http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a.6u.EHUlfm8
My Opinion: With interest rates at rock bottom levels across the world and asset levels plummeting to record lows, the appeal of the Japanese carry trade is all but gone. This has been evident for several months as investors unwound their positions, resulting in a greater demand for yen which pushed it to decade high levels. Consequently, Japanese exports suffered immensely as they became more expensive, costing the economy jobs and trade revenue.
This appears to be ending as the yen has dropped 8.8% to 98Y/USD since January with analysts predicting further falls to 102Y/USD. While this is a result of declining confidence in Japan and its politicians, the yen falling below the 100 level can positively impact export driven corporations. Breaching such a psychologically important level can boost the competitive advantage of Japanese goods sold abroad as they will appear cheaper.
While the structures of certain Japanese companies will not allow them to fully take advantage of this situation, there are some that will positively benefit from a weaker yen. Firms with limited to no exposure to foreign debt and price sensitive products will benefit the most as their cost structures remain intact while their revenues increase.
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- Bank of Japan Must Devalue Yen (02/17/09)
- China Is Now The World’s Second Largest Economy (12/28/09)
- More evidence of what I’ve been saying about what’s going to happen to the dollar … (10/26/09)
