Care to give me a hand?

Larry,
My opinion isn’t worth much, but here it is:
1) Fund managers and the like must know something but so many of them are so wrong most of the time that what they know doesn’t amount to much.
2) Their jobs and reputations depend more on not getting it wrong than getting it right, and their bosses demand instant and constant results so that they are stuck in the short term. Strange when their advice to clients is usually “Buy and hold.”
3) There are lots of people who have been, Gann, and are, Buffett, successful investors and traders.
Gann wrote a book about his methods and proved they worked. I believe Buffett says very little about how he does it, but he does it convincingly. I think it’s called talent, and some of us have it in spades, in all sorts of fields, concert hall, sports, or market.
4) I would put my money, if I had any, on numbers and patterns.
Dennis Healey

Larry–
I have a degree in Economics plus some graduate work, so that may give me a slight advantage when looking at trends in the economy and market sectors. Of course I may as well be overconfident in my own ability as contrasted to the “pros” who do in-depth analysis and pick stocks for the mutual funds.
Being retired (since age 51, now 70!) I am extremely cautious with my investments. A person with limited means has to carefully weigh the risk/reward balance. I think that most fund managers are slightly more aggressive than I am comfortable with, although most do a creditable job for their investors. I would rather go with the fund that has shown solid performance over many years than a hotshot fund that varies widely in performance, posting a loss one term and a 60% gain the next.
As to your specific question, I think that the great majority of fund managers do take their fiduciary responsibility seriously, but the depth and accuracy of analysis between funds varies widely. I doubt seriously if any fund manager goes strictly by gut feel. Of course, there will always be those slimy individuals and companies which treat the investors’ funds as their private piggy bank and manipulate funds so as to generate the largest commissions possible, regardless of the best interest or risk tolerance of the client.
It all boils down to getting a trustworthy fund manager within your risk tolerance framework, then watching him like a hawk!

Larry

I would like to make another comment on the subject of inflation. I have definitely noticed increases in our daily living expenses. At the same time I have added Inflation Protection Mutual Funds to my investments but recently I see nothing more then a sideways movement. Do you have any opinions on this type of investment ast the present time.

i think you have it exactly right about inflation….price inflation in the past 18months is very marked. I’m in england, and our supermarkets have had no shame about price increases of 50 to 100% for many basic foodstuffs. The basic cheap foods are what is being targeted.You would imagine our politicians never visit a supermarket. The CPI/RPI is, as you say manipulated….in a cynical and deliberate fashion. I don’t know if these politicians are convinced by their own propaganda, or indeed if it is bad thing if they are.
Where I think you are less accurate, at least as far as the UK is concerned, is that wages and pensions are being held down while prices soar in a steady fashion…..all this amounts to a transfer of resources from the average wage earner, pensioner, and increasing number of unemployed people, towards compensation for their losses for the poor bankers, financiers and corporate owners who benefit from the system that has caused this chaos. And who effectively own the Governments of whatever political colour.
And you don’t need a nobel prize in economics to know that printing fiat money causes inflation.

I think they go by their gut, a lot also. Look at the so called professionals in 2009, they lost money just like everyone. Indexes beat them most of the time. For some of my money I like to bet on the total market and it is a lot less expensive. i am also looking for income and dividends,

Funds, banks, the fed- I think they disregard fundamentals. Just physically moving funds where it serves their selfish objectives. Nothing else matters.

I think the Wall Street managers are using research, networking and what will make them look good in the short-term. After all, they have to make a living too. I sold all of my mutal funds in Dec 2009 and now in cash, 100 shares of GLD & SLV. I just purchased gold bullion as part of my IRA and now look to resource based stocks with dividends for investment. Today, after China started to tighten the banking system and Obama lost his grip on power with one Senate seat in Mass., we may have seen the begining of the double dip. I am tracking Larry’s stock recos with an entry point below 200d MA. Thanks for the uncommon wisdom and changing the wau I look at investing.

I generally tend to follow the leading sectors such as commodities — especially precious metals.
I also review articles by commentators such as yourself for leads.
Lately I have been researching for investment in pipelines (natural gas/oil) as I understand these people earn money even in diffficult times.
BTW I enjoy reading your articles. You come through as being quite sincere besides being knowledgeable. I intend to be a paid subscriber soon.
Thanks — and keep up the good work

Don’t trust anyone in the financial areas of the USA — I had my IRA stolen by a crooked stock broker — turned him into the SEC and they froze his assets business and personal until I believe he made a donation to the George Bush reelection campaign 2005. Miraculously he was left off the hook! My IRA which was supposed to be about $100,000 was sold for a totalof $3800 when I was 70 and 1/2. Me trust the government? You’ve got to be kidding. Me trust the dollar? You’ve got to be kidding. Go to physical gold and silver and only let your family know where it is. Trust financial advisors? You know my answer to that one!!! Good luck to everyone who trusts any politician’s promises.

Mutual fund managers have a tried and truue program to use. Whearas the wall street brokers go where they can make t the most bucks. They are a different breed

Most know little, research engines are out of date, they are little more than order takers with old school direction by corp. Buy & Hold with “proper” asset allocation and the company wins, investor does not

Read a lot, newspapers, websites, books, blogs but more than not i follow the inner voice (my gut).

Larry,
I’ll keep it simple. I believe managers devise a model they think will work and then make an educated guess.
Scott

I think its imporant to diversify investments. Its fascinating to witness all the noise from people who “pump” a single stock or a particular sector or industry. Every bubble that’s created by the hyperbole of irrational exuberance (to use a tired term), is eventually burst, and then its back to a more fundamental approach.

My strategy is to pay close attention to the fundamentals of the companies, sectors, and indusries that one invests in. Perhaps its a more conservaive approach than others take, but you cant argue with financially sound balance sheets and companies that continue to execute on their plans, hit their numbers and consistently pay dividends to share holders. Thats the hidden and true value of a stock in my view. All the rest is just riding on dumb luck of a pumped up and over inflated valuation of a stock or fund.

I do find the Uncommon Wisdom writings to be insightful, but at times it seems a litte over-the-top in their attack on the dollar and the pumping of gold, all but dismissing US domestc investment opportunities like they are relics from a different age. I personally would like to see some positive push for some of the more healthy companies in the US instead of always pushing China china china or gold gold gold. Dont get me wrong I think part of a portfolio should be international, and China’s probably a good choice. As is some natural resources.

Well, i’m kind of new at investing, so maybe I’m clueless. If you’re new like me, start small, diversify, and GO LONG. Dont try to make the fast buck. Investing is a multi-year strategy, wih different goals to achieve for 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. The folk lore of making it big by day trading is a slippery slope.

Cheers.

I am choosing foreign stocks over domestic unless I’m shorting, and my opinion is that the time is right to sell off gold since I bought some of it in 2003 at the beginning of the war. I think energy and natural resources are a good hedge against inflation. I don’t play with foreign currencies. I stay away from bonds since I am more aggressive than conservative. As far as cutting these investment choices up into little pieces,I use a basic approach of fundamental analysis or what’s emotional mixed with some probability theory.

I usually decide from the reports I read and suscribe to. I never allocate more than I am willing to lose and only a percentage of my total portfolio. With trailing stops.

Dear Larry,
I have been reading your reports for months. Based on your information and at present, I have invested in Gold approximately $9,000.00 in coins pre 1933. I’m not really interested in the pneumatic features but that it is none- confiscatable gold whereas bullion and Eagles, Krugerrands, & Maple Leafs are. I don’t trust our gov. when 2012 comes and perhaps new script issued to replace the dollar the IMF may very well demand gold from it’s members to back up the new money.. As long as we have our Constitution (which Obama is trying to destroy) congress passed series of protective laws for collectors and investors of gold prior to 1933. (Aug. 15, 1974, 1954 amendment) I’m considering more Gold purchase. Also, I took your advice on Silver and have $2,500.00 in Silver Dollars. 1 oz pure silver coins. You have advised Gold Bullion etc. but as mentioned above I am nervous about our gov. heavy hand and we could loose our investment overnight. Your thoughts are appreciated.

Chinese Stocks, I noted that W. Buffet invested 230 m in BYD Electric Car Co.. he must have faith in that company. I’m considering buying. Follow the money !
I’m a small investor, but want to protect myself against the impending situation which most Americans just don’t get and the gravity of impending monetary catastrophe.

Natural resources such as gold, metals and oil/energy have a cycle of demand and supply. With respect to foreign stocks their value depends on the world economy and which translates into value in $ terms.
Since the US is exporting wealth at an ever increasing rate by living above it’s means and the inability to source natural resources from within due to legislative measures that have effectively strangle ( time and money) bringing new resources to market it is not unreasonable that the value of the US $ will decrease significantly over the next five to ten years.
Combine the above scenarios and there is long term value in overseas stocks and also in commodities such as oil and gas. Gold tends to be cyclical but it’s long term trend will be up due to the decrease in value of the US dollar.

