind or do we choose to be that way?
To stay in our commfort zone we don’t go against the system, don’t create waves, and stay under the radar.

Where is the real backing for the increased valuations of stocks, or commercial and private property?
I don’t think we realized the amount of fiat money that is created out of thin air.
Easy money creates greed, and that greed is the stock market.
It’s the American fiat child (the stock market) that has turned on its provider the investing public.
Or, can we trust our government?
Look how quickly the President turned directions. From don’t worry about the deficit to sudden fiscal responsibility.
The latest polls reflect the latest herd mentality, and that’s us the “American Public”.
Let’s look all look in our own mirrors to see the real problem.

You don’t have to agree with this. Just remember the thought.
There is some one at the very top of the pyramid.
We probably don’t know him/them. But for sure there are some people WE do know, who know very well. Let’s ask Rothschildes, the Morgans, Rockefellers,
who they are. I will bet my bottom dollar if they were asked they would tell you, becasue their arrogance is making them stupid. For crying out loud. ..!
Imagine..trying to pull the wool over our eyes and get a way with it.?
Vivianna

In the Islands the market opens at 3:00am to 4:00am depending on the time of the year. Being a day trader as a kid, I found a rigged game. Later, the only companies I invested in were those that owned a substantial amount of real assets(cash, land, product) or Companies that “factor” (trade consumer debt for cash). The world has changed; It has been for many years now of Commercial Real Estate, Hard money lending and occasional stock purchase.
Yes, I personally knew Obama’s, card carrying, communist grandfather(a client’s tenant) and his grandmother at the Bank. I have a realistic view of his background. Currently, sitting about 90% cash, waiting for the “crash” for the last year or so. It will come soon. The only problem is the administration, they will probably try a substantial devaluation(Obama Dollars) or confiscate money or both in various forms. Thinking about other countries and CHANGE, politically speaking.

Hello Larry,
Half of the worlds GDP is printed money. When these nations start defaulting, rates will go up and markets will come down. Do you have anything with a more stable chart than TBT? Rogers indicates food inventories at historic lows. What plays do you have in that sector with stable charts and uncomplicated product distribution methods? Same problems for oil. Use a floater or limit for the bounce tied to another bear stock in case volatility sets off another down movement. Stay out of the Middle East and off shore oil markets in case of war. Markets that go up fast come down fast. And, Asia is still tied to the US market. Do you have a chart that shows when stimulus money impacted the last up trend? New waves of volatility and rising rates may negate this new up side. Don’t rely on single wave theory events from the past. Chart all events for potential down side and list them as to which ones are most likely to occur first. Compare those to possible stimulus interaction. China numbers are fake and tied to printed GDP. The international community is not a priority for China as shown in their commitment to international relief efforts and environmental concerns. Be ready to jump ship under any US default conditions. US debt payments will be cut to Russia and China firstly. The US will pay the Saudis first as long as the oil flows. The US economy is hanging by a thread. Many are hoping we will make it through the next election without financial failure. Watch out for ETF’s with questionable percentages allocated to financials. Stay out of stocks based in countries that are printing money. In war conditions, perhaps Canada, Australia and South America stocks will be the ones to hold.

DavyGene

The Wall St.-Wash.,DC is he AXIS of evil. It thinks that society exists for their benefit all the while being notoriously andknowingly mismanaged. This is a dysfunctional system which cannot endure, although it has done so for 100 years at least. Until the USG decides not to subsidize the Wall St. criminals with taxpayer dollars it has no incentive to change and in its mindset those on Wasll St. consider themselves as the best criminals in the room, country and world. This most recent financial collapse is just a harbinger off the collapse that will eventually happen and which will have to be allowed to run its full course with the collapse of the American financial system and a new construct is put into place, one that serves the society rather than society existing to serve the predatory capitalists. I suspect that the American population with have to experience a period of serfdom before it rebels.

