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Dear Reader,
Our topic all week long has been: How do YOU build the optimum growth portfolio for 2010? And so far, we’ve covered THREE major areas: (1) U.S. stocks, (2) foreign stocks and (3) income investments.
That’s why, yesterday, we asked …
Do FIXED-INCOME INVESTMENTS have a place in your portfolio? For income, safety or a proxy for cash?
And if so, what kinds do you own? U.S. Treasuries? Corporate bonds? Municipals? Short-, medium- or long-term maturities?
What other kinds of income investments do you like?
Your responses are, as before, either intriguing or exciting …
Carole seems to be a dyed-in-the-wool Treasury investor: “I am currently holding U.S. Treasuries (Mutual Fund) long, medium and short term equally. I plan to move away from the long term and emphasize shorter term on these.”
Norman W. is totally OUT of U.S. Treasury bonds: “The FED will have to raise rates,” he says. “However, even before that I believe foreign demand for our bonds will dry up.
“International bonds are an option. The U.S. dollar should resume its slide in the second quarter of this year, thus inflating yields on international bonds.”
Plus, with interest rates so low, I was not surprised to see that many investors have moved from U.S. Treasuries to higher yielding (and higher risk) investments …
Jimmy B. swears by annuities: “Much of my funds are in Fixed Indexed Annuities that have no downside other than inflation’s effect but if the index goes up the return can be reasonably good.”
Tom D. writes “I prefer quality dividend-paying stocks that pay decent and consistent yields. I prefer stocks that are for “basic needs” like energy, utilities and consumer staples. If the stock prices decline, the yields increase.”
Coleman G. comments “I found WisdomTree International Dividends Ex-Financials (DOO). It seems to have exactly what the income seeking investor wants: The highest dividend-paying stocks from around the world, including the U.S., except for financials (which means these companies must make a PROFIT and then give some of that profit via DIVIDENDS to shareholders).”
Warren W. reports that he owns “… High-yield corporate bond funds, funds that own convertible securities, foreign and emerging market bond funds … and a Senior Debt Fund.”
Overall, if I’d have to rank our readers response, it looks like a third to one-half are income investors and that 80% or more count on vehicles other than U.S. treasuries for their income portfolios.
So, in terms of building a great portfolio for 2010, our readers seem to be giving Treasury bonds a pretty low rating, probably a one or a two on a scale of one to ten.
Now, it’s time for today’s question:
Is this the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals … or not? Why?
How much of your portfolio have you invested? Do you plan to buy more in the months ahead?
Which are your favorites? Gold? Silver? Platinum? Palladium?
Your answers will go a long way towards helping me help YOU build a more profitable portfolio for 2010.
Just click here and leave a comment to share your thoughts. I’ll add my own thoughts over the weekend or on Monday.
Best wishes,
Larry
Related Posts
- Dollar sinking; gold soaring! (09/23/09)
- How would YOU build the optimal portfolio? (01/12/10)
- My big question for today: What do you do for income? (01/28/10)
- The optimum growth portfolio for 2010 (02/03/10)
- 2010: Big Currency Profits Ahead? (02/01/10)



{ 570 comments… read them below or add one }
I purchased gold and silver in the early 2000’s as it was evident that a huge bubble was building and we were long over due for a Major Market collapse. This helped in positioning me for a 150% profit. I have both physical and ETF’s equaling about 15% of my net worth. Would I buy more ? You bet. Gold and Silver have a long ways to go and this current correction is a good time to do just that.
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:32 am
Dear Andrea,
I, like you, favor a nice allocation to precious metals. However, I also like lots of diversification, especially in times like we have today, where the sings in all markets are likely to increase dramatically! — Larry
Unless everything I’m learning from you guys about the money printing in the US is wrong, I don’t see how precious metals can go anywhere but up, overall. Looking at the table in Sean Broderick’s Uncommon Wisdom issue of 29 january 2010, The US, germany, Italy and France all look like they have 65 percent or so of their reserves in gold. If the gold price goes up by about 50 percent, won’t that mean that they’ll have about 100% of their reserves backed by gold? maybe that’s a naive question - I’m still learning - and a stretch target, but would the big boys in those governments not love it for that to happen? To me, that says it might well be good to but gold, as soon as you say…
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:33 am
Dear Mike,
Great question: One would naturally assume that if the price of gold appreciates, then the percent of a nation’s reserves in gold would also go up. However, keep in mind the supply of money is constantly growing, not just in the U.S. but in almost every country on the planet. So, for the percent of gold reserves to increase – without any additional buying – the price of gold would have to appreciate more than the amount of money that is constantly being created.