1) For my long positions, I buy ADR’s or on foreign exchanges with approx. 33% Asia, 40% South America, 10% Europe, and 17% US. For my short positions I am all in US. I believe that we are in a sucker rally and earnings are going to start killing the US market. I have about 25% of my portfolio in gold and silver bullion stored overseas. My long positions are distributed in Mining, Petroleum, Utilities, and Consumer. I am not into trading currencies as I do not have the knowledge. Bonds are not giving any return worth mentioning now so I am out of the bond market.

2) I follow world events and world markets and adjust my allocations depending on events. Bullion at 25% is a long term hold. Right now I am about 1/3 in equities and the balance in cash. I am keeping a larger than normal cash position waiting on a market crash to get back in.

3) I am not high on managers and prefer to do my own work. I think they like to snow clients with charts and buzz words that they really don’t understand to churn commissions. When it comes to protecting their clients, their company, or their commissions they protect them in inverse order. Anyone who will not put in the time to research and manage their investments are fair game to the mutual fund salesmen.

I believe they use a system, albeit flawed. The brokers make money off of the investers regardless of performance.
I had several thousand dollars in mutual funds in the 1990’s, I didn’t like the stock market situation, I believed it was well over valued. I took my money out. I guessed right, the markets corrected themselves. Two years ago, I took every penny of my investments out and bought CD’s, believing that once again, the market was overvalued. Once again I guessed right.
Everyone said whoa don’t be a fool. I wasn’t, I sold my assets at their peak value, that’s how you make money.
I reinvested modestly in the market, when the DOW dipped below 7,000(I had predicted publicly on 580AM radio in Topeka KS, that it would bottom out at 7354, I was almost a thousand high. I also valued the markets worth at between 9200 and 10200. Which I believe to be accurate. That means that now is still a good time to invest because it goes up and down. But I have invested all I plan to in the market, until I believe it has peaked again. That’s where I am at. I won’t day trade or play the other games. Unless I find a particular product, that I truly believe in. Which at this time is simply myself.

The “professional approach” to asset allocation probably takes 2 different courses depending upon the brokers situation. If it is a house broker “managing” individual accounts, although there may be a lot of technical analysis or what have you, their approach is likely to be more of a “seat of the pants” approach within the limits of what the “house” is holding and recommending. In a nutshell, gut driven, speculative, and very hit and miss. Certainly if not the primary goal, this behavior is designed to generate commissions and hopefully a profit so the broker can continue to have clients. If a fund manager, where the management fees are “fixed relative to the assets under management” a more prudent percentage allocation model is likely to be followed within certain limits and the charter of the fund. This approach is more of a status quo model designed to run with the average “pack” whether good or bad. You will rarely encounter large gains or losses that are off the bell curve. When the tide comes in, all boats will rise, but when it retreats, so do the rewards. In my opinion, both of these approaches really don’t do any asset class allocation as their focus is really on one class of assets regardless of the “mix”, namely paper assets.

I try to invest ~75% of my money in top 5 sectors of the markests, information generally obtained from a newspaper like Investor’s business daily. Remaining 25% in special situations, like specific companies which are good turnaround candidadtes, or new issues, or high dividend plays, etc.

There’s a lot (!) of cynicism out there.

Question number 1. I’ll invest in gold and silver.
Question number 2. In the investment to acquire gold and silver I vlazhivat 50% of my money.

My personal answer to your #1 & #2 questions today:
#1 Managers, brokers and pros: Do (should do) complete analysis, use direct contact with stock Company principals, and have experienced, past knowledge to draw upon.

#2 Should have tested past experience and knowledge to draw upon. Guessing is not an option.

Generally, I dont like mutual funds. Most are just “commission generating vehicles” for novice
investors. A “sector specific” index fund aligned with a “mega trend” has been a good alternative
to mutual funds for me. Also most investors who use mutual funds tend not to try and learn more
about the “art of making money”. As is most things in life, ” little effort, little gain”.
My personal view on the coming “end game” of our current “financial fiasco” is that mutual funds
will become a “wealth graveyard”.

I think most fund managers are going by what most of us do. Following trends and going by their gut. Trying to be diversified. The best thing in my opinion would be to study the past and study what is really happening in the world. Be more informed and then you can make the best decisions.

I really don’t know how fund managers allocate what stocks and areas to invest, I guess they look at past trends and overall track records of investment vehicles and go from there with the mantra of diversify…. diversify, in case some of the market areas “tank”.
Mostly my investments are with my company where I choose which funds to invest in (only from the ones they allow of course) and I can make changes to type and amount as I choose.
Funny how none of the options are for precious metals, which have the highest returns. Perhaps the fund managers keep them for themselves, food for thought huh.
Roland

I have no idea how they pick them. I am new to investing and am looking to be educated on how to invest.

Larry, we really enjoy listening to your videos each week here at our RIA!Thanks for letting us listen in.. We use P&F Technical analysis for all our pics and the stronger a chart looks, the larger percentage we will allocate. We also like to compare our top pics with one another using relative strength charts. We’ve found that ‘gut’ just isn’t terribly reliable.Thankfully, we have a good exposure to gold,silver, M&M and so forth..Kevin Martin..

I feel most of their investment recommendations ignore the falling dollar and are heavily weighted toward US owned companies. This is a big concern as I do believe the opportunities are in overseas investments.

Judy

there is no normal now so a regular methodology is redundant. I only see a 30 yr or more bubble caused and nourished by the fed so I look for a return OF my investment rather than ON the investment. I know the experts make money through charts,quick info and inside info and the money comes from people like me. The banksters and the bureaucrats are stealing the wealth of the nation and the government is gridlocked :so I am 50% in gold and hedging my cash with foreign currencies and commodities.

Hello Larry,

Thanks for asking.

We have invested in Silver and stocks based on what we have studied from books, radio programs, and magazines. For some reasons, we believe Silver will give big return than gold.

To me there will be tough to predict what will happen in the markets. We have been very humble to study what we can from books, financial radio talks, attending financial classroom training, learn from the successful people, and becoming a real student at all time that makes us more confident by times when coming to investing subjects.
We are just starting, Larry. That is hard to me to say anything about how good we are in investing.
We have a strong backgrounds in Real Estate Investments more than anything else but not limiting to other investments. No one would say they are good at everything, that is why we love your wisdom and knowledge to help us reaching the next level.

Best Regards,

At the present time I am reinvesting every thing back into my own company which is paying off very well

I believe that mutual money managers, wall street brokers and pros make all their important decisions in a combination of ways. In this case I would say they use all three ways. First, they have tested reliabe ways to structure portfolios to minimize risks while maximizing profits potential, but this does not always work. And it can even work against them. When they run out of ideas they may quite possibliy take a wild guess or an educated guess. After all they have their own investments at stake to think of, however they cannot always make precise predictions and their formulas do not always work. Then they either have to take advice from someone who knows more than they do or suffer great feats and losses as especially nowadays we frequently hear about. When push comes to shove especially since the market has not been going their way I would not rule out that some of these pros are just shooting blind. This is because this is the way that they make it look.

Hi,Larry.From what I’ve read 75% of fund managers do not beat the averages.My partner and I have most of our money in microcap commodity stocks.I try to buy mostly using Tech Analysis buying only when stocks are oversold using 3 indicators mainly.When all 3 are oversold at the same time there is a 95% chance they will be up 10-15% a few days later.I keep records to confirm these stats.Of the last 18 stocks in this state 9 were up 10-15% a day later.The longest period of all these stocks to reach a 15% gain was 9 days.Many of these go much higher than 15% in a few days.I am a strong believer [as you do] in the demise of the US$ and gold is a major part of my portfolio along with other commodities and energy.I have been swing trading for a penny or two since July 2009.My portfolio in 2009 was up 63% and my partner’s 91%.Over 180 trades netting $21,765.00 the last six months.So far in Jan. 34 completed trades netted $3880.00 in profits.I am quite content with the way things are going so far.I read all the Tech analysis material I can lay my hands on to increase my expertise.I know most people would not recommend this way of trading but it’s working for us.Thanks for your interest and good luck in the markets.

.regards,Joe.