You can’t trust WS as far as you can spit. From the Fed on down to the ratings firms to the pump n Dumpers. Your best bet is to learn the most you can about investing and hope you can do it sort of right. People don’t realize it is one of the hardest things in life to do , yet nobody has time to learn about one of the most important things in their life.
I have subscription services recommending stuff that when you look at a chart you have to wonder what the hell they are thinking. I think they want to unload as YOU buy in, is all I can figure.
They call Vegas “Sin City they should call Wall St. “SIN STREET”.
If the MIESTRO can’t call a turning point what make you think anybody can. All you ca do is look at cycles. A time for everything.
And one last line for Ann Dee Hawthorne-Kramer The Hunt brothers did not try to corner the market. They were trying to protect their assets from being inflated away by the government.

never trusted wall street. only a fool would ever trust wall street not to be playing with a stacked deck, however, until now i believed you could effectively bet on trends. no, business press, politicians and government reports can further serve their masters with misinformation.

the roots of their wicked manipulations run deep. face it, bernie madoff is typical not an aberration. the “smartest guys in the room” at enron are typical. mike milikin to the keating five including sen. mccaine are the heart and soul of this culture.

trust them? no, i was a fool and retained a bit of idealism that is all gone. on my deathbed i would warn my children before my final moment. never again because these people were born to steal. they have no honor, they are hardwire to take, just like any other rat.

no further comment is necessary…

I’ll stick to the casino. I seem to have better odds there. At least I know it is a machine screwing me and to a real person that lead me to the firing line knowing all he/she wants is the comm. and not the referral business or the long term business I could bring them.

Larry:
Thank you for your efforts in trying to help so many of us (U.S.). G Edward Griffith has a solution. Is it possible to initiate that change as necessary? You’d have to ask Dr. Ron Paul. I am a disabled man in my 70’s, on Social security retirement due to an on the job injury. I own 2 trucks (1965 White Freightliner, 1984 Freightliner, both which are parked on my driveway for the last15 years. Last year the City of Portland decided that the trucks cannot be parked on my driveway and has been levying fines of $454.00 @ month from June of last year, until they are moved off my property. The state claims that the trucks are not “commercial” unless registered and licensed as commercial. The City claims that they are commercial because they were once involved in commercial activity. The government is involved in RPG (Rape, Pillage, & Gut) our country of Liberty, financial security and basic independence. Monies that I had set aside for investing has been confiscated via fines.

After 90 years growth it might be the time for 90 years deceleration.

Hi Larry,

Firstly thanks for your work and your videos, they always provide an interesting perspective. Although I don’t always agree, they form a good part of my own analysis. Some points:

1. I think the USD will rally much higher than you are expecting and for much longer. For the last 12 months or so, so the question has been how would the FED get out of QE without causing massive inflation. I think it is becoming clearer everyday that QE + Keynsian stimulus have failed completely and that debt-Deflation is what we face. The only way out is to get rid of the debt most of which (globally) is in USD and will therefore require USD cash, hence increasing demand for USD and furthur rises in its value.

2. I am concerned with the Uncommon Wisdom belief in China. I was in Thailand during the Asian financial crisis, which was the 1st financial crisis to face the Asian Tigers as they were referred to ALL the time, much like all we hear about these days are the BRICs. At the time everyone believed the Asian Tiger story, yet clearly the 20-30 year boom had led to massive amounts of bad investments as people believed that what ever was produced could be sold and at a profit. Additionally there was a lot of cronyism, corruption and the like that exacerbated the imbalances and led to the Asian financial crisis. I believe China is at that point. It’s largest consumer, the US, is gone (probably for a generation). Where will it send all those goods. Real estate occupancy even in Shanghai is at unsustainably low levels, with huge volumes still under construction. Jim Chanos has calculated that there is enough commercial real estate under construction to provide every single Chinese person with a 5ft x 5ft office. Who is going to occupy all of this?