Having said that, I do agree with you that central banks are going to become net buyers of gold. They actually want the price higher now. It would be a sign to them that their reflation efforts are succeeding. Provided gold does not become a bubble in their eyes.
I have been following larry and the rest of the ‘Wise Guys’ (not a spelling mistake) for years now and it helped me get out of the market just before the latest crash. I have also been buying gold bullion and gold and mining stocks (and sometimes selling on a pullback) since the $350.00 level. Also recently bought silver ETF. And the reasons larry Edelson and Sean Broferick are so bullish long term on gold and other metals and commodities make a lot of sense to me. In addition, as many other investors, I have lost faith in Government and especially Wall street and the so called experts and financial advisors, as it seems too many are either incompetent or only after making money for themselves or both.
I have 20% in bullion, 40%cash, 20% ETF’s and 20% mining stocks, and various options on recco’s that make sense to me.
I like to buy more on pullbacks but are hesitant as there are so many naysayers, creating some doubt about the right moves and I do’nt want to put too many eggs in the same basket.
I suppose I will keep studying and learning and reading and act as things change.
Favorites? Have to be Gold, silver but mostly all the REAL stuff, the things we all need, food, water, energy, security.
Certainly longer term i have done well following the ‘weiss advise’, although the Options appear to take up a lot of time and although they can pay off big time, the losers or expiries make me feel it is not worth it in the end.
It does get exciting though when it moves your way!
Cheers, T.B
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:33 am
Hi TB,
Thanks for the kudos, and keep up the great work! One concern I have thought is that you say you have 20% in bullion and 20% in mining stocks. That’s 40% of your portfolio, quite a large amount in one asset class. Personally, I would have no more than 20 or 25% in any one asset class. — Larry
It is definitely time to load up on silver. Silver is not just a precious metal, but it has many many uses as an industrial metal as well. As Ted Butler has continually said…..there is no commodity that has been shorted as much as silver has been which eventually will lead to a tremendous up side. The ratio of the cost of gold to silver is currently 65:1 which is way off the historical ratio of 16:1……so silver continues to be cheap! Not only that, but silver has been and continues to be REAL money that holds its’ value.
I am bullish on silver more than any other commodity!
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:35 am
Dear Stan,
I am bullish on silver long-term, but silver is no longer a monetary metal, and is instead heavily dependent upon industry, which as we know, is in hard times and likely to remain sluggish for years to come. — Larry
My main metals investment has been SLV and SVM. Bought SLV from about 12 to 14, then got out about 17.20. Watched it run to to 19, so got in again about 17.10, then watched it run up to about 18.5–and I’m still holding. Purchased SVM from about 3 to 4.27 and got out at an average of 4.70, then watched as it went to 8! Started buying back in the last few days at an average of 5.55. Looks like I’m way to early in buying back.
It looks to me like the metals are following the dollar index quite closely–in reverse. From a purely technical basis it looks to me like the dollar index is headed for 82+ in the next few weeks. There maybe a quick move down to about 78.5 next week, then continue on up.
If SVM can rally to about 6 next week then go down again, I’d look for support just below today’s low at about 5.13, but if 4.90 is broken the next level is in the 4.40 to 4.50 area. Similarly, if SLV can go to 17+ next week then go down again, I’d expect it will go down to about 14.50.
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:35 am
Dear Al,
I LOVE your emphasis on technical analysis! — Larry
When I first began to buy physical metal 16 years ago, a grizzled and wise old commodities trader asked me a question I have never forgotton: “Why would anyone buy gold when the silver/gold ratio is 80-1″? I buy silver to trade for gold later, thereby increasing my purchasing power for gold! I will buy silver until the ratio is down to about 55-1. When it hits 48-1, I will trade physical silver for physical gold. I have already been able to do this once since 1995 (even with the premiums, you can make a nice profit). I am lucky to live in a big city and have been able to gain the trust of three different metals dealers in the area. Of course, the ratio now is about 65-1, so I’m currently buying silver for the exact reasons Larry has talked about. After reading Martin’s book a year ago, I cashed out all my money markets into the only five A-rated banks in this area. I’m now about 21% farmland, 20% cash and 59% gold/silver, paper assets 0%. If you have any money for investing, I recommend SILVER because it’s now 65-1. I love this dip/opportunity, and I’ll be continuing to buy all the way down!