Hi Larry,
I am personally putting all my investments into the African market. My strategy comes from on the ground experience in Africa and strong business acumen. We are opening and operating technology on the continent. Africa is the market.
Kindest Regards
Mary
mary@inetmax.net

I use a combination of fundamental and technical tools to make investing decisions;
1. Current market trend? Bull or Bear. Current stock trend.
2. Current stock price versus 5 year historical data. If a stock is at a 75+ percentile to the 5 year history it will be difficult to significantly increase the price/earnings in this economy.
2-A. Stock price? Over- under 25? Large increases become less likely the higher the price.
3. Position of the Market sector. Is the sector in favor or out of favor?
4. Debt level of said company, debt structure.
5. Is there a cyclical trend in this particular stock? Where is it now in the cycle?
6. Remind myself, do not follow the gut instinct, discipline, discipline, discilpine, follow the plan.

money managers manage your money for their best interest first then you. They tweek the timing of sell and buy orders and make their own bets before making block buys. they try to heard you into trading more to up their commissions. They follow orders from above. (the new world order)

I tend to follow the advice of your group of recent…weiss research led me to your group and I am about to be in a position to invest..your group seems authentic and reasonable which is what attracted me to the team….i am still planning on joining the 595.00 program which still is offered but i am just a few days away from having the funds to do this and more…i am leaning toward foreign investments like china and brazil as well as gold, silver, oil…will count on your input here as well..

I dont know how much to invest and where…my past has been more from the hip and that has been worked and been lucky…looking forward to your leadership and guidance..thanks…bob

Mutual funds seem the way to go. You can find any number of them that meet your criteria for your individual investing needs. You are hiring pros in their particular fields, sometimes a team of managers, to screen and choose stocks and other investments . Read the prospectus and you will discover the paritcular modles they follow. Fees and returns are readily available as is manager track records.

Since the down turn of the market from 10,000 plus to 8,000 and back i have notice no change in market stradegy from all the advestment advise. In all but a few case recommendation come after the stock prise had risent almost to the peak. It would be nice to know of ideas just as they turn around rather than much much later. Personally have chosen to stay out of the market this time and go for internation funds and use the money I took out of the market to go short or long on dollar vs Aus dollar or s ome other combilnation. I have a gut feeling that the market is going down shortly and am selling most of what is stiil in.

Respectfully,

Lew

LARRY, TO START WITH, TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THAT I AM A SMALL INVESTOR, AND THAT I AM CONCERNED ABOUT NOT LOSING, TRYING TO MAKE GAINS BY MAKING AS FEW MISTAKES AS POSSIBLE. OUR GOAL IS TO BUILD INCOME TO ADD TO OUR RETIREMENTS, WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH IN THE YEARS AHEAD. ALL OF OUR STOCKS ARE CANADIAN, AND ALL ARE DIVIDEND PAYING, OIL-GAS-PIPLINES, EXCEPT FOR THE GOLD-SILVER STOCK. WHEN WE ARE ABLE TO CAPTURE GAINS IN GOLD AND SILVER, WE CONVERT THEM TO MORE OIL-GAS-PIPLINES TO INCREASE OUR INCOME STREAM. WE BUY BULLION IN THE FORM OF COINS, GOLD AND SILVER AS WE CAN, TO ADD TO OUR INVENTORY. WE DON’T HAVE ALOT OF GOLD AND SILVER STOCK, BUT ENOUGH THAT WHEN IT DOUBLES OR TRIPLES, WE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR OBJECTIVE ON INCOME STREAM. WITH REGARD TO CURRENCIES, WE NOW HAVE SOME ACCESS THROUGH EVERBANK, WHICH WE HOPE TO BE ABLE TO PROTECT, AND MAYBE GAIN WITH OUR LONG TERM SAVINGS. WHAT REALLY CONCERNS ME RIGHT NOW, IS TALK ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING OUR IRAS. I CAN’T BELIEVE THIS IS HAPPENING AFTER 5 YEARS OF WORK ON OUR PART TO GET TO WHERE WE ARE AND HAVE THIS HAPPEN………AM LOOKING FOR WAYS TO INVEST IN LITHIUM, URANIUM AND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WAYS TO USE ETF’S TO DO IT. I GUESS THE BASIS FOR THE PLAN IS THE BELIEF, THAT BEFORE TOO LONG, GOLD AND SILVER WILL REALLY BEGIN TO ESCALATE IN A MORE SERIOUS WAY. I HOPE I AM RIGHT ABOUT THIS ASPECT OF WHAT WE ARE DOING WITH OUR PLAN. TIMING MAY BE EVERYTHING. I READ ABOUT EVERYTHING I CAN FIND, DAY AFTER DAY. THANKS FOR WHAT YOU CONTRIBUTE TO MY UNDERSTANDING AND MY DECISIONS.

I usually pull the trigger when I seen a steady increase in the stock price, followed by a dip in the price, and then I buy. I always wait for a buy recommendation from either Tony or Larry, I follow the stock, then act. As for silver and gold, I am probably over weighted in stocks, ETF’s, physical, and leverage, but I feel the metals will continue to out perform the market for the next 3 years minimum.

I Don’t know what to buy NOR How much to invest, BUT I do know I want to move out of the dollar, buy more gold and other things!

A friend of mine had purchased 4 mil of middle east dinar as he told me his research (he believes) will see this currency go up in a month or so

I am Looking for advice on what I can do for my family to try and make our (left over) money be safe and increase!

My wife & I have less than 18K for retirement, (in the market) How and where to pull it out and put it is where I need (Much needed) advice!

I do have some (small amount) of gold & silver coins I bought in 99 as well!

H E L P

Sincerely
John Hochreiter

I have a significant distrust of Mutual fund managers. If they do follow their gut I think most of them have Irritable Bowel Syndrome. I think individuals make better choices with their own money because they are more cautious because it’s THEIR money. I like Milton Friedman’s quote on spending money which I think applies to investing people’s money “There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money on yourself. When you do that, why then you really watch out what you’re doing, and you try to get the most for your money. Then you can spend your own money on somebody else. For example, I buy a birthday present for someone. Well, then I’m not so careful about the content of the present, but I’m very careful about the cost. Then, I can spend somebody else’s money on myself. And if I spend somebody else’s money on myself, then I’m sure going to have a good lunch!”

I think fund managers rely on turn over and luck. Their records show that when the market goes up the funds go up. When markets drop funds’ values drop. I think the best way to invest is to have no one between you and your money.

I monitor several services like yours and invest in a composite of the recommendations. My investments are fairly diversified, but with the highest percentage in resources. I have zero interest in bonds and tend to stay away from things that I do not feel that I have adequate understanding of, or the time and knowledge to monitor, such as curriencies and options.

Allocation is roughly based on the perceived composite return potential of the various categories.

i have no money to invest so it means nothing to me. i was born poor and will be poor unless God greatly blesses me with a boat load of money. at that time i would invest in gold and bonds. stocks are too tricky and risky. with bonds at least you know that there is a return and gold is always rising..

I read everything i can about investments, economics and markets, relying on bloomberg.com, and alpha as well as money and markets, safe money, and all weiss publications. i also watch kudlow and cramer. i read newspapers and on line sites as diverse as huffington post and drudge to stay abreast of the news. i have two portfolios and both are designed to provide me with income when i retire in a year and a half. safety of principal and some return are my goals in my conservative portfolio and i do not actively manage it but i do monitor it on a daily basis. the other fund is my ira in mutual funds and right now it is heavily weighted to gold and energy and high yield bonds plus a china fund and short term gov bonds. i make decisions based on intuition and common sense. your publications heavily influence my re-weighting of portfolio but ultimately i make my own decisions.

I haven’t decided but what I’ve been reading has me looking into the precious metals and am trying to follow an MIT discovery in a solar film. I am currently flumuxed about how to judge a reputable broker. I have friends with much more experience and hope to get advice from them.
I have just closed an IRA account that I had with LPL because it hasn’t gained a dime in the last 20 years. I will put it in another IRA, soon. I know I have 60 days to reinvest and not get zapped.
I am wary of the financial sector because it isn’t adequately regulated and the powers that be have managed to maintain opacity in vital areas, particularly securities. I am also concerned about short selling and the whole gambling thing with the large banks, I believe proprietory trading is one mechanism that is also kept in the dark.
I hope you’ll pardon me for my seeming lack of modesty but I am fortunate to have been blessed with an exceptionally gifted brain. It has languised too long in the financial arenas. I have decided that the time has come to take charge of my IRA.
If I could maintain the tax status of an IRA, I’d buy physical commodities and keep them in the mattress. I value your perspectives but am not able, yet, to purchase anything from you.

BTW, my cousin has worked for the World Bank and before that the IMF and she made all her decisions based upon intuition. I’m not saying that’s good—-I don’t think it is. I’m just saying that’s the situation.
Her husband was 2nd in command at the World Bank.

Mutual funds obvoiusly have research teams studying markets, be it technical or fundamental ! However in days like these, i think if they are just keeping it simple they should be able to profit, “common sense” would be the right the right way to put it.

