Yesterday the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2009 and said it expected Chinese oil consumption to increase after the Olympics. Chinese demand “will likely rebound” with the lifting of measures to curb pollution during the Olympics, it said.
Chinese oil demand is expected to increase 5.7% next year as consumers in the world’s fastest-growing major economy spend more on travel.
“We’re still looking at a pretty buoyant picture in 2008, 2009 in China,” David Fyfe, the IEA’s supply analyst, said in a telephone interview. “We are seeing a two-tiered market” with emerging economies surging and developed markets flagging.
The IEA increased its forecast by 70,000 barrels to 87.8 million barrels a day. It projects demand growth for 2009 at 1.1%, while the rate for this year remains unchanged at 0.9 percent.
This comes as no surprise to me. Demand from Asia, particularly China, should not be underestimated. And I still think the IEA’s estimates are way too low.
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