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:36 am
Dear Doak,
I like the idea that you’re looking at the relationship between the two, although I do not trade them that way. What concerns me though is that you have 59% of your portfolio in one asset class. I try to keep no more than 20 to 25% in any one asset class, to make sure I don’t have too many eggs in one basket. — Larry
I am gold positive, and have been so since 1999. However, George Soros believes gold is in a bubble, but Jim Sinclair says that the dollar is doomed, and gold will emerge as the ultimate winner. Soros is a shrewed dude, and has made numerous correct calls in the past, but I think I’ll go with Sinclair on this one. The dollar doesn’t logically seem to be a safe haven this time. Too much Fed money printing….and as long as the velocity of money expands, inflation will also expand. However money velocity so far hasn’t increased. If banks begin to lend, velocity of money will expand. I’m betting that banks will begin to lend money at a decent level. I can’t buy Prechter’s deflation pronouncements at this time. He’s been wrong for years. I hope I’m correct….I have a huge bet on PM stocks.
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:36 am
Dear Dave,
I agree .. I think gold is not a bubble. Especially with the infinite amounts of money being dumped into the system. — Larry
I am a long term bull on gold, but the price action lately has me nervous. The dollar has taken out it’s previous swing high which bodes for further upside, which means further downside for gold. I just finished reading the Money and Markets article by Bryan Rich. He lays out a great case for a strengthening dollar due to the Fed closing it’s temporary liquidity swap arrangements by February 1st.
So, for now, I’m continuing to hold call options on ABX and IAG, but I am hedging those positions by periodically going short gold futures and using those profits as a buffer for the loss I am taking on the call options.
Larry, I would love to hear your opinion on the impact of the Fed closing it’s liquidity swap arrangements.
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:37 am
Dear Marc,
Conventional wisdom has it that if the Fed exits its recent strategies, that will somehow be deflationary for the markets, good for the dollar. I would say yes to that, except, that would only be the same temporarily. Let’s not forget that …
A. If the Fed is able to exit its lender of last resort policies, then the banks must take over immediately. If they can, there’s approximately 2.3 TRILLION that will be lent out, as much as NINE times over, adding more than $20 trillion of money and credit to the system. That will be highly inflationary.
B. If the banks do not take over, the Fed may have to step right back in!
Bottom line: I view any pullbacks in gold as buying opportunities, and rallies in the dollar as selling opportunities. — Larry
I believe you should have already loaded up on gold and silver. In case you missed it, the time to load up was from Nov 08 through March 09, But if you missed that chance, yes the next couple of weeks would be a fair time to start purchasing those metals, if gold retraces to the $950.00 level, thats the time to LOAD up, but thats a long way off right now, might not even be obtainable? So modest buying is what I would reccomend. We may visit the $1050.00 later this week into next week.We will have to see what happens at that point, but buying the metals is insurance and should be bought when ever you can afford to buy more. We are along way from a bubble top. that is years out, in my opinion. The dollar will proably rally for longer than most people will think. I feel this will be bringing down our gold price and silver with it. So be patient. Remember our relations are deteriorating in Japan, North Korea, and China, among other country’s. The american people can be lied too and taken advantage of, but China and Japan will not be miss lead as the american people have been mislead. Isreal is growing impatient with Iran, and sooner than you think there may be serious problems in the world as we know it today? Better have some gold and silver for such an event.
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:37 am
I agree Mike! But I wouldn’t ignore the other asset classes out there. — Larry
Larry, my fundamental, technical and cyclical analysis (Includes Weiss Group) is pointing to the deflation trade over the next 3-6 months at least, with the inflation trade pushed out for the time being. I am leaning towards your colleagues thinking over at Weiss Capital Management. Therefore, we could have a mini late 2008 scenario where ALL assets sell off except cash, treasuries and shorting the market. This may be happening as we speak. So, for the short and most likely the intermediate term, except for my core gold and silver holdings, I am in cash, short/long Treasuries, S&P Short fund and watching the UUP Dollar ETF. I think Gold/Silver will be the first of the commodity complex to come back after this period of deflation. I DO NOT see a bond crash at this time, thus no funding crisis at this time and NO real rise in interest rates. This may very well come, but not for AT LEAST 6-9 months…
Larry Edelson Reply:
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:37 am
Thanks for your thoughts. And I largely agree, except on the time frame. I do not see what’s happening now as anything but a short-term trend. For many reasons I’ve cited in my Real Wealth Report – the U.S. is not Japan, and an inflationary resolution is far more likely, given a host of other reasons, also cited in my writings. — Larry
I feel this is the time to invest in Gold.
Larry Edelson Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 7:47 am
Agreed!
load up. now or maybe never again ,
silver
95 percent in silver
My concern:
Whenever the subscribers are asked for their input, it is a signal to me that the analyist is ready to reverse position.
Case in point, Martin Weiss did this a short while ago.
hi larry,
How do you feel about canadian energy trusts for income/safety?
thank you. jeff
I have about 40% of my investable assets (non-real estate/farm/timber property) in Gold and Foreign Currencies (Mostly Swiss Francs) through Everbank. I am buying gold again now as the market price goes lower, but I am buying in small quantities of about 10 ounces at a time to avoid getting bitten by a price run-up overnight.