I am very new to this investing. I know I have to be very aggressive in the next 12-15 years to have some to work with in retirement. I am looking to your expertise to provide some guidance. I know need to have balance. Where do I start?

Totally lost new t this and need some serious help

I believe they act by emotion and choose popular paths to invest, such as index funds where the values follow the market and a perfect excuse for performance failure is available.
As far as structuring portfolios I believe that they use the tried and tested way of associating age with portfolio balance.

I like to base my decisions on safety, demand and necessity. I am worried about all fiat currencies so a strong position in gold and silver bullion and stocks (33%) is fine with me. On the demand side, I think that the emerging countries have a huge appetite for raw material and energy such as quality coal, steel, cement, copper. I think that the appetite for lithium and cobalt is huge for hybrid batteries considering how large these batteries are and how much product they require. There are a few great opportunities in this area. I think a 33% allocation in energy suits my portfolia just fine. I also think that agriculture is a great area to invest in (people have to eat). Potash has been depressed but I think the price will rise soon and so a position in this area is also fine. I think about 20% here is good.
The rest I dabble with strategic metal and I have been looking at stem-cell companies.
I like to use stop losses and I have a very nervous feeling that a huge market correction is just around the cornor. I think that the dow looks pretty shaky and I am afraid that the baby will be thrown out with the bath water so that there will be big correction on the commody stocks as well. Huge buying opportunity on weakness for commodites coming up. The 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 day moving averages have just been taken out on gold and I am nervously watching these critical numbers.
Regards;
Louis.

I believe in having a balanced portfolio which includes some mutual funds with domestic and foreign stocks.However lately I have moved heavier into mining stocks and precious metals.I am also moving more into resourse stocks connected to Oil and agriculture.I would not think of buying Treasury Bonds as long term they may become worthless.

I am looking to place 35% in metals, 40% in natural recources,the rest in Brazil, India and China

Larry,
I very much appreciate your information, comments, and advice. I have limited time to devote to keeping up with the stock market and investing. The stock market crash caught me unawawre. I am now investing almost exclusively in precious metals and energy stocks due to past history of dollar devaluation as a result of prolonged government printing of money and economic instability. My experience of foreign market investment, though theoretically exemplary, has been that it requires inside information and careful surveilance to be successful.

In Answer to:
How do you think mutual fund money managers and Wall Street brokers and pros make these all-important decisions?
Are they just guessing? Shooting blind? Or do they have tested, reliable ways to structure portfolios that truly do minimize your risk while maximizing profit potential?

I assume that most of them..at least the good ones…. use a combination of Technical indicators and
their own research related to the performance of the individual companies, the trend of the markets served by the individual companies, and the fundamentals of the company performance as reported compared to other similar companies.

I try to use the same tools as listed above to evaluate, but probably do not spend enough time to do the best job, so I probably rely more on technical performance.

I agree with Kay 100%. I do not trust any brokers and Mutual fund managers. They always make money of us. They get their commissions wheather we make money or not. I read alot of newsletters and the internet to get different takes on paticular stocks I want to invest in. I am investing in anything that plays against the dollar. I have sold all my bonds in the last 10 days and will watch for the other shoe to drop in the stock market. That will be the time to put cash to work. I own both gold and silver.

larry what would you charge to e mail me your daily thoughts on its daily direction bob is there a cheap way to play the dollar to go up ?

Hi,

In response to todays ?’s

They are just guessing!

Shooting blind?

Ya they test, with OPM.

They reliably structure the portfolios that do minimize profit potential, while maximizing YOUR risk?
Trading in DOLLARS!!

You do know what’s happening with it by the way? Follow the trend……..

Chipolena

I view fund managers and street brokers as SALESMEN and no different that the kid on the corner selling watermelons in the summertime. Most of them (some limited exceptions) are no better at analysis that the average man on the street and supports J. Bogle’s assertion and tested findings that index funds do about as well and some times better than most individual stocks.

There are a few good fund managers out there. I was in one that doubled my money in less than a year. Of course, the fund company then moved him to a much bigger fund that used rules that meant he had to change his way of trading. After the rule changes brought about by the “timing” issue, I stopped using funds entirely. I don’t “invest” anymore. I make short term trades in sector ETF options based on technical issues.

Peter Schumacher

With the Fed Reserve monetizing 80% of the gov’t debt, complete lack of a gold standard, and $100 trillion in unfunded entitlement promises that will go unfulfilled, the coming Age will be worse than the Great Depression. I favor commodities and oil service companies exclusively. Bonds will decline in value when interest rates rise, and I question the rating of their issuers in the era of bankrupt states and manipulation of markets in general. Wall Street = The Federal Govt, who buys and sells stocks with fiat currency and affects the prices for the rest of us schmucks who use dollars earned with our sweat and creation of real wealth.
What happens when the world dumps the dollar as its reserve currency, as could happen overnight? The value of everything will crash..So what are you supposed to do? Stuff your mattresses with Mercury dimes?

Larry I have followed you for the past few months and agree with your thoughts. I do my own tracking of various stocks on a global basis. Still sold on some usa oil,gas,pipeline business as these would be the first out of the box if the economy starts to improve. Have a few foreign stocks in growth areas I am not one for manufacturing as it is a very competative world. Bonds will get killed when inflation gets momentum. People buy bonds priced beyond the call price for safety and will have lost 20-30 percent on the down side. Missed the bank run but with all the debt I had to pass it was just a pop. Great to follow you and see the trends. Regards, Lou

I know that they have terrific research available to them. They also use a diversity plan based on their objectives plus a great deal of technical and fundamental analysis. With all of this, even they flub it up at times.

My former financial manager read Investment Business Daily and the Wall Street Journal. He stated when hired that he did “in depth research” but did not discuss exactly what it was. Later, i informed him that the stocks he purchased that lost money were ALREADY DOWN due to the fact that Fund Managers had them in their portfolio already when printed in those publications. He promptly lost money and even did wash sales.

I have an annuity IRA that I do not need for living expense. The monthly payment goes back into a commodities fund IRA. Also have non IRA brokerage fund in natural resources fund. I am near 70 1/2 and upon required takeout from IRA will put into resources fund. My wife is 63 and has IRA & non IRA mutuals and stocks. We have physical silver and gold coins. I am trading currencies on a small scale. We have 35K being used in remodeling B&B house adjacent to home. 125K 5.85% Mortgage on home and 10K on pickup vehicle. Have 1k/mo rental receipts commercial real est, oil royalties and do some part time work.

I would expect the money managers and brokers to primarily utilize the opinions and analysis of the key analysts in the firm. Beyond simply incorporating the key analysts views, the individual money managers and brokers might make certain investment decisions based on their understanding of the key fundamentals and their reading of the charts. Obviously, their sophistication in fundamental analysis and technical analysis will vary widely. As we know, these individuals are primarily sales people that mostly rely on the expertise of the firm’s analysts.

Larry, I think most reputable and knowledgeable money manager use diversification with hedges on certain investments to minimize the risk. Depending on the risk tolerance of the investor.

Personally I never watched the markets enough to bother investing in stocks. I am convinced that it’s just as important to know when to buy/sell/trade stocks as is the importance of investing in ones where profits will generally exceed loses. I did have an insurance policy once that was turned into about 30 stocks by the company. I didn’t appreciate having to pay income tax on dividends. My dividends were less than $50 a year! I don’t mean to be close-minded. To each his own. I think I’ll take my chances with precious metals such as gold, palladium and silver. I’m convinced those bullion and coins are a safer long-term investment. In this day and time I think it’s also prudent to stock up on food, water (if you can keep it in peace) and be prepared to defend yourself from looters.

I started structuring my portfolio by hedging against the declining dollar by investing in gold & silver bullion and rare historic coins approx.15-20%. Then i researched several small jr. gold and silver minning companies that are already producers averaging low cost productions vs. current gold price. Then i felt should minimize risk a little more by investing into domestic companies that are expanding into emerging markets of consumer goods and comodities( 40–55%). Currently looking at the balance into energy and natural resourses that are up and coming in the next 2-3yrs. I very seldom invest on a gut feeling or what some of my fellow colleagues do. I read a heck of a lot about all sorts of investments and appreciate the extraodinary insights and experience of the Uncommon Wisdom crew. As far as mutual fund managers and wall street brokers, nobody will looks after your money better than you will. Sdavis

Question 1: Unfortunately we were wiped out by the combination of lymphoma and the disastrous effects of the housing market crash. However, if I had resources I would invest in reputable companies that had no budget to influence government policies. The solution of the U.S. economic problem will not come from the government or companies treated with favour by the government. Government printing of dollars will do nothing but make questionable gains look good. In what would I invest? Firstly, gold and the exploration for and development of gold sources will be the most stable even though the the profit, in dollars, may not reflect its value. Secondly, manufacturers and technology produced in more stable countries economically such as Israel.