3. Markets make the news, the news doesn’t make the markets, and the markets (bonds, equities, PMs) appear to be reacting to the reality of deflation, which helps to also explain the fall in PM’s which should be the ultimate safe haven (and I am sure in due course will prove to be). However, in deflationary times the initial rush will be to cash principally the USD.

4. Behavioral Analysis Models such as Elliot Wave, OEW etc suggest that the big move down has just started, and that there is almost no chance of new highs. Some of the cycles analysts I read see potential for new highs (or just off the highs) March-May, followed by major declines. Please could you state through your work, whether or not you see major declines ahead (i.e. this year) and to what levels. Also do you see these being global or limited to the developed world? Personally i am of the opinion that whether it has started already or whether we have the ‘choppiness’ you expect, we can expect the S&P to make final lows significantly below the 667 in March 09 and an ultimate bear market bottom in 2012-14 which should roughly coincide with a peak in PMs. I think this is similar to the expectations of Martin Armstrong, currently unjustly incarcerated, and one of the major proponents of Cycles analysis.

5. Lastly, let me invite you for a drink in BKK some time !

Regards

What makes you think that these “geniuses” ever learn. They just lurch from one train wreck to the next. The more they tout “value”, the more I think about cash and gold. One has to wonder how Goldman Sachs made out so well under TARP and the credit collapse. Did all of their investors do as well?

My neighbor publishes a technical news letter. He showed me how he just looks at technical criteria like sector earnings, sales, free cash flow, and then other issues like the money supply, interest rates, etc. He freely admits that he applies math formulae to the data even when it goes against the “experts”. He is also an advocate of Gann charting. Less “BS” and at least some historical data and direct acknowledgement that past performance is no guarantee of anything.. He also indicated that a lot of the technical models will have a hard time given the large uncertainties the Obama train wreck is putting into the economy.

I spent 10 years writing about business, finance, public companies and a lot of white collar crime - I was based in South Florida.

One thing I learned, and it was something I attempted to instill in new reporters as I grew into the older, more-experienced business journalist, is that business people lie - all the time. They lie even though, for a public company, they are required to have an ‘independent’ public auditor in addition to whatever in-house accounting they have. Wall Street would sell its mother, grandmother and anyone/thing else if they thought they could make money at it. Yes, the same is true of lawyers - they make a great pair.

Do I really need to say these things? Our libraries are replete with how “the smartest guys in the room’ turned out to be common criminals.

Dear Larry,
No I do not trust Wall Street at all. They are out only for themselves and the rich. They lie to us and all we know is what we see on news and they don’t tell all. Only what they may want you to know.
Next I’m thinking of taking my money out of the bank, all is about to crash down around our heads, and people who pay attention, better pay closer attention! America is going down, faster and faster, thats just my opinion, whats yours??

Best Wishes
Brenda

Larry,
Gold seems to be following the stock market but hasn’t always does that. With inflation around the corner I too think that gold will eventually move much higher.
My question is this, if the rally that we’ve seen since last March in the stock market collapses down to the 7500 level will gold follow suit or will it eventually perform in an inverse manner,
When the stock market rose in the 1990 precious metals were under severe pressure, now that the market is correcting gold again is under pressure. What gives, I’m seeing curve balls that don’t make sense.
Dave

Was nice meeting you at the money show.

With the economy so fragile, was is gold so closely linked to the dollar?

YOU MIGHT AS WELL ASK; CAN HUMAN BEINGS EVER BE TRUSTED?

As retirees, we shutter at the gleeful effort of our leaders to lie….just plain lie and deceive us at every economic turn. So, we fear the country has gone beyond its
historical principles of free markets and personal freedoms and into the destruction
of the dollar and eventually our economy. In some ways, we are fearful, while we
invest in gold/silver, mining stocks and oil…soon currencies, yet we are hopeful in
our Christian faith. The President, his cabinet and advisors have hurt us terribly financially, but we are awake now, trying to make the recovery. Want to offer
our heartfelt thanks to you for your advice and direction.

No….the government is not to be trusted under any circumstances!

wyn and diane harter