Jan 6, 2009, BEIJING (REUTERS) — China’s economy will probably grow by about 8 percent this year, the central bank’s research bureau and other economists forecast on Tuesday, the latest expressions of confidence that authorities can engineer a soft landing.
Many independent analysts have predicted a sharp slowdown for the world’s fourth-largest economy, to as little as 5 percent, as factory output growth grinds to a halt and exports shrink in the face of falling demand in the United States and Europe.
However, government officials and researchers have begun to centre on the view that China can maintain growth of 8 percent this year — the pace Beijing considers necessary to create enough new jobs to preserve social stability.
The research bureau of the People’s Bank of China added its voice to that consensus, saying it expects a relatively modest slowdown from its estimate of 9.3 percent growth for all of 2008. The economy expanded by 9.9 percent from a year earlier in the first nine months of 2008.
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