Question 2: At this point, being concerned with the total collapse of the U.S. economy, I would invest about 60% in gold, 30% in technology, and 10% in medical care (as a hedge that the U.S. survives the “Medical Reform” that is being pushed on American Citizens)

This weeks questions -
Question 1. I gave up on mutual funds years ago. Me feeling is that many decisions are the result of one manage making a good case for an approach and the rest just following their lead. Sure I believe most of them believe their method is good for their customers. Just as the proponents of “Climate Change” believe the human race can affect it. I notice we still can’t even predict the weather or earthquakes. So whether they use charting, cyclic analysis, or just the old fashioned gut, managers will miss something.

Brokers and mutual fund managers have disappointed me in the past; I now gamble without someone taking a drag from the pot; and Erin is my muse.

Mutual fund managers are constrained by the objectives of the particular fund. Most have to stay nearly fully invested at all times. Brokers are mainly concerned with generating commissioms, or else they go with a conventional stocks/bonds/cash allocation. Pros probably have tried and true methods that they use, at least for their own accounts.

Hi Larry!

I have the utmost respect for you and believe everything you say because you have the experience and intellect—and most likely adequate intuition—to derive correct financial and economic answers.
However, besides using your fundamentals, technical analysis and study of cycles, I also include astrology, numerology and even the spiritual interpretation and meaning of the so-called Mayan Sacred Calendar that few people truly understand and induces them to fixate on an end date of December 21, 2012, which is really not connected with a “doomsday” scenario.

This is why I have been telling people that I feel there will be “panic buying” of gold and silver before November 2nd, and astrology is revealing a terrible global scenario (not so much for Asia) for much of this year, with the planetary aspects for July as being quite foreboding.
Like most scientifically-minded males, I always thought astrology was nonsense until I was confronted with the philosophical statement: Criticism, without investigation, is the height of ignorance! Hence, I’ve studied and applied it for many years, with very positive results.

To answer your second question, I believe that at least 50% to 100% of funds should be invested in gold and silver (especially silver) because any other “commodity” may not be a “sure thing” this year.

Bill Maynard, Bomoseen, VT

well, Larry i think they have tested and reliable ways to minimazing risk and maximizing potential profit

1. Depending on the fund there are multiple levels of sophistication from quant formulas to research per se.

Precious metals - mostly gold, some silver, and their stocks: 10% of liquid assets (protection)
Energy stocks- many pay good dividends: 20% (gotta have power)
Other income stocks, ‘good’ ideas, sell calls, non-dollar plays, bonds: 20% (growth and income?)
Cash:50% (not worth much, but good to have)

Hi Larry,
interesting question, but in reality, I don’t invest in mutual funds, nor do I invest
with any full service brokers. I’m afraid, due to many past experiences, that most
only “push” equities “du jour”.
Perhaps that’s why more individual investors are taking the task into their own
hands!

I believe that the Wall Street Investment firms pick to line their pockets. I do not trust any of them.
I do not believe they are shooting blind. I believe they have a end result that they are aiming for, and my best interest is not a part of their plan. If it was, they would not continue to lie about the state of the economy, the solvency of the banking institutions etc, the reliability of the US dollar.

How are YOU deciding whether you’ll invest in
(1) domestic and foreign stocks,
Depends on the Real GDP and projected GDP. Most advanced countries have been posting GDP growth rates at or slightly above inflation. Read negligible growth.
(2) gold bullion and other precious metals,
The increase in Money supply is taking place at an unheard of pace. (That is what we hear)
During such periods, tangible assets and resources like food etc will hold value or become more expensive.
(3) energy and natural resources,
In case discussed above money (MM’s) will come in and go out of certain classes of commodities
At the moment Natural gas is at historical lows and could explode
(4) foreign currencies and/or (
Currencies are succeptible to major changes due to events beyond our control I would shun currency
5) bonds in 2010?
Returns on classical bonds are low and returns in junk bonds are high. I do not understand this market so I do not invest in this class of products
Question #2: How do you know how much of your money to invest in each area?
In current market it is tricky

I have gained a lot of insight on investments from your blogs and videos. I can not afford to squander my money I work too hard for it.I am trying to learn how to work smarter not harder. The number one thing I look for is if the product; if it is renewable.The next thing I do is research various companies that offer that product. I watch the markets and rate of return on the product. Chart and watch. I have a tendecy to avoid stocks that indicate extremes. I try to buy low and sell high just like anyone else that tries to hedge their bets with investments. What I find extremely difficult is exactlty when to buy and when to sell. Of course diversification of investments is a must during our current economic climate. I do not feel comfortable in foreign investments even though they are the emerging forces currently at work. I have a tendency to invest conservatively. I lost my shirt during 9/11 and recently again when the market hit over ten and then had hickups with the housing collaspe , the diminishing returns to the dollar and I have started to unvest in stocks in democratic socities only ,new product medical,drugs,and new technologies. Currently annuities are not paying enough interest so I have taken some money out of this area and have re-invested in a few muncipal bonds. I did this because of the various government pay outs for shovel ready projects. One thing I have learned is no market or currency is fool proof. The remainder I have invested in gold,silver and cooper. As far as wallstreet as long as the broker makes his commission they could care less. It still operates with the ole buds club principle.

Hi Larry,

You and associates are providing excellent insights into the current world markets and investment values to be derived therefrom. We are looking into investing, for the first time, into gold bullion and into foreign (Asian) investments (most likely the technology ones I saw such as Shanda, about which your colleague gave insight. Thanks for keeping us informed, Larry!

I rely mostly on instinct. History repeats itself, so the debasement of our currency and the prospect of serious inflation prompts me to invest in precious metals and other commodities for the long term.

A few mutual funds are managed by experienced people (that is, managers who have successfully operated the fund for more than say; ten years). Look at Neuberg-Berman Genesis trust for one example. There one sees a steady, principled approach - with fairly low turnovers of their holdings, and a decent cash position at all times.
Most Mutuals, however, are forever “chasing the Golden Fleece,” and their 5 and 10 year results usually show it. Those mutuals operate like day traders on the market floor - not a good thing for the long term investor, as expenses (commissions) taxes, and inflation eats most of the money made, IF any.
All I can say is that I MADE 4% in 2009 primarily by ignoring the pundits (whose positions and predictions changed at least daily, if not more often). The net - net - net is probably about 1.5%, still not bad for 2009. On the other hand I missed the opportunity to buy gold at under $400! So I’m really not that bright after all, am I?

Some funds seem to get it right a good deal of the time & others just make a cut above the small person investing from home. I was told by a found manager once that you should never look for the top to sell & make money, all ways leave some upward movment for next person & never wait for the bottom to buy as thats to hard to pick. We are still in that found, as for myself some of what he said to us & a gut feeling but playing it slowly

Have been a mostly successful investor for over 30 years, I do know that while market research is an important ingredient for brokers or money managers trying to decide whether to back a stock, the bottom line is their own annual profit.

How do you think mutual fund money managers and Wall Street brokers and pros make these all-important decisions?
From what I was able to glean on a quick search on the net, they use “hunch power” and experience, and have a not-so-bad success rate based on that.
Are they just guessing? Shooting blind? Or do they have tested, reliable ways to structure portfolios that truly do minimize your risk while maximizing profit potential?
The information I was able to gather on that was hazy.

Larry,

Like with all investments one must do due diligence before they make any type of investment. When it comes to Mutual Funds there are so many out there you must chose the fund that agrees with your own investment strategy. I belive that the Mutual Funds have their own investment personalities and have their own strategies that they follow and they have high power people that they go to for the information. With that said I think most Mutual Funds are caught in the high turn over game to enrich corporate compensation. As far as brokers they are just the house in a huge casino. They carry the knowlege but that knowlege is generally used against the players. Keep up the good work on your end. -G. Ward

Fidelity wins the Miss Managers contest. I think their plan is to make commissions for themselves. I don’t trust them anymore and have taken all of my money out of all of the funds THEY decided I should have my money in. I would recommend people put their money in a ROTH and dump the 401k/403b rip off. I didn’t have a choice, now there is one. I pay attention to Nilus Mattive , so far, so good there. Of course, I bought in at the bottom, so there really was no other place to go, but up. I also listen to what they are saying on Morning Star, TopStock Portfolio, and Motley Fool, as well as the Uncommon Wisdom team. I belong to the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, but I think that was a mistake.

When 2 or 3 of them recommend the same thing I then do some more research. Basically, I am buying dividend paying stocks, companies that are globally positioned (the US is on its way out), and trying to diversify by sector, focusing more on the tangible rather than the intangible. Right now I think things are priced too high, so I am more careful about what I am purchasing.

