Click here to answer now!
Dear Investor,
It may be the single most important question you’ll ever answer as an investor: How do YOU know which asset classes are most likely to generate the greatest profits in the months ahead?
How do you decide what percentage of your money should be invested in domestic and foreign stocks?
In gold bullion and other precious metals?
In energy and other natural resources?
In foreign currencies?
In bonds?
Get this one question right and you’ll have an “unfair” advantage over nearly every investor on Wall Street. You will have taken a huge step towards making 2010 a banner year — perhaps one of your best ever.
Look: Everybody knows that a rising tide lifts all boats. Just keep your money in the strongest asset classes and you’ll have a huge tailwind all year long. Even if the individual stocks, bonds and funds you buy within each investment area aren’t home runs, you’re still likely to come out smelling like a rose.
Plus, if you diversify your money across the assets that are most likely to rank #1, #2 and #3 in performance this year, you can invest more in the most promising asset classes, progressively less in the others, for the likelihood of even better overall results.
In short, you can build an intelligently diversified portfolio that helps protect you against losses and also gives you world-beating profit potential.
Please do NOT underestimate the importance of getting this right. If you get it wrong — if you have too much money in the wrong asset class — you’ll be bucking mighty headwinds all year long. Any gains you make in one area could easily be wiped out by losers in another. Worse, if you get stuck with too much money in an asset class that crashes, you could lose 30% to 50% of your money or even more.
So today, I need to know how we can better help you build a truly diversified portfolio that focuses your money on the types of investments most likely to soar in the months ahead.
Just click here and leave a comment to give me your answers to these two, crucial questions:
Question #1: How are YOU deciding whether you’ll invest in (1) domestic and foreign stocks, (2) gold bullion and other precious metals, (3) energy and natural resources, (4) foreign currencies and/or (5) bonds in 2010?
Question #2: How do you know how much of your money to invest in each area?
In the next few days, I’ll check back here frequently and give you my feedback. Then, next week, I’ll send you a follow-up email with my own thoughts on how to build the optimal portfolio for the year ahead.
Best wishes,
Larry
Related Posts
- The optimum growth portfolio for 2010 (02/03/10)
- Commodity windfalls ahead … or not? (02/02/10)
- Care to give me a hand? (01/20/10)
- Wall Street’s Achilles’ heel: How vulnerable are you? (01/25/10)
- Are U.S. stocks a “sucker bet” now? (01/26/10)
{ 129 comments… read them below or add one }
Currently I’m placing 25% in precious metals (all stocks), 10% energy related stocks–mostly dividend paying, 15% Food related commodity stocks, 15% foriegn (mostly asian) stock, 15% world stock (US Companies with significant International business),10% TIPS (Vanguard Mutual Fund) 5% IBonds and 5% cash. I’m not sure how I know how much to place in each area other than a “feel” for which areas provide me with the most defensive position while trying to gain some income and spread risk.
Larry Edelson Reply:
January 20th, 2010 at 9:20 am
Bob, your portfolio is nicely diversified, and even though it’s somewhat different from what I would be recommending right now, it underscores the key issue I’d like to focus on: HOW does one decide (a) which asset classes are likely to be the best performers and (b) how much to allocate to each asset class? I respect your frankness in saying that the primary basis is an intuitive feeling for a balance between income and risk. That’s certainly a worthy goal. What we need, obviously, is something a bit more substantive than a gut feeling — a dynamic model that has a solid factual basis and that can give us some concrete guidance on the likelihood of each major asset class to perform. This is an issue we have been dedicating a lot of time to, and why I raised the question in my blog post.
For starters, we have divvied up the investment world into five asset classes:
1. Gold and other precious metals
2. Energy and other natural resources
3. Stocks (domestic and foreign)
4. Currencies
5. Bonds and cash
This raised a few questions:
First, what do we mean by “gold”? Answer: Gold bullion. Not mining stocks.
Second, where do we put gold and natural resource stocks? There were some arguments for throwing them in with #1 and #2. But we decided to classify them as #3 — STOCKS.
So my main comment to you is that your portfolio may not be as well diversified as you think it is. You have 75% in stocks. If your goal is a truly broad diversification across various asset classes, you may want to consider moving some of your gold and natural resource stocks to gold and commodity ETFs that track the underlying commodities more directly.
Third, what about real estate? Yes, it IS missing from our five asset classes. Reason: There is no investment or index you can buy today that tracks real estate prices properly; and until there is, we will exclude real estate from this discussion.
— Best, Larry
Dear Larry, I don’t allocate percentages, although i “feel” percentages by what is going on. Since i started following you last June, I have made more money than at any time in my stockmarket years except 2000 in the dotcom boom. This means I’m invested about 20% in Emerging Market mutual funds, 15% in global commodities funds, 20% in oil and gas and gas ditribution companies, ETF’s and funds, 20% in gold stocks, ETF’s and mutual funds, 17.5% in bonds - PIMCo Short Term and Tips funds and some emerging market funds and 7.5% in cash. I don’t see any advantage in investing in foreing exchange whe you can play the dollar based commodities. I have owned UDN from time to times. I hope you continue to be right and timely in your suggestions. Fortunately I got out of all gold on the highest price day in December when you said it was a little pricey, but jumped back in at 1095.
I was a little confused by Tony’s predictions he sent out at the first of the year as they seemed somewhat at odds with yours, especially as it relates to the U.S stock market.
Thanks,
David May
P.S. I would still like your thinking on what will happen in the various markets if Iran lobs a few missiles into Saudi Arabia or blocks the Striats.
Larry Edelson Reply:
January 20th, 2010 at 9:21 am
Hi David,
Glad to hear you’re doing well with your investments, and thanks for the compliments. You’re certainly nicely diversified, along the lines recommended in my Real Wealth Report. So that’s great. One thing you might want to keep a very careful eye on though is your bond fund allocation, which stands at 17.5%. With all the money printing going on, not just in the U.S. but all over the world, bonds can indeed be very risky right now. The world is in a cycle where the public sector (governments and central banks) can and will do everything they can to try and prevent a meltdown, but will only end up creating a slew of unintended consequences: Namely, a bankrupt public sector. As a result, the government bond markets should be mostly avoided at this time.
As to Tony’s forecasts, we differ only in timing. Tony being a bit more bearish than me for the short-term, say, through March. As to Iran, the Middle East in general, I think the markets have largely discounted it. However, if bombing were to break out, it would certainly favor what the cycles are already saying – higher oil prices, and higher commodity prices in general.
— Best, Larry
Larry,
We are 57, retired and live on our savings/investments. So …
1.) Wealth preservation is Number 1 for us. We lost plenty in the crash, so we also are interested in growth. We decide how to split our holdings based on research, multiple newsletters and trusting our own take concerning geopolitical and economic outlooks. We do not like the US$. We fear inflation (not to mention tyranny). No domestic bonds for us, although we have some world bond funds. Few US companies, unless they are in natural resources or politically well-connected (like GE). Most of our holdings are in foreign equities and EFTs. We have some bullion, gold, silver and palladium in possession, however the largest chunk in this sector is in precious metals-related equities and ETFs. We don’t have large quantities of any one position, selling the losers and staying with the winners (taking profit along the way). We are only holding a few thousand in foreign currency, but buy foreign stocks in he local exchange/currency when appropriate (Canadian $ and Aussie $ mostly, just a touch of Euro-based holdings). Your recos carry a lot of weight with us!!