I am a buyer
Getting close. I would feel very comfortable at the $1000 level.
The fall of gold and commodities is a highly deflationary sign. Although long term the dollar will be worthless and one is tempted to buy gold now, there is a high risk of a second deflationary wave brought up by sluggish economic growth and unemployment around the world, multiple debt defaults and, last but not least, a China crash. The contrary argument is that the “reflation” of the economy, an eufemism for money printing, will continue and reinflate the economy. I am betting against it. And for this reason, although I am keeping my jewels and gold coins, I sold all my gold funds and I am not buying them back for now.
silver and gold bullion if i played the stock market i would buy oil and naturel gas
Larry, the more I listen to the pundits in washington, the politicians, and the president–the more afraid I am for the future of this country. I find myself investing in more gold and silver than i would really like to invest. it is such a static product. but in some ways that is its attraction.
i still also believe in oil and gas stocks. i have added a couple this week, after i was stopped out of marathon oil.
i hate holding cash due to the constant loss due to inflation and frankly the true value of the dollar is constantly dropping.
i am thinking about weiss investments and giving them a chance to manage some funds.– will make my mind up next week in florida.. see you at the show.
You must own physical precious metals, currencies are in a race to the bottom. What paper money I have will be invested in PM and oil stocks in canadian dollars once the current US dollar rally is ended.
I’m looking real good —byfollowing recos on options I’m down 90% at this point with not a chance in hell of recovering. Any more good ideas?
Roy
Larry,
I’ve just taken a real beating holding on to some silver futures. Your info doesn’t usually cover silver and it has really tanked. I can’t help think that J.P. Morgan is trying to get out of their huge short position before the regulators get serious. …yes, I know I should have put some tight stops in place while it was in the 18’s. I’m anxious to know when to get back in (more safely this time) when you feel that it has bottomed.
I’m in 100% cash right now waiting for a good opportunity to buy gold stocks. I like IAG & EGO. Have to see how inflation/deflation works out. Trend right now looks to be down. if Asia slows up their buying we could be here until summer w/these prices.
I can see why.
75% of my money is in gold 1oz coins, when gold was in the $250 range. It’s been just fine. the other 25% in Slv. This has worked well for me and I get a good nights sleep. Enjoy your letters every morning Larry, keep up the good work. PS. My home in waikiki, Penthouse is payed for.
Larry,
I think we should not load on gold;US dollar will get stronger;See your R W Report of September.2009, we going to May.2010 Major Low Down.
Thank you,
Atanas
I am still bullish on gold and gold stocks, but it looks to me like there is still short term weakness in the market. Should gold bounce below $1000, I would increase my holdings in some of the bigger gold stocks like GG. For short term gold investing, I like GLD. I follow a simple 14 day moving average tracking GLD and buy when it crosses up, sell when it crosses down. This has worked well for me and allowed me to catch a good portion of the up moves while avoiding a good portion of the down moves. I continue to hold my gold shares, although they have taken a pounding over the last few weeks, but I look at those as longer term.
as is.
I have witnessed over my lifetime and especially the last 10 years how the government lies to it’s citizens and manipulates many of the markets. I have learned not to trust the government or Wall Street. I trusr gold! Therefore I am 100% committed to precious metal investments during the current commodity bull market which will likely last another 10 years. I am used to the corrections in this market and I will not be shaken from my core positions which is 25% bullion, 40% gold mining shares, 20% small cap mining, and the balance in rare collectibles. I have no problem sleeping at night since I took control of managing my retirement portfolio.
I wanted be surprised if the dollar gets up to 82 or 83 and if that happens gold may test a 1000. that would be the time to load up.
Gold must be a part of any portfolio, I will buy more on pull back. Companies with long term dividend history………….and coverage, are a significant part of my current portfolio.
Ive been reading up about gold and silver recently and figured two things out in layman terms - with the world economies going through turmoil, owning gold would not only be a safe bet but also one that promises higher growth than other investment avenues; and secondly the long proven ratio of 15:1 between gold and silver prices has been shot over to around 60:1 currently so we should expect silver to do even better than gold. Besides, limited availability and increasing applications and uses of both metals make them fundamentally good investment avenues anyway.
Awaiting your comments and suggestions!
Gold’s upside is limited as compared to silver’s. While Chinese are showing an increase in gold demand, India’s is dropping. Gold will continue to be a store of wealth in these turbulent times but most of the upside has been achieved. Silver on the other hand is not only a precious metal but an industrial one also. Industrial demand keeps increasing, supplies continue to dwindle. If the artificial manipulation of