I believe that fund managers will do an amount of research and the more conservative fund managers will invest based on the research. Others will feel the need to beat the market and will be prepared to take greater risks (ie with your money they have nothing to lose but reputation) and use gut or gambling instinct.

Regards

Larry - i think these guys primarily look at income statements and read news about what the companies are doing. They probably need to have support staff providing research that can validate decisions. I also think to many decisions are made based on sales incentives and relationships with cronies.

At 61 years, after losing all confidence in the market to protect my retirement, I moved two places. Physical holding precious metals and a banking policy through Mass Mutual. The banking policy provides guarantees of no more downside, and contractual growth that I have complete control of. I can now, with certainty, move toward 70% annual ROI with guarantees. I have liquidity, tax free withdraws, tax free retirement that’s predictable and certain, and tax free disbursement to heirs.
As to the stock market. I believe now, anyone who has their retirement in the market is in serious jeopardy. We have not seen the worst.
I am letting my security license lapse. I know to much how the majority of stocks are picked for the unsophisticated investor and why. I am awake and deeply troubled by the lack of education most Americans enjoy about their money, and how failed philosophies are being perpetuated.
Sorry Larry, but you asked. Twice.

I have three paid advisors including yourself, and Tony Sagami. You guys tell me what to do and I do it.

I believe that most Wall Street analysts, in recommending where to make investments for 2010, will first look at the overall economic growth projections for various countries for the year ahead. To this, they will add factors such as political risk, economic stability, currency strength, and GDP growth history. Once they have determined which countries offer the most economic growth potential for the coming year, they will attempt to identify the sectors of that country’s economy which will benefit the most. It is these sectors, in high GDP growth countries, that they will earmark for investment. Some of their investment recommendations will be for specific companies in identified high growth sectors, or ETF’s that target the same. Other investment recommendations will be for specific companies in the US, or in other countries, which are multinational, and feed into the sales/purchase cycles of the high growth counrties and their associated high growth sectors. Deciding how much to invest, and where, will be a function of one’s overall risk tolerance, and the relative weighting of the economic growth strength of the various countries and sectors analyzed. The biggest question for 2010 is whether the economic recession that has gripped the western world wll relent …or continue. Depending on how one answers that question will be a signifcant determinent in deciding where to invest.

I have been listening to and reading from various financial advisors like YOU. I have been mentally averaging what they have been saying and making my choices based on those averages. That way, I figure that I am benefiting from the experience of several very different financial views. Not everyone has been promoting Asian and Gold type investments, but enough have that they make sense right now. I only have time for four advisor websites at this point in time.

Q1- Until the jobs situation improves (and the real numbers indicate such) my allocations are in low/no risk investments; T-bills, FDIC insured accounts, etc. I think China could be forming a bubble.

Q2- Yes, but since the FED, Wall Street, all governements, etc. have proven their untrustworthiness to be honest my options are limited. Another reason, I only have a small time left before retirement. Preservation is more important than profit at this stage of my time line to be able to recover from loses.

Bill C.

I have tried investing in companies I believe in, using a sort of moral compass to guide me. While I may have felt good about the companies I invested in, I have often lost money. In more recent years I have relied on an investment advisor who has recommended diversity of asset allocation. Most of my investments are in mutual funds and although in theory the funds are managed by professionals who allegedly know what they are doing, I feel as if I am a cork afloat in an ocean and nobody can really guide the outcome of my journey towards retirement. Commodities have always frightened me because of the hihg risk. Most financial advisors seem to want to sell something they get a commission on.

#1. Allocations.
1. 10% options on indexes, 10% Canadian natural resources
2. 40% silver bullion, 25% gold bullion
3. 3% nuclear energy, 2% geothermal energy
4, 0%
5. 0%
Rest in cash

#2 Stay away from any long term investment in US dollars. Bullion is a major growth area since inflation is cooked in the books. All markets are being manipulated by the US government, the US Federal Reserve Bank, and large banks. Play the longer trends as paper money and investments denominated in paper money are demolished by inflation. Look what the US Fed has done to the value of the US dollar, basically worthless in less than 100 years. Also why pay taxes on gains that are not real but only the inflation of the dollar.

I assume that many are cautious in recommending investments, have criteria they use that put them in a position to make judgments they feel are valid.but they have to warn that they could err. Then there are those who concerned primarily with making gains for themselves or their firm and are less concerned about the accuracy of their predictions.

I could not care less about how mutual fund money managers choose their stocks. Based upon last years results, they only care about beating their index to maximize their bonuses.

I generally (but with a few exceptions that I won’t burden you with) use fundamentals to select stocks, and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points. I have few long stock positions just now as I took profits a few weeks back. I keep about 70% in cash but use a lot of options, primarily put spreads (short) over the last year which has brought in premium and seldom resulted in assignment. Things could be changing tho so I am “sitting on hands” just now and doing “homework” to adjust my strategies based on market direction. I don’t get crazy with a lot of indicators but use 50, 150 and 200 day simple moving averages on a daily time frame. I feel there is much opportunity around the corner and continue to look closely at China, Brazil etc… as well as hard commodities, energy and gold along with a few select areas of the tech sector. I see this “correction” as possibly more than a “healthy” one. I feel panic plays a large part in some of these larger moves down, resulting from news etc, and there could be a spot of that heading our way. My approach is very simple but it has been working (knock on wood!). Staying calm and pragmatic is what I try to adhere to. Control the downside as the saying goes,.. I like to sleep at night.

I have had some mutual funds suggested by my broker (I have a different one now) that have been real dogs!
I would hope that they study and have some system by which they accomplish their business but I wonder.
Now I have started reading, listening to you about growth in China and trying to educate myself in order to
make better choices. I feel that you are correct in pushing commodities but I like to hear about small to
mid caps also. Do you think the future will be more of a short holding period and then sell?

If Mutual Fund Money Managers had “tested, reliable ways to structure portfolios that truly do minimize your risk while maximizing profit potential” we would only ever see investment performance reports with positive results. Obviously, this is not the case and the exponential growth in the number of mutual fund options has only made the arena of investing more complex. Seems like there is a Mutual Fund for almost everything under the sun except maybe sports teams…

Fact is, we are on our own to make the ultimate investment decisions and have live with the consequences. The sources of intelligence to make these decisions are vast and often conflicting. My opinion is investors lean towards the guidance that fits the individual’s perspectives, level of comfort/trust in the advisor and appetite for risk.

Personally, I read several advisors with Global perspective and invest based on the current economic facts and projections that make sense to me considering business, government direction/leadership and what the “reserve bank” equivalents are doing with the money. My risk appetite is moderate and I firmly believe compounding is the essence of investment growth and therefore invest on the basis of total returns.

I anticipate most mutual fund and money market managers invest in less volatile equities, and have hedges for protection. In addition, I anticipate they have both technical tools and extended research teams to provide data for decision-making. I do not believe they go into decisions blind. Now, that being said, the funds I have in my 401k (those I can select, but not otherwise manage as I do in my IRA) did not fall as much as my IRA in March 2009. However, I beat all of the funds for the year, doubling the % increase for my IRA of the combined funds for the 401k. So I have to call into question if their data is any better than what I can find in a relatively short period of time, and if their decision-making is based more on maintenance fees vs. real fund performance. (To be fair, the 401k is ahead of me by 4.5% YTD for 2010 . . . for now).

Larry, what’s your take on Gold & Silver over the next three month’s? Will there be a resumption of the upward move?

I try to stick with investing in a variety of mutual funds, as I have been burned in the past investing with individual stocks. My general objective is to invest worldwide with emphasis on Asia-Pacific and natural resources and to avoid focusing on only US investments. When the crash of my bond fund (14.8%) seems imminent, I will likely transfer to more natural resources or gold. Since the positions of mutual funds constantly change, I’m not sure of all of the percentages of my investments in various catagories. I am not an expert investor by any means and would welcome suggestions. Since March of 2009, my bottom line increased by 67%. Below find my current investments by percentage:
GLD 6.4%
CWGIX 25,6%
AEPGX 22.7%
GDX 2.9%
CWBFX 14.8%
SLV 2.0%
FXI 3.9%
XME 8,0%
IGAAX 5.2%
NEWFX 5.1%
GHAAX 3.4%

Pros use sophisticated tools to analyze percentages based on your age, requirements or risk, retirement age, etc.. My concern is that they do not suggest the best investments for their clients. What scares me is that so many got caught in the stock bubble and didn’t protect their clients. I would love to compare their recommendations to their own portfolios.