2.) Historically, we had a financial analyst manage our portfolio. Not good. We have taken that over and, after much reading and study, began by building a spreadsheet, wherein we allocated sectors by % of the total funds available. Then, we selected holdings within each quantified sector. We watch our portfolio every day and adjust our allocations to the various sectors based on what is making money, pulling the weeds and replanting in their place. If we need to add back to a given sector, we try to wait for a dip to buy the next candidate, so the overall beginning allocation ebbs and flows with the market.
Larry Edelson Reply:
January 20th, 2010 at 9:23 am
Dear Mr. and Mrs. Killebrew,
You certainly are putting a lot of quality time and work into your investments. Bravo! Personally, I’ve found – over my 32 years on Wall Street – that there is no one more qualified to watch and monitor one’s investments, than oneself. Even if one lacks the experience to do so. As long as you keep an open and impartial mind, as you and your wife are doing, one is far better off taking control of their own destiny, than leaving it in the hands of biased brokers who are mostly interested in what commissions they can generate for themselves in the next day, week, or month, as most.
One thing that concerns me a bit: How do you know what percentage of your portfolio to allocate to certain sectors? What criteria do you use?
— Best, Larry
I am 72 year old retired married man with a need and desire to preserve capital and grow it for inflation protection. I am far more informed about financial matters than the majority of Americans yet I do not have good systematic answers to your two questions. I read a lot of financial experts and thoughtfully consider what they are saying, do my research then apply my own values and life experience to the options being presented and then make my decisions. I have placed my 80% of my liquid assets in a 60% stocks and 35% bonds and 5% alternatives balanced fund. Of the stock portion about 20% is international and the other 80% is a mix of US stocks, none of them in natural resources such as gold, silver, copper or other commodities. My other liquid assets are about one fifth the amount of the unannuitized portion of my pension. These are the assets I am investing in gold funds and other natural resources with your counsel and that of the Weiss “Wealth Report” team as my guide. For Question 2, I make my best guess based again on what I have learned to date, what honors my primary concern for safety while also seeking to seeking to grow my assets and income with low risk. I would really welcome your recommendations on an optimal diversification model that reflects my values of safety and growth. Thank you.
Larry Edelson Reply:
January 20th, 2010 at 9:31 am
Dear James,
While I think your portfolio may carry to much broad stock market risk right now, I am thrilled to hear from someone who is actively monitoring their portfolio. It is truly amazing how so few investors actively watch their portfolios, and all too often, sleepwalk through their investments. I especially like your statement that safety is #1. That would always be the case. But interestingly enough, safety is a relative term. For instance, cash can sometimes be the riskiest of investments, depending upon the economic cycles at work, where they are, where they have come from, and where they are pointing.
That’s why I use cycle research extensively. After all, human behavior – fear and greed especially – have not changed in thousands of years. So when it comes to the markets, these mass psychological forces can be quantitatively measured, and used to help better time asset allocation. In simple terms, it helps one to avoid buying when everyone else is buying (near tops) … and selling when everyone else is selling (near bottoms). I would consider doing some research into economic cycles and how they relate to the markets.
– Best, Larry
I self-manage my IRA since I obviously have a vested interest in it’s performance. I decide the foreign/domestic mix by gut feel based on reading and listening to many sources of information and sorting-out what makes sense to me from lots of data and forecasts. I’m not an investment genious, so I invest in the assets I am most familiar until I can learn enough to venture out into other instruments. I am more comfortable investing in precious metals, commodities, energy, and natural resources via stocks and ETFs; tracking several times daily and rotating often to capture peaks and valleys as best as possible. I track, but do not trade in currencies. I simply consider trends as they relate to the commodity and other sectors. I have expanded into Bollinger Band and other tools in addition to my own system developed over the past 5 years, (still adjusting as it makes sense and I learn more). For each equity I track, I use spreadsheets to capture foriegn/domestic, GISC Sector, and Sub-Industry since I have not found a ready display of that data. I will vary % distribution in each area based in short-term (3 to 6 months) information and forecasts, and input from several indicators.
Larry Edelson Reply:
January 20th, 2010 at 9:32 am
Dear John,
Interestingly I know quite a few successful traders and investors who operate according to their “gut.” But in each and every case, their “guts” were developed over years of experience and hard knocks. In other words, I don’t think one is born with enough gut and experience to be successful. And as I’ve told my own children, to be a successful investor often involves paying more “tuition” (losses and mistakes) than to go to medical or law school! Having said that, you are also doing some nice technical analysis, which is critical. Fundamental analysis alone is not enough to make unbiased decisions. So I commend you for adding a layer of analysis on top of gut instincts. Keep up the good work!
– Best, Larry
Larry,
I am investing 15-20% in Gold (GLD DGP SLV); 15-20% Resource ETF’s and Mutual Funds (BDD, PCDRX, US Resource etc.); 25% in Foreign BRIC based country ETF’s (EWA, EWZ, China Mutual Funds, Templeton Emerging Markets ), 20% Short of 20+ Year Treasuries w/ TBT; the rest in Energy ETF DIG.
not sure but would like to know which gold stock penny or other to consider.I bought 100 shares of iag and udn on your advise.will buy to hold for long term other stocks
I am very satisfied with your advice, and at this time can think of anything to better the advice.
gold and silver bullion and gold futures
My basic asset allocatoin comes from reading your materials and them being more agressive. I have approximately:
45% in gold stocks like JAG, IAG, GOLD, AUY, GLD CDE,
25% in silver stocks like SLW and HL
15% in international index fund equally between CHL, YAO and VNM
10% in FCX (Copper and other mining).
5% in NOG (Energy)
Seperately, I also have about 5% in physical bullion in a home safe.
You have been very helpful and I am open to any suggestions to re-allocation. I am fully invested.
I have invested the bulk of my funds in dividend paying ,Canadian Oil and Gas Royalty Trusts.
As far as my portfolio percentages I am closely following your advice. I am uncertain sometimes on how to get into the portfolio since I began late; so some of the items are priced to high to enter at this time. I do follow your advice very slowly.
Generally, I am not bullish on the American stock markets at this time because of the low amount of cash available to invest from mutual funds; less than 4% at present. I am reading that historically whenever cash is low in mutual funds that bearish market conditions followed closely.
We are looking for the best risk profiles for these troubles times.
1. precious metals, gold, platinum, silver
2. Energy; oil,gas, alternative green systems
3. foreign bonds
4. TIPS
5. Currencies, Australian, Canadian, Chile
Any help or advice would be welcomed
I would like to convert $ to other currency holdings ….(which one….I do not know as yet).
Whether to invest in silver or gold? What is the best source of buying these?
Thinking of changing IRA funds to Buy individual stocks within an IRA account instead of leaving the IRA funds in the mutual funds .
Whhich is the best currency mix if holding funds other than $$$$$.
Larry - I get my advise by listening to you - Steven Lieb - and a couple of other “for Profit newsletters.
You have collectively convinced me that the dollar is destined to continue its fall and that gold will continue to rise. I have bought physical gold - I have invested in Exeter Resources (at $6.06 per share) at your recommendation - and have bought other gold mining stock.
What can you do for me! Continue to tell me what will happen on the diving dollar (though you have made the possible endings pretty clear - and make specific recommendations on stocks that are about to break upwardly.
I have now recovered almost all of my stock losses from the past 2 years and look forward to taking further advantage of nitch gainers.
Keep up the good work!
Jim
Larry,
Currently, I estimate that we are about 60% invested, 40% in “cash”. Of the 60% invested we have about 25% in gold&precious metals, 25% natural resources, less than 5% each in currency & bonds, the remainder widely diversified in the market, with about an equal split between domestic and foreign.