A grand overview:
Is it possible that the markets are primarily driven by greed? I believe this is the case. Greed is a subset of selfishness. If the whole world economy is driven by selfishness, what lasting hope remains? Spock once said, “The needs of many outweigh the needs of the few” - but the market does not act on this premise. Selfishness as a core attribute of positive action will one day fail completely. Perhaps the Bible prophet Ezekiel was right when he said, “Into the streets they will throw their very silver, and an abhorrent thing their own gold will become. Neither their silver nor their gold will be able to deliver them in the day of Jehovah’s fury” (Ezekiel 7:19).

Hi Larry, It seam reasonable to assume they use clearly structured plans, but I have no idea what they would be. As an untrained amateur I’m just trying to build up reasonable diversification. I personally would like a plan but I struggle to see how it would be flexible to the world’s changing financial circumstances.

Dear Larry,

I live in Iran and doing future business of GOLD and COPPER.
I trust you and your colleage Sean Brodrick and usually invest on your believes.

Would be pleased to be updated about any future trends of commodity and metal’s market to chose the right position.
I was short on both Gold & Copper.
Shall I change my position now? or be waiting for higher USD index about 79.

Hope to have chance to meet you some day in some places in the world.

Yours/Mansor.

I am pulling out my IRA and paying the taxes( only 10% = tax rate today, who knows about tomarrow)
1/3 in and out of everbanks CD,s indexed in forign currencies
1/3 in and out of etf’s , or stocks , mainly commodity based or what ever is set up( I use volume on monthly basis as a major indicator and cot index)
1/6 +/-some in silver, platnium,gold. but considering lead, zinc, and copper.
1/6 +/_ cash
I am unattached to the banking industry, no debt, no mortages,
and unattached to the media and dissaprove of what our polaticans have done to America.

I began as a fundamentalist…..evolved to a chartist…became an investolator and eventually have discovered what I call the DaVinci code of investing…it is a combination of looking at charts from a technical analysis point of view and identifying “pelicans,” “DaVinci’s,” “reverse DaVinci’s,” “new tupperware…..combining a look at earnings, RSI’s, MACD’s ADX’s and CMF’s…..I am quite sure that these terms are too homespun for sophisticated investors, but I worked for a mega-bank when the earath was green and didn’t agree with the mutual fund approach of owning everyone on the planet and hoping the market is strong for the next 30 years……not a true contrarian in style……but the goal is to make dough on every trade.

Larry, how about a little diversification……where are the comments from the woman? I enjoy investing, but unlike your male respondents there is more thinking than “gut” involved. I use a guideline of about 5% of the portfolio in a single stock, twice as much in an ETF or fund, more if there is a trend established as there is presently in natural resources and some of the emerging markets. I always consult the charts and history available before taking action. Instinct is nice, but information is prudent. In the final analysis a bit of luck in timing helps as the markets will do what they do and I think we all know what that is….they go up and they go down.

Answer #1: I don’t have a “macro-type” strategy to know whether I should invest in one or all of the areas suggested. Presently, I am overweighted in Canadian natural resources, precious metals
and precious metals equities.
Answer #2: Knowing the best weighting is always a problem for me. I never know until I look back a few months/years later! I feel I should have an Emerging Markets weighting, but how much is about right, 5% - 10%?

Larry,
I am one of those many people out here that has never really invested before. Due to the current economic situation and the federal administration that is currently in place, I think that I have no choice but to start educating myself as to what is the best investment and I am basing a lot of my investing on your nemail newsletters. Some of the investments frighten me, but I am religiously investing in natural resources and gold bullion. For those of us who know from nothing, give us easy, yet diversified investments that are very conservative.

Thanks,
Patricia

and for question #2. It is not that hard to determine where to invest your money you put in the stocks with a steady rise . and how much you put in is determined by if you want to gain money or loose . I for one would invest about 25% in each stock so you know you are making a good profit all around and you cant go wrong.

Larry: I listen to Bloomberg, CNBC, and I read your e-mails, and must say that I agree with much of what you say. I beleive the national debt is insurmountable as long as the people in this Country stand with their hand out and our politicians “gratify” themselves by increasing the foreign aid. Just look at Detroit, Cleveland, and New York; then look at Hiroshima, and Nagasaki. Capitalism is pure freedom. Freedom to make wise decisions about our financial decisions and our future retirement and educational needs are ours to plan, not our neighbors to pay for in higher taxes. I firmly believe that the Wall Street pundits offer what they believe allows our way of life to continue on until such a point that greed destroys us in the legal system and professional field of “finanical instruments”. I really digest all the information within my own mind and look to common sense to direct my purchases. I really love your professional presentations with such detail as to the dollar and Gold.

Good Morning Larry,
I have been following your charts and write-ups regularly.
For 2010, my best picks on investments in that order will be (1) Silver (2) Platinum (3) Australian$
(4) Gold (5) Commodity Index (6) Auto Ancilliary Stocks in India.
Regards … Vickram

You want the truth, you can’t handle the truth. Ha! Ok Ok Once again my attempt at a feeble financial opinion.

Sometimes it’s not hard to lose sight of the big picture by getting lost in the details. Yes! Everybody does have something to sell. And, no we really can’t trust the numbers when very little has changed with respect checks and balance and common morality. So much coming from the news and all government’s numbers is just plain not true. The matrix of reliable financial residuals is mostly reduced to a statical probably. So what do we really know, and what is common knowledge:

The US and many other Governments have out of control spending and money printing. And, many officials don’t perceive or understand the financial and geo political projected results. Even those emerging countries with disciplined balance sheets are having difficulty navigating to safe ports.

So the largest transfer is wealth in the history of mankind with produce large opportunities for profit making for a few and complete financial destruction for the majority. One thing many agree on is the dollar will be devalued a great deal along with many other national currencies. A fast reduction or slow reduction will bring profit and loss opportunities. Those who have distain for US abundance will say we deserved it. And, many will look to China’s wealth and say they had an unfair advantage by a lack of currency adjustments. It’s not uncommon to pick on the hostess with the mostest. And her desert is not available on every menu. Anyway you look at it, we will have to move to a one-world currency to “reset” the financial system. I call this the big “R”. Most would like to believe that there is a preordained implementation plan. Ha! All national entities will want the big “R” wired to their financial advantage. I’m sure the WTO and WB have plans in place. But I doubt weather countries like China, Russia, and others with bulging balance sheets will agree to the terms. We could see how unified everybody is by looking at the last climate summit.

Ok! Ok! What implications does the big “R” hold for your stock portfolio? Fast or slow, countries will grab control of all physical assets within reach. Protectionism in key political sectors at first will result if the change is slow. International capital and credit markets will move from the international level to a national level. There will be a division of national interest based on this change. Current defense spending may identify the new alignment. Where does each country purchase their advanced aircraft? Mostly countries that are broke will want the new currency and forgiveness of past debts. Access to credit markets will become very national and political. The flow of essential goods and services will be painfully and slowly redefined. No country will be insulated from the possible social unrest to follow. A big question is: what industrial and economic base can survive the big “R”. Most likely, those with the most political clout, and those with essential means to restore and maintain a coherent social structure will survive. Many western companies could become bankrupt due to lack of capital funding. Defense spending will sky rocket. Shortages of food, water, and medical care will be the defining issue as to who maintains a national political structure. What does history show us from previous resets? And, what sectors are profitable? Moving from a closed society to an open society is generally profitable. And, moving from a open society to a closed society can be devastating. Twenty One Million people starved to death when Russia closed. And, in China, Sixty Five Million people starved to death. Escaping these changes from one country to another is gambling at best. If you’re going to relocate, do so now. Nationalism and a reversal of immigration polices will become more predominate. Will a one-world currency be successful in opening all nations to equal trade, and an open cultural shift? Change is upon us now. It’s no longer a distance childhood expectation. Best to settle in a community of high moral fabric and abundant natural resources. And remember, the educated communicate, negotiate, compromise, and have realistic expectations. We can expect capitalistic suppressed technologies and patens will be released and developed for the common good. Firstly the changes will be in the defense sectors. Large changes will happen in the US transportation sectors. The current gold prices are being suppressed until physical holdings are allocated to controlling invisible interest. Look for new energy sources to emerge and replace the current oil controlling interest. Anyway you look at it, all asset classes will be redistributed. The individual does not control, own, and hold what is expected.

The biggest lessons learned by all will include: You only keep what you give away. When we don’t give to others we steal from ourselves. And, the only thing we take from this life is the love and forgiveness we share with others.

“Martin” Thanks for the heads up on the current short. Hopefully I’ll react in a timely manner. And, thanks for your recent publications that aid in helping the common man be prepared for the changes.

DavyGene

(1) domestic and foreign stocks
That an easy question - where can i invest with lowest risk of loss and maximize profits.
Note that in today environment being fluid with your investments allows one to move in and out of various investment classes. Example if the MSCI Emerging Market Index is starting to look bearish which would call for a move into EDZ (to me looks that way for the short term). When it bottoms or starts to recover then move to the EEM. “fluid”

(2) gold bullion and other precious metals,
I have been moving into gold and silver since the mid 1990 (the actual medals. Currently about 15% of portfolio, however, note did not invest that much has grown to that %. However, at certain times can move as much as 50% of portfolio into SLV, GLD and mining stocks, have lot of cash to make play here wihen it hits the lower supports and holds. (what happening in this mkt only happen maybe two time a year).

(3) energy and natural resources,
I do believe that energy cost and natural resources will rise in price in the long term. However, it is hard for me to follow the money in the energy sector. The charts and volumne do not work like the metals. I believe that I can do better in other places where the risk and rewards are easier to determine at the present time. Example the banking sector is a short for a while. Note there will be a time when I move to energy not yet - peak oil is here but demand is down.(for how long)?

foreign currencies and/or (5) bonds in 2010?
There are a lot of factor that play into the currencies with a lot of surprises going both ways. However, long term trend seem to remaining constant like the dollar and the US goverment creating money. Most of my plays in currencies are with metals and forgien stock. Bonds what a joke. In this crountry there is only one way interest rate can go and that is up. Buying bonds at the present is setting youself up for huge losses.(mid and long term) TIPS could be ok maybe. (but remember who set the rate here).

Question #2: How do you know how much of your money to invest in each area?
Sometimes all of it. Following the big money.

Larry, I like your information and your charts. Thank you for sharing. However, for me with all the bogus information the goverments around the world are putting out on sales, employment, GDP, etc…. it is hard to invest with any degree of confident based upon that data. My biggest problem is that I see problems or oppurunities and it takes the markets 6 month to a year to react. Example commerical RE in US. Check out the IYR and the SRS.

My previous response to Larry’s question never got through his moderation process. I’ll try to do it shorter this time, hoping that he doesn’t throw this out just because he isn’t willing to publish ideas critical of his own.

I think fund advisers are just as much in the dark as the rest of us. I’ve studied economics for over 30 years around the edges of my engineering profession. I have NEVER seen evidence that technical forecasting or econometric models do a better job of guiding investors than wetting one’s finger and sticking it into the wind. On the other hand, there’s plenty of evidence that day traders, penny stock analysts and private investors who try to predict major market movements tend to die broke. Commodity traders go broke even quicker than the rest of us.

Wall street brokers and investment advice gurus seem to be the only folks who consistently make money in the markets. In my opinion, they thrive by taking their commissions up front and staying out of the markets on which they advise clients. At best, it’s the blind leading the blind. At worst, it’s an outright con game or Ponzi scheme.

Economic advice isn’t “free”. It can kill you. Having lost a bundle by following the advice of a prominent gold bug in 1982, I’m now leery of advisers who predict gold at $3,000 or $5,000 per ounce in the next few years. I’ve heard that story before, and it didn’t happen! Conditions that produce such outcomes seem likely to produce the collapse of many major world currencies and the demise of the world trading system. If that happens, then *nothing* is reliable.

So we’re mostly out of the stock and bond markets, with our retirement funds distributed across several short term bank CDs and money market funds. Our home is mortgage-free and we pay off our credit cards every month. And if the fires come, we live a good distance from urban centers, among neighbors whose marksmanship is just as good as my own.

Regards,

25% of my portfolio is China, 25% junior minors and 25% gold and platinum, and 25% cash waiting to short US equities

Hello Folks ,
The Subject of inflation or deflation in USA and Bangkok. The only thing I can see on the street is deflation last year gas went to a 1.40 it is now about 2.35 but cheaper than most countries . Of course housing is much cheaper . It seems everything is cheap here and th only reason I can come up with is noone has any money to buy things . I remember paying 16 dollars for a large pizza at pizza hut now it’s 10 dollars unlimited toppings . Look at burger king 1 dollar quarter pound burgers .
I just came back from Bangkok where I have lived 6 months out of the year for the past 15 years and it sure isn’t that cheap there anymore . Some cold beers at my favorite hangout used to be 70 baht they are now 145 baht . The dollar only buys 32 to one dollar now it used to give 42 a couple years ago . Pack of Marlboro used to be 40 baht now its 75 baht . Oh and check out the apartment prices these days we used to have a 4 bedroom 5 bath with maids quarters for 20,000 baht you can’t touch it for 80,0000 baht a month these days . Houseing is much cheaper in Colorado . Cars in the usa are rock bottom trying buying the same car in Thailand for that cheap of a price . Although I do always Miss my second home and wish i was back in the Buddist country with the longest ruling king on record and country that has never been colonized . All I can say it’s cheap in America but I wish I was working in Thailand even with the inflation . So Larry if you can drum a job for me doesn’t have to be alot get me outta here please .
All the best

Larry,

You are always talking about gold; What about silver? I have a substantial poor man`s stake in physical silver bullion as a hedge against inflation. It is easier for me to aquire because of the price and no paper trail.

Am I going, somewhat, in the right direction? I would hate to think when the ship hits the sand my investment would go down with the ship!

Thanks, Mike

I don’t know if this is the place to ask this but how do you thing the Statoil stock will do? And is there a long term way to hedge against the US $? I am in Canada and if the US goes down so will Canada.

Re how do mutual funds etc choose how to invest funds. i read an interesting book called Warrior Trading by Clifford Bennett who is a currency expert and runs a FX research house in Sydney. He says basically the big firms get all their ecoomists together an figure out what the main trends are for the ecomony and different sectors them they come up with a compromised consesus- a comittee decides. This is why they so often get it wrong since they settle for a consensus view that is influenced by the crowd. By taking a different and accurate view of likely outcomes for economies there is the potential for great REWARD.
Thanks Larry for your excellent work! Keep it up!

Re how do I decide how to invest. Every person has there own personal finger print on how to invest etc it is unique. i primarily look at the major long term trends in the world and invest in short term for the long term. Trading houses have so much leverge that influences prices that the market is extremely volatile. So long term trends are China rising to become the biggest economy, this follows that natural resources will be in demand. Energy is running short. Soverign debt risk for european countries and mabey USA is in a big uptrend and will continue..
So I am long everything China is short-Coal, Iron ore,copper,gold, Oil. I am long Gold since it will go up in the long term (it might get down to 1000 an ounce can you handle that??)
I have been investing /trading for 9 years and tried just about eveything. What I have learned is the biggest issue for investing is your PSYCHOLOGY, and secondly MONEY MANAGEMENT are you fearful now as your gold investments go down -of cource you are, and so are 90% of all other investors/traders that are in the market since 90% of all mum and Dads loose to the other 5% of experienced effective investors /traders. Its a cruel hard world out there YOU have to be equiped to handle it or else get out while you can! However you can learn, Guys like Larry are very good but not infallinble if he is wrong about a strategy and you loose do not BLAME him its your investment make your own decisions and learn from your mistakes!! So now is the time to know your investing strategy learn to go against the fear and also learn to go against the greed at the top of the market that makes you buy when prices are high. Nothing has changed the long term trend for Gold is up. Also natural resources are headed up in the long term. Managing greed at the tops and fear at the bottoms is THE major issue (assuming you have the right money management in place so that you are not overleveraged)

Larry,

Just read your recent blog in which you advised that you are still bullish on Gold however we may see one or two months of poor performance. I have followed your forecasts on Gold and have done well. On a strictly technical basis and listening to your words of wisdom I also added to my Gold investments when it fell below its recent resistance levels. My question is, with the volatility that Gold has demonstated is a considerable correction in sight and should I consider reducing my position.

“Many say this is a fictitious form of wealth, and a strategy that is doomed to create another crisis down the road, namely hyperinflation. I say, yes, there are risks to it. But for the most part I agree that it’s the only way out for the U.S. Inflate asset prices … create (or re-create) wealth via asset inflation … and then that wealth will go back into the economy, spurring entrepreneurship, new businesses, new technologies, and more.”
Larry, what are you talking about here? how can the way out come from printing money? how is wealth created this way?

Dear Mr Edelson, Almost immediately after I posted my response last night, I saw the article from 06Jan10 by Claus Vogt in the Weiss Moneyand Markets letter. I agree with Mr Vogt even if I don’t have all the expertise in researching all this stuff as y’all seem to. I believe it was Ben Franklin that said You can make all the people believe some of the time, Some of the people all of the time, but you can’t make all the people believe all the time. I am one of those that the more pushed I feel about certain views/infomation, the more suspicious I become. And You and Weiss all certianly push and push and push! nvm :>\]