As a new member of Uncommon Wisdom Inner Circle we look forward to your specific recommendations regarding these allotment questions but prefer not to receive additional advertisements or offers for more/different services.
Thanks,
Gene
Larry, I am currently 10% GLD, 2% SLV and have the rest of my portolio in cash. I also recently aquired $20k in gold bullion. I track your RWR and the Dividends Superstar on Yahoo. I sold everything I had the last week of Dec 2009 in anticipation of Barrack’s double dip. I now track my buy points at 200d MA. I look for a buying opportunity to get the dividend stocks that porduce greater than 5%. I look forward to your optimum opinion.
In general I am investing most of my portfolio in precious metals, natural resources and mining. I am avoiding other domestic common stocks as I am concerned that a major market correction is looming. I don’t really know enough about foreign common stocks but do have a mutual fund which invests in emerging markets. I am avoiding China because: a) I smell a bubble in the making, and b) I foresee a correction relative to the dollar, and have no idea what that will bring about. And I’m avoiding bonds simply because I expect further dollar devaluation, inflation and a rise in interest rates. And I avoid foreign currencies as I don’t know enough. My favourite investments are GLD, GAMCO, UNWPX and GDX.
I wish I had a clear answer to yur second question. I don’t. I may well be overweighted in gold but at least it gives me a feeling of security and hope!!!!
We’ve lost confidence in the U.S. stock market and have moved some of our assets off shore into a variety of stable companies with a good track record and that pay good dividends. So far, results have been beyond our expectation. With the world moving to a global economy and a global currency, who knows if we’ve done the right thing.
I am very new at this game and hope that my mistakes will not be too painful.
Being Canadian I try to invest mostly in CAD with the thinking that the USD will lose value versus the CAD so my returns should be better in my currency.
We have put a large chunk into physical gold ingots with the idea that this will safeguard what we have , not necessarily make headway per se… est 40%
Other precious metals are an area where I am hoping to make inroads since I think that they have not taken off yet. Mostly I have what I call “tried and true” ETFs (example SLW, SLV, SSO ) but I am also trying some ventures in this area. est 15%
Energy and Nat res: I am following your lead on this one and have purchased what you have said unless it had already run away before I got to it. est 30%
Currency: Given the climate of the world economy I see China going up so I have CYB (Yuan fund) , I see Canada going up (CEF) and I see USD going down (UDN) est 10%
Bonds: don;t have them.
Ventures and speculation: 5%
Hi Larry,
This is the question I need answered most in my portfolio as I don’t really have a system and realize I need one. I am invested mostly in metals. I would really like a breakdown.
Thanks,
Karen
I’m thinking of investing 35% in gold mining company (CMIN) constitution mioning @ 69 cents a share and 35% in (CMZ) Compton petrolium @ 69 cents a share and the rest in (MEE) Massey Energy haven’t decided the price yet and if goes the other way I’ll invest 100% in (DAL) delta airlines @ $ 3.55 a share. Capital is somewhere between 60K to 89K.
What would you recommend if I may ask that question?.
Best Regards,
Manoug
at least 33% in gold bullion,40% in stocks,[gold, healthcare ,china, oil] the rest in money market funds and or commodities.
My portfolio allocations are monitored and periodically adjusted by integrating adisciplined overall diversified portfolio allocaiton framework with current views on the risk/reward profile of each specific asset class. Asset class portfolio allocations I’m targeting for the first half of 2010 are:
Domestic Equities: 30%
Foreign Equities: 30%
Precious Metals: 10%
Energy Natural Resources & Commodities: 10%
Foreign Currencies:10%
Bonds: 0%
Cash: 10%
Best Regards,
Brad
I am investing in metals and foreign securities in purchased on foreign exchanges through Euro Pacific.
I am about 8% physical gold, 20% cash, 40% gold and silver stocks, the balance in US Stocks–a little UNG.
No system.
I am a Canadian investor who values the advice put out by Weiss, but would like to see more focus on Canadian ETF’s and stocks as the will not expose me to the risk of the US$ and will also serve to provide US investors with currency diversification.
I tend to diversify based on macro trends. Such as a falling US$, commodities being in favour, and global growth hotspots (eg. BRIC).
With the falling US$ I believe commodity (specifically gold and silver) stocks will be very strong the next few years. I tend to be aggressive so will see a large portion of my porfolios (50%) in resource stocks, etfs and phyiscial metals. I am avoiding the US$ investments at all costs and will carry little cash when fully invested. I will tend to buy Cdn stocks to again avoid the US$.
The breakdown will be
Gold and Silver stocks 35%
Physical Metals 25%
Emerging Market ETF’s 20%
Royalty Trusts 10%
Cash 5%
Hi Larry,
Mostly I read as much as possible and try to follow your advice and learn as much as I can. I was a buy and hold investor in mutual funds and index funds and I feel very fortunate that I went to mostly all cash before the crash in 2008. Not sure why, but I’m glad I did. Then I discovered Uncommon Wisdom & Money and Markets, and I am getting back into the market in steps, mostly precious metals stocks and mutual funds, Asia stock ETFs, and energy-related ETFs. I’m not sure how to build my portfolio again, I’m new at investing in stocks. I’d like to invest more and have less in cash.
I have exposure to many of your recommendations in gold, energy and emerging markets but I am a little on the fence as to where the winds will blow in 2010. It seems like the Wesis group is still betting against the dollar and is very pro gold, oil and other commodities and there is certainly a lot of agreement with you out there. But the more the bandwagon builds in one direction the more scared I get that something is missed. There are some economists out there warning to be careful with gold. Can the dollar surprise us? It seems like the Euro is on the hot seat now! Aren’t there strategies out there the gov’t may take to minimize the deficit? This week they’re talking about taxing the banks.
Hi Larry, I have just started following you.(3-4 Months) I have but a fraction in Gold feeling that the big move will not come until the deflationary spiral is stopped and just befor inflation starts once again.
I am heavy in Tech and made a great return in CREE! INTC, CSCO, AMAT EMC just limp up slowly.
My big focus is on Hi Dividend payers for income and Cap Gain.
How do you ( as you suggest) know what sector is the one to be in befor tit is obvious to everyone else but also not so eary that your investment languishes waiting for it to come into favor?
All the best, Bill
I’m a new Canadian investor, trying to manage my retirement money and count on the advice of Weiss. I would like to see more info on EFTs. I invest in mutual funds that are predominently precious metals and gold based. I usually have over 1/2 of my portfolio in metals and gold, and 1/4 in cash and 1/4 in resources - all in mutual funds. I’ve never tried EFTs or stocks, but really would like more information as to what to do and when to do it. I think gold is the way to go, along with other resources.
I’m iffy on my choice of Bonds. Right now I have 25% in TPINX. I would like some input on the best place to be in the Franklin A Fund class. I have 25% in GG, CDE, HUDRF, and WLCDF. The other 25% is in GEX,DBR,WPRT,ERII,TSYS,and MO. I’m looking to get out of MO, WPRT, and TSYS after 4Q earnings. I will replace these holdings with BEXP, CLR, and HK when the time is right. The remainding 25% is in junior canadian miners-penny stocks. These are holdings, I have a strong position in physical gold, junk silver coins, and 2 years cash-small bills, but exclude these from portfolio holdings since they are in lines with basic necessary items. You’re among just a handful of publishers out there who have thier head on straight and care enough to help thier subscribers through what will be a difficult and trying time- Thank you and God bless!!
30% Precious metals
20% Agricultural
25% Natural Resources
20% Foreign Dividend
5% cash
Question #1: I have basically depended on the Video Conference about 2
months ago by Wealth Daily (?) that you were on, Uncommon Wisdom emails
and reports and discussions with other financial advisors. My present
portfolio is distributed as follows (by %)
Cash - 17
Oil Stocks & Royalty Trusts - 34
Gold Mining Stocks - 7
TIPS - 14
GNMA Bonds paying 9% - 8
Mutual Fund - Foreign Stks, Commodities & Foreign Real Estate - 13
Mutual Fund - Foreign Large & Small Cap Stocks - 7
I have not invested in physical gold and silver because some years ago when
I tried to resell my purchases I was only offered 60% of its then current value.
Question #2. By looking at my distribution above, you may find that I do not
know how much to invest in each area. I am to some extent just guessing.
Dear Larry Edelson,
I have been following you for years , first through Safe Money Report,
now also with Real Wealth Report, and through the Foundation Alliance
and Uncommon Wisdom.
I believe the wise directions for investment
are gold,
foreign investments, especially in China
and commodities.
But I am not sufficiently clear about the specific allocations,
be it amounts, or the percentages, of one’s assets.
This is particularly important to me because my income is almost entirely based
on my holdings and the dividends and interest I earn from them.
I believe you have the clearest picture and perspective of what is going on financially
in America, and globally.
.
I would deeply appreciate your unique and unmatched help
in this world of chicanery, greed, dishonesty, and ignorance.
Most sincerely and with all best wishes,
Robert Kestler
I believe that I will keep my 100 gold maple leafs……
…….also I will be long on Canadian oil and gas and real estate income trusts(collecting and reinvesting the dividends), gold and silver stocks, as well as having approx. 30% of my $ in Canadian corporate real estate bonds and energy bonds……Could you tell me how much CASH you suggest keeping on the sidelines…..in the event of a major pullback?…..I think we could see another terrorist attack in the next year…..which I believe would suck $ out of stocks….and strengthen the U.S. dollar. I am hesitant to be fully invested at this time….even though I could miss a continued rally. What Asia plays would protect my capital and give me upside over 2010?
Dear Larry,
I am a new subscriber to your Real Wealth report so I am ot fully caught up. But I like your views of the economy and how Washington is poisoning it. Before I subscribed to your RWR I have equal amounts in these ETFs; SLV, GDXJ, TBT, HAO, BRF, RIC , XRA. I have two mutual funds with USAA USAGX, USEMX. I believe as you do that emerging markets in brazil and asia as well as commodities such as gold silver, and TIPS are the way to go.
Shaun Hurtado
Hi Larry, I am only in mutual funds for diversity no individual stocks. 40% mining and metals, 30% energy and natural gas, 20% Intl. bonds and 10% emerging markets. I dont know the best allocation to use. Mike
Larry, I am 72 year old retired married man with a need and desire to preserve capital and grow it for inflation protection. I am far more informed about financial matters than the majority of Americans yet I do not have good systematic answers to your two questions. I read a lot of financial experts and thoughtfully consider what they are saying, do my research then apply my own values and life experience to the options being presented and then make my decisions. I have placed my 80% of my liquid assets in a 60% stocks and 35% bonds and 5% alternatives balanced fund. Of the stock portion about 20% is international and the other 80% is a mix of US stocks, none of them in natural resources such as gold, silver, copper or other commodities. My other liquid assets are about one fifth the amount of the unannuitized portion of my pension. These are the assets I am investing in gold funds and other natural resources with your counsel and that of the Weiss “Wealth Report” team as my guide. For Question 2, I make my best guess based again on what I have learned to date, what honors my primary concern for safety while also seeking to seeking to grow my assets and income with low risk. I would really welcome your recommendations on an optimal diversification model that reflects my values of safety and growth. Thank you. Jim J
Unfortunately a lot of my decisions are taken away from me by the restrictions on my 401K.
I can invest half of my 401K in ETFs but the other half must stay in mutual funds I’m not very fond of. At 57 I decided to take a senior withdrawal, even though that meant paying some taxes. I bought physical gold and silver with the money.
The other savings I have is about $275,000 in my pension plan that is not drawing interest and is quickly losing value. I am leaving my retirement home on a 30 year loan so I can pay it off with the devalued dollars I will recieve when I retire.
I would be very interested in your opinion on these 2 things.
How do you invest with a restrictive 401K.
How can you try to salvage some of a pension that is 5 or 10 years out.
Thanks for all of your advice.
hi i’m fully invested in the short side options and etf’s we may get a bounce and re-top late jan…dollar may retest low but i think its mid term trend is up, which in turn should put pressure on commodities, obviously dollar is headed for oblvian long term
Larry–
Not all of us have great amounts of investable cash, even though we are debt free.
As a retiree living on country acreage, growing as much of my own food as possible,
I feel fairly secure. I have invested heavily (for me) in metals (Ag & Au) and in energy
(domestic natural gas); the metals are a hedge against what I see to be inevitable,
and the gas has an in-place vertically integrated infrastructure and a consumer base
that insures demand for the forseeable future. I plan to invest some in domestic oil
soon, and possibly an Asain mutual. I’m getting my nest egg out of the dollar!!!
I consider Weiss as one of the best sources of news and analysis– no sugar coating
and no gloom & doom… just the cold hard facts! Keep up the good work.
…..Bobbaldy in Missouri
I am sadden that our country is being destroyed. I am preparing for the worse and right now I am waiting for the mkt to correct. I am very hesitant to be investing in anything. I believe the govt is intervening in the mkts. I am currently short the mkt (approx. 25%). This is the portfolio that I am waiting to invest in (currently in cash):
Gold & silver bullion & coins, gold & Silver EFs 20% (currently have)
Emerging market stocks 20%
Non US dollar currencies 20%
Real estate (looking to buy a small farm) 20%
Agric & Nat. Resource (Domestic/Foreign) 20%
For my 3 & 6 year old’s trust funds I want income and emerging mkts, both have 25% - 30% in gold mutual funds.
I am using the Weiss Elite and outstanding investment portfolios to attempt to achieve the above. I could use all the help that you guys can give. God Bless
all my nuts are on gold and silver mid cap stocks not even losing sleep exept dips but very confident on our dollar with the help of china goiog to the bottom of the barrell penny gold stocks have great charts with huge potential please advise or i may jump out the basement window
moderation is not my strong point !!!!! money is not everything justs helps alot to have some !
I am deciding my investing based on the advice & information I’ve been getting from various sources, especially in regard to the valuation of the dollar. My allocations are mostly in foreign stocks, some in physical bullion, and some in gold/silver stocks, including mining companies (and of course some regular cash for current requirements). For the future I am looking further into energy and natural resources.
I am sure various people are at different stages of their investing, some close to retirement, some just beginning.
What about a couple of scenarios outlining different risk tolerances; e.g aggressive and more speculative, more conservative for people close to or in retirement, and both mixed?
Thanks for your work! You have helped many of us claw back from the blow of Wall Street greed.
I wish I knew how to determine how much to put in each area. I don’t have a lot of available cash. I have land, precious metals, very little stock and some cash. Any suggestions on a good breakdown would be greatly appreciated.
15% gold and precious minerals. and ETF’s which short indexes
10% domestic stocks in oil, medical, chemicals, food and water
25% foreign stocks in oil, medical, chemicals, food and water
20% foreign and domestic utilities
30% cash, money markets, T-Bills
I’ll write to you from “Old Germany” who is a fully dependent state (no nation) from the USA. So Germany has one’s tail between its legs. Here, nothing is better, but people don’t seem to see this reality and think perhaps that the EU will arrange things. Ha, ha!!! Anyway to secure my last years I invested in metals (physical for ag and au), copper, oil and mines (stocks). The ultimate question for me is if the FED goes on plunging metals (ag and au). Shall we finally get a compressed gold price of let me say 1000 $ or will gold be “devalued officially”, will metal and mines stocks maintain their value, or will everything go down the drain; does we come miles nearer a situation where material things matter nil and survival will be the main theme! European blogsare full of this question and a lot of people offer survival kits. I am not kidding!
I admit the situation is very critical.
Martin
(excuse my language faults)
I tend to favor the precious metals over currencies and foreing stocks as I believe the US dollar will tank, but I am not sure that we are out of the woods from a recession standpoint. It still seems to me that as the US markets go, so goes the rest of the world markets from a directional standpoint. Even though I believe that in the long run the emerging markets are the way to go, I am still uncomfortable that they can profit in 2010 if the US sees a doulble dip recession.
Larry,
Currently invested as follows:
25% Energy
15% Gold, Silver
50% Foreigh
25% Tech
5% Food, Ag
Question #2. By looking at my distribution above, you may find that I do not
know how much to invest in each area. I am to some extent just guessing.
Ques 1 & 2 We are 50% in gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and because we believe they’ll rise significantly into 2012. Out of stocks completely. Currency plays when we consider them appropriate. The rest is in HK $ which unfortunately is tied to the US dollar.
Larry,
I’m 20% short in the Market in DOW and DAX ready for the next down move - options.
30% Trading at GPDUSD; USDEUR with short/long strategy (shortterm/minutes)- http://fx-cfd.de
10% in Metalls physical
30% Cash
10% in shortterm bonds
I TRY HEEDING YOUR ADVICE:
25% GOLD/SILVER
25% OIL
30% CHINA/ASIA
10% US
10% BOND FUND
NOT SURE HOW TO DEAL WITH CURRENCIES.
wyn harter
Am 20% percent in emerging market funds
20% in income bonds (US tax advantaged muny’s and state bonds) starting to add some MLP’s
15% in Gold
10% in Oil Funds with private managers
Remainder in Hedge Funds
I think Weiss tends quite strongly on the bearish side especially re: USA…USA is a great country and the quality US Multinationals have had very good earnings.
I am wondering now about China. Tony Sagami just gave out a hugely glowing report….including the
export news. But the reality is unless China adjusts the currency (unlikely) we are going to see trade wars. The europeans in particular are quite tired of their highly unfair artificial currency advantage. US is too but won’t have the guts to do anything about it.
Hi, I am currently invested in Gold bullion, metal not stocks, and utilities here in the UK.
I am planning to move into ETF’s in China, where I do a lot of business.
mainly shortterm insured cash equivalents — looking to trade some 20-30% in recommendations of Weiss Group
i would like higher dividend paying stocks (9%) with a high degree of safety.
I have been investing in China and a Canadian gold; NEP, CHNG, EGO, and Now SIAF.PK for Agriculture. Due to a massive milk disaster through the additive melamine for increasing protein #s in a lab rating that made 300,000 folks sick and killed 1/2 dozen infants. I am anticipating this stock to grow long.
Question; I dont like investing in banks but recognizing that the chinese household income is almost non existent, I understand 25 cents to a $1 an hour the only way it would seem that they can have cars and westernized items would be through loans. Credit Cards, Banks, etc., I have been researching for this info but havent hit pay dirt yet. Any Ideas to share.
TX
Larry,
As I approach retirement I predominantly invest in Australian blue chip equities with some CDF trading on the Australian SPI.
I have used the past 6 months to teach myself about ETF’s, although I have not done any trading in these derivatives, and about technical analysis and how to use it in my trading activities.
I have some apprehension about trading global markets because of a lack of understanding and an adequate level of confidence to make the transition into these markets.
I stay with the Australian market as I belive it has many opportunities for profit and is much simpler to navigate. I hope to expand my horizons following an extended training and education program.
Hi Larry,
I’m 64, single and retired. My total monthly living expenses are $1,600. I only receive s.s and a monthly draw of $300.00 from my money market account. I have $73,000 in my portfolio. My current allocation is 25% Emerging Markets (BRIC), 25% natural resorces and 25% precious metals and 25% in cash. I hold all these positions in mutual funds with Fidelity investments. Do you think this is a good diversification for my age and current market conditions?
Thank you,
Paul bedard
Larry;
I read various investment letters including Safe Money and Real Wealth
( for a three month trial period ) I am aiming for 10% in gold silver and other metals. I have gold and silver coins, GG, GLD and your three recommended mutal funds (very small starting positions in the funds). I have energy investments of about 7%. Just under 10% in forgein stocks, US stocks with a forgien flavor, and dollar contra stocks. I am 6.5% in various other US stocks and mutal funds. Iam still 67% cash; no bonds.
I am 70 years old and was not hurt in the tech crash nor in the 08 mess ( I did lose 2% in 08). I missed most of the rally in 09. All of this may sound like I know what I’m doing , but that is not entirely true, I do need all the help I can get with allocation and specific investments.
Pragmatically, following trends, and reading several newsletters.
My pension is entirely bond-based so that I do not consider anything but 3-month TSY bond funds in order to keep cash. Current allocation:
Cash 17.3%
gold bullion 17.2% (1)
silver bul. 3.34 (2)
prec.m. mines 12.2% (3) [total prec.m's. 32.74%]
energy rel’d 27.05% nat. res. 10.53% intl. 12.38%
What do you think of Tamco Oil. How do you invest in these which are on the BB?
First, thank you for this publication, “Uncommon Wisdom”. I look forward to it every day, especially Tony Sagami’s reports on the Asian markets. To partially answer your questions:
Because I feel that fundamentally, the U.S. is in for unprecedented inflation, I have about 70% of my portfolio in gold bullion. The other roughly 30% is in annuities and mostly U.S. stocks. I recently aquired an Indian stock (Tata), thanks to a heads up from Tony. I would very much like to own more Chinese stocks, but I have yet to learn where to go and how to invest in the Hong Kong or Chinese markets. Lastly, I am very interested in divesting myself out of the dollar. ….Cynthia in CA
I want to buy Thai stocks. I am a novice and don’t know who to contact to set up an account.
I am heavy to natural resources and the major regions are Canada, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong & China
Hi Larry,
I am a 67 year old retired Irish investor and a subscriber to several Weiss publications but particularly
your “Real Wealth Report”, “Resource Windfall Trader” and “Uncommon Wisdom”. I have every confidence in your “big picture” vision and your clear and concise, on the ground, recommendations.
I was more than 50% cash for most of 2009 but invested 90% in early January 2010 with the intention of getting out of the stock market by May.
I suppose the answer to both questions is that the decision about what percentage of “betting” money to invest is based on a conviction formed from many investment sources, including your own excellent material.
Present Allocation.
Precious Metals 25%
Energy 25%
Natural Resources 10%
China/India 10%
Asia 5%
Latin America 5%
Europe/USA 5%
Russia 3%
Options 2%
Cash 10%
Larry, I have an important question that I think all investors are concerned about. I hope you will
give us your views.
Many people feel that sometime in 2010 there will be another “stock market melt down” caused either by another financial crises, natural disaster or a political/military conflict. For that reason, among others, many of us are heavily weighted towards gold but in 2008 gold went down like everything else.
Assuming that such a “melt down” scenario is probable, would you retain gold, energy and natural resources or would we be best served to wait patiently in cash until “melt down” and then buy gold at knock down prices prior to take off to $2,000 and beyond.
Even without world conflicts there appears to be a concensus that the financial crises will re-visit us
by mid year and that the 2nd half of 2010 will be very volatile. Do you agree that we should exit the stock market before mid year?
I would very much appreciate your views on this because of its absolutely crucial nature for our financial wellbeing.
Slan agus beannacht De (Irish for goodbye and God bless)
I invest mostly in Asian stocks but I get discouraged when they go down every time the Dow goes down. The sure fire things seem to be Gold & Silver ETF’s and mining stocks so I tend to lean heaviest in that direction. When they go down it’s a pretty sure bet that they will come back. I like natural resourses but i prefer to own the ETF’s and not the stocks unless it’s a special situation. I wouldn’t touch bonds with a ten foot pole but I like the prospects for TBT in the future. In currencies I like a fund like MERKX that holds a basket of currencies against the dollar. I would appreciate some direction in options in the future.
MY INVESTMENTS ARE SMALLAND IN GOLD COMPANY AND ONE OIL COMPANY THAT IS THE OILSAND BUSINESS
Hi Larry–Presently, about 85% of my funds is in GLD, SLV. Yeah, I know that’s a lot, but it’s better than the bank. Aloha–Rick
Gold , Silver , platinum , oil and other commodities are best bets for next two years.
Stay away from all bonds and US stocks and housing and financials.
Larry:
My husband and I are retired and together we manage our rollover IRA using various services: Weiss Elite, Weiss MCP, Richard C. Young, Lee Bellinger to name a few. My husband’s background is Finance and I am a research librarian with daily internet access to all the major business publications.
Our #1 investment goal is to preserve corpus and so far we have been able to accomplish this through monthly interest and dividends and market value increases. Our decisions to hold certain portfolio assets are made utilizing all the information from the sources mentioned above plus our general “feel” of the marketplace. We protect each position with stop losses and review these levels daily adjusting upward as market conditions allow.
We are particularily interested in your perspective and advice on gold as this holding (SGOL and GGN) represents a significant percentage of our current portfolio.
Thank you for the opportunity to respond to your two questions and keep up the good work.
Sincerely,
Marilyn and Ron Summers
I am 80% invested in an emerging gold producer GDO Gold One trading in Austrailia and South Africa, a thin market in ADR’S here in the states . The mine started in the 4th Qtr this year. Has 17,000,000 oz. in reserves And will produce 140,000 oz. this yesr at a cost of 350.00 U.S. The reserves are shallow and the mine is in South Africa.I have ADR’S and got in at .90$ now trading at 3.00dollars . I am expecting 6.00 dollars or more this year. I also own OKOFF which is in silver and has an agreement with Pan American. My other investments are in private companies one which recovers gold for large sand and gravel companies in northern Calif. They are not using sand and gravel at the present time in Calif. I’m using your advice and your Cycle service to keep me informed
I AM DEVERSIFIED NO REAL METHOD, MAYBE I NEED HELP, 10% IN GOLD
I OWN ALL FORIEN STOCKS AND FUNDS
I use Uncommom Wisdom for much of my research but I do read financial sites and papers as well. Larry, Tony and Sean do make my week interesting, though.
At the end of 2009 I had:
20% US Equity
2% Short Term Bonds
9% Global Equity
16% Resources
21% Canadian Equity
5% Equity
20% Precious metals (with Gold)
6% China
In 2010 I am shooting for the following mix
15% China & Latin America
15% Precious metals
15% Energy
15% Resources
10% Canadian Equity
15% US Equity
5% Real Return Bonds (TIPS)
10% Global Equity
I ‘M SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THE DOLLAR IS IN TROUBLE. AS A CHRISTIAN I KNOW THE NEW WORLD ORDER IS FAST FAST APPROACHING!!!!!!!!!INVESTING I AM IGNORANT. I AM RETIRED BUT WORKING SOME. MY LITTLE NEST EGG IS IRA ANNUITY LSW. WHAT WOULD YOU ADVISE???
Generally speaking before determining where to put my money I look at what is going on in Washington and after seeing what has gone on for the past year I tend to bet quite heavily on precious metals and a most likely increase in interest rates. My biggest bet is buying the TBT ETF and the second biggest involves gold stocks and precious metals mutal funds. I also invest in Asian ETF’s as a hedge against the dollar.
I am in need of some help in this regard. I am currently 40% in cash like so many people waiting for the inevitable downturn. Of my invested assets I am focused primarily on natural resources, especially gold, and emerging markets. I will be buying more gold stocks on the dips. My 2 small “maybe I’ll get lucky” stocks are AEGG and GBRC. I do not really believe bonds are essential or a particularly good investment in 2010.
I just subscribed to uncommom wisdom, I have a 401k that I with around $7000.00 in it. It is called a thrift savings plan (tsp). which allows me to pick certain areas toshift my money for the best gain, or loss. Bonds, DJIA, S&P, forign markets,ect. I do not have the option to pick the certain stocks that you have recomended. I really like your insight and wisdom that comes from uncommon wisdom, The reason I am writing is that I am very green when it comes to the market, Where to go to do trading, on line or to a local broker. Insight is most important to me. I look forward to the future, in the trading world with you guys insight. thanks for letting me ask a simple question.
About 20% in gold (mining stock); just investing my retirement (strictly an amatuer). Avoiding options, bonds as I dont know how to deal with them.
Maybe 50% in high income stocks;
Maybe 25% in foreign stocks following your advise.
Age 60 allocation : 60% stocks - 40% bonds.
Precious Metals & Mining - 25%
Energy - 15%
Basic Stock Portfolio : USA 40% - Foreign 60%.
Large cap blend USA - 5%
Mid cap blend USA - 8%
Small cap blend USA - 6%
Large cap European - 2%
Large cap Pacific - 2%
Emerging Markets - 25%
Mid cap / Small cap - Most Foreign Countries - 12%
Bonds - High Yield
I take a good look at the world growth and allocate my portfolio based on my analysis. The above is for my mutual fund portfolio. I rebalance my portfolio whenever I feel the need to, based on world events.
I am 77 with living expences from SS. I have a $100k annuity that I can;t touch with out a penalty for 3 years, $18k in Realty Income, about $5k in other stock. I would like to invest these so that in a couple of years I would have enough $ to enjoy what time I have here on this good earth that GOD has given us. ($9k cash-no bills other then utilities) Do I have a chance? Thank you.
I am 55% in precious metals (physical and mining stocks; bought these many years ago), 5% in Canadian energy companies (waiting for a pull back before buying more) and the remainder in Canadian dollars (I live in Canada). I will likely be buying some Chinese and Brazilian stocks and ETFs over the next few weeks (again, hoping for a pull back).
First of all, I view investing for 2010 as part of an ever developing plan, not an isolated portfolio. I have been investing both passively and actively for over fifty years and seen many economic changes over that period. I escaped most damage by withdrawing before the tech bubble burst but I did not expect the 2008-09 downturn to be as deep nor as long as it was and have not yet recovered completely from that. My first concern is kepping a portion of my funds not subject to the same downward forces as the rest so that in the event I am terribly wrong, I have enough to rebuild again.
Currently the stock portion of my portfolio is about 95% foreign including 25% precious metals, and mostly Asian (China, South Korea, India) but I have been lightening load on gold and building up my Latin America holdings, mostly Brazil, but also Chile, Argentina and Peru..Have only a few foreign banks but am watching about 25 out of the corner of my eye. Unless there is an international financial panic in 2010, which I feel is a distinct possibility, I think Latin America stocks are going to be the big pleasant surprise of the year, surpassing the percentage increase in gold although for the long run I see gold with an ever increasing luster.
I have sold all my holding in Russia, Venezuela and Bolivia .
I am slowly getting back into agriculture, looking for areas which are likely to bloom in emerging markets like tortillas.
Keep up your good work. You’re one of the few newletter writers worth listening to. Thanks.
Please use only my first name Larry.
Question #1: How are YOU deciding whether you’ll invest in (1) domestic and foreign stocks, (2) gold bullion and other precious metals, (3) energy and natural resources, (4) foreign currencies and/or (5) bonds in 2010?
Answer: Am betting on a second “stimulus”, however this time one that will put money into circulation, a good bit of it into “green” expenditures. As a result, I am betting on global consumption, inflation, and higher interest rates, playing these with physical palladium, OIL, XES, TBT, AMSC, and selected MS65 Saints.
Question #2: How do you know how much of your money to invest in each area?
Answwer: I don’t really. I invest more in commodities, because supply/demand and cycles favor them right now.
Foreign–60%;Domestic–40%;Gold/Silver–20% ;Currency–5%;Energy & Natural–20%
Looking forward to your advice
Larry,
90% of all my investment portfolio is following WR inc advisories. MDP, Resource Windfall Trader, Uncommon Wisdom. I also look to $treet Athority, Mark Skousen advisories. I have a portfolio in Canada mostly Jr Mining stocks, the latter is the field that I work in. Most of my desicions to place a stock in my portfolio comes from your and other advisories as my day is long and work off shore finding it hard to do the research myself. These advisories have taken me to sectors I never would have ventured on my own. Foriegn markets: China; India; S Korea, Brazil all common denominators. Still holding a diversified US stock portfolio. I would say these advisories have been successful for me as I have booked $74K and $48K respectivly in past two years, where I was in the $20s and $30s on my own. Keep up the good work and keep me in the safe zone. You are a trusted source of information and guidance in these troubled times.
Jim
Hi Larry,
I have a substantial amout of money invested in mutual funds. Within these mutual funds I have 20% in foreign and 80% in domestic stock. After subscribing to Real WealthnI have moved 25% of myportfolio to reflect your Real Wealth portfolio at a glance. With your recommendation I have purchased $12,000 in gold coins. My main concern is I have been reading that corporate CEO’s have been pulling their investments from the stock market and their are perdictions that the stock market is about to correct again. What are your thoughts of a correction?
Regards,
Ken Singer
I’ve tried to come up with an elegant way to phrase it, but the simple truth is I don’t know how to decide which asset classes I should invest in in 2010. My retirement account saw some growth last year, but like everyone else, I took a beathing in 2008 (I also took one when the .com era went bust).
I know I don’t want to repeat my past mistakes, so I’m looking to uncommon wisdom to help me make more insightful, profitable choices.
Looking forward to reading/viewing your reply to user feedback.
Thanks,
ML
APPRECIATE YOUR REPORTS, DOING WELL FROM THEM.
THANKS, TONY BATTAGLIA
I’m interested in building a proper portfolio.
thanks
10% foreign stocks
30
15% foreign stocks
25% energy stocks
60% gold stocks
china and india; and eventually something in between; all with care, of course. dlh
THE $35,000 I INVESTED IN GOLD WAS DIVERTED TO SMR (SMALL MOBILE RADIO’S) I DID NOT GET ANY RETURN. THE TWO GENTLEMAN WHO HAD SERVED ME AT 1-800-949-GOLD WERE BOTH FIRED. PLEASE TELL INVESTERS NOT TO MAKE “PHONE FRIENDS’ WHEN DEALING WITH AGENTS OVER THE PHONE. IT WAS TAPPED. NOW I AM ON MEDICARE/MEDICAID. I WIILL NEVER SEE MY INVESTMENT(S). THANK YOU. LINDA L. ANNIS
I am sorry but I cannot understand most of the info. I receive from you. I think it is your audio system . I have a hard time understanding Tony Sagami but it may be only me. I wish you could put all this in print I hate to miss it.
Thank you,
Val Mix
I am aiming at 20-25% gold and 50 -75% global.
Larry,
Question # 1. My only choice to listen to the advice of experienced analysts with long years of proven results. Then start investing slowly until you get personal evidence of investment advice.
Question # 2. The key element for me is to determine, really determine what percentage of my investible funds I will put at risk. That is, how much can I afford to loose. Invest only that predetermined amount of money. As a secondary safe guard if market worries become burdensome sell out and take your losses.
I would think 10% in gold, 30% energy and 60% foreign. But I am looking to Uncommon Wisdom for reliable advice.
20% Gold, 20% commodity stocks (food)- tea, sugar etc. (India), 20% metals, 20% index futures n options (NIFTY), 20% forex.
42% Cash, 32% gold bullion, US socks and ETFs 16%, Chinese stocks and emerging markets 8%, and only 2% in other commodities, and I was considering your Resource Windfall Trader for some of my cash.
I think I have a fairly diversified portfolio right now - some long time core stocks - G.E. and Walmart.
Think it’s probably time to sell most of G. E. as they haven’t done much lately. I own Apple, RIMM,
and Intel. Also have some energy stocks -CHK, ETP, FAN, TS,. Have a gold and silver - IAG, and
SLV and a speculative gold mine stock VENGF. Others are DBC, DHR, HCN, MON, SE, ZMH, SE, and PCU - a total of 20 stocks in my current portfolio.
Must admit I have never figured out the percentages each stock has in relation to the total.
40% foreign; 15% precious metals; 20% short term treasuries; 25% cash……I see all the great percentage gains everyone is posting for this past year…..during this terrific rally….however, I believe this rally will soon be over…..to be followed by an even worse downturn…..can you please comment on how you see some of these natural resources stocks will respond? I realize that China is sucking up most resources right now and we all assume their market will continue to rise, but I do have fears of how the Dow will affect them also. I would like to purchase your options alert service but feel kind of paralized right now because of the above…..any comments on your video reports would be greatly appreciated.
Hi Larry, great article as always. I’ve been following your advice and it really
helped me a lot.
Thank you for everything.
hiro
I know that you recommend UDN as a hedge against a falling dollar, and some recommend RYURX as a hedge against a falling S &P, but in a way, dosen’t Gold do the same thing?
1. Have never purchased foreign stocks — Presently own Viacom (3.5%), CBS (3.5%).
2. Presently own SPDR Gold (1.3%) and Tocqueville Gold Fund (1.3%).
3. Presently own Energen Corp. stock (50.6%)
4. Foreign Currencies — none
5. Currently own a 20 yr. municipal bond (7.5%) and Pemco Total Return fund (28.7%).
This is my dad’s account which I now manage for him. What should be done with the municipal bonds and the Pemco bond fund? Some income may be needed to help pay for dad’s future health care needs. Thanks for your advice. I enjoy your Real Wealth Report. — Jack
Hi Larry
Am 61, retired and live in England. Try to broadly follow your advice in a general way from here as much as poss, whilst keeping money in pounds except gold investments.
Stocks - gold (less than 25%), mining and natural resources, oil, energy, utilities, Pacific Assets Trust, J.P.Morgan India, Atlantis China Fund, Utilico Emerging Markets, S & P Global Water, and a Pharma stock. Also Treasury index linked gilts and a good amount of cash. Admit to not paying attention to per centages of categories and look forward to your advice.
Many thanks for all your reports and much appreciated advice.
What are the prospects of these stocks: XLE, XLB, SLX and KGC, IAG and GG? When should I get off?
Hi Larry,
I know, you don’t see the SPDR Gold Trust as being a risky investment. But I just came across the following argumentation and I have to admit, it makes me worry quite a bit:
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/02/risks-in-owning-gld.html
Based on your recommendations, I’m into GLD. That’s why I’m very sensitive to these concerns. I understand that nobody can give any guarantees. Nevertheless, can you please comment on the many concerns listed on that linked page. Even if only some of the statements are true, isn’t the risk higher than commonly believed?
Thanks for an honest analysis and answer.
Henning
Recently, I;ve become a gold bull, and have become overextended in gold miners…Until then I’ve tried to be evenly weighted in sectors, thru etfs…I might be wrong, but the current market is giving me a chance to buy moe gold and international etfs….
I was traveling without a netbook when this question was first posted. After reading some of the responses, I think I should try to say something different.
Allow me to approach the 2nd question first.
It depends on the size of one´s portfolio, and the individual´s comfort level. I don´t want to be a jittery/ nervous investor; I don´t want to be a day-trader either. So, I divide the economic world into roughly 3 parts. 1) N America; 2) Europe; 3) Asia-Pacific. My reason is that they each have their own cycles. Theoretically, each commands 30% asset; with balance of 10% going for the ¨hot¨ riskier stuff or currencies. In practice, there are more N. American stocks then the rest, merely because these are better known/ read/ studied. The non American assets are mainly in the form of various funds. However, to balance this tendency, I pick ¨multi-nationals¨ (Yum, Pepsi, etc) as far as possible to get more foreign content.
Then, I have to pick some income generating stocks or bonds, as I must pay our piper (taxes) besides daily necessities.
I consider gold and silver as commodity, not as alternative currency. They are subjected to industrial demand like iron and copper. Agricultural products are tempting but nevertheless subjected to the whims of weather, so I take traders instead. Probably a smaller return, but I can sleep better.
Energy stocks were bought for their dividend income, not capital gain. I would only add to portfolio on price dip.
I don’t make a decision. I just take a flying leap at thedecision or problem and go. Actually I have never yet consciously made any sort of attempt to make a rational asset allocation schedule. Each leap has been in isolation and not a considered decision to some grand design.
Stephen F. Squires, Sr., are you a Virginia Tech/VPI graduate?
Hi Larry,
What is your take on South Africa? The economy seems to be strong, lots of new power stations being built and the World Cup Soccer is coming up in June. After many years in the USA I’m considering relocating back to South Africa with my family - trying to beat the USA recession. My children also have a small $ inheritence and with the way the dollar is declining how should we invest - gold? other? Chinese stocks ? Diane.
Larry: I am 70, and I have seen the ups and downs of the markets for all those years. From my observations, it is clear that there will continue to be ups and downs. My success has been patience. I buy the markets at 7500 or lower, and sell at 10500 (dow). For long term investing, that consistantly has provided me with a 25% growth in my assets. That is backed by historical records too.
peeb
Larry;
I have been reading your comments for a year or so. I have a portfolio I have made. Maybe not the best as I have lost money. Sometimes I gain some but seem to purchase at the wrong time.
I seem to buy what seems right at the time with the economy at the time of purchase.
I have changed my portfolio as of Jan 1. I have 3/4 in conservative stocks, 1/4 in dividend stocks,
1/6 in gold, some in silver but not much.
Thank you for helping us as this is not my profession.
I do enjoy everyone commenting on your blog.
The Roosevelt Gold Confiscation Order Of April 3 1933.
Franklin D Roosevelt, under Presidential Executive Order number 6102, confiscated nearly all privately held gold in the United States on April 5, 1933. A large fine and imprisonment incentivized cooperation. However, “rare” gold coins were exempt (likewise jewelry). If history repeats, a devaluation of the dollar could just as easily cause a similar executive order. I’m not sure if there is any measurable or empirical definition of “rare” but I am thinking that bullion is too risky. Maybe it would be wise to replace whatever gold bullion one might have (or some of it) with “rare” gold coins. Maybe “investment grade” rare coins or possibly some in a lower grade with some wear. Also, 24K gold jewelry is much more portable than rare coins. Perhaps owning just gold bullion (including common gold coins) and ETFs are not as safe as one might think. However, shares in gold producing companies (I believe) were safe in 1933. If so, I bet the price of such shares soared. Just some thoughts about diversifying when it comes to gold in one’s portfolio
Question #1: How are YOU deciding whether you’ll invest in (1) domestic and foreign stocks, (2) gold bullion and other precious metals, (3) energy and natural resources, (4) foreign currencies and/or (5) bonds in 2010?
Answer to Question
#1: I will not invest much in the stock markets as there values are fluctuating quite a lot.
#2: I will make a good investment in gold bullion and other precious metals because the value of gold bullion and other pecious in dollars is rising steadily.
# 3: I will make a pretty good investment in energy and natural resources becuase the value of petroleum is rising quite appreciably in dollars and the value of coal and steel and copper is rising in dollars.
# 4:I can’t make much investment in foreign currencies because cannot find many dealers doing foreign currency business in a big way and foreign currencies are not readily available.
# 5:Not much investment in bonds in 2010, there market is not very secure.
Question #2: How do you know how much of your money to invest in each area?
Answer to Question 2
I would invest in:-
1) Domestic and foreign stocks: 10%
2) gold bullion and other percious metals: 30% - 35%
3) energy and natural resources: 25%
4) Foreign currencies: 15%
5) Bonds in 2010: 10%
20% cash or short term bonds, 10% commodities, 5% currencies, 20% high yield, emerging market, and preferred, 20% international stock, 25% domestic stock
Hi Larry, as you know, there are many different levels of investors. There are people with large portfolios that can diversify and spread their wealth around. What I am interested in as a beginner is where to start. If you are just starting to invest with minimal funds, what is the best way to get started? Is it best to start with one or two different stocks or is it better to buy less of each and spread it around more varied stocks? Look forward to your response. Thanks Andrew
ohysical gold and gold related assests
Hi Larry,
IMO, the optimal portfolio is global; no matter what your home country is. I lean toward being the market vs trying to beat the market; favouring index funds and ETF’s.
My allocations are: Real Estate - 5%, Precious Metals - 5%, Bonds - 30%, Stocks - 60%.
My bonds are all Canadian with 1/3 indexed to inflation.
My stocks are Emerging Markets - 20%, Canada - 20%, USA - 10%, Europe and Pacific Rim - 10%.
My real estate is North American and my precious metals are global.
Have no interest in being a trader; prefer to rebalance my portfolio annually and get on with living life.
Domestic stocks seem safer to me but foreign stocks do as good if you do the research. I would put 15% in each.
25% in bullion, gold and silver would seem the safe investment as long as you can hide the physical bullion in a safe place.
30% in energy and natural resources
Foreign currencies are too volatile for me.
Bonds are getting scary so probably 15%
Looking for safe, low risk investments for long term as retirement fund for up to $200,000.
Dear Larry,
I follow my own asset allocation modell and rebalance twice a year. Mostly I use Etfs.
My portfolio has the following asset allocation:
25% China stocks, 10% top 100 ww dividend stocks, 5% trading with US stocks; 5% gold, 20% etf on commodities index, 20% on high grade company bonds, 10% high yield bonds, 10% ww inflation protected bonds
I plan to reduce the China portion and find a more balanced diversification of stocks.
I’m looking forward to read your comments.
I’m amazed that no one has a short position; even a small one. It’s easy to do with the ultra short shares now. Remember in 2008 nearly everything went down together. I see it as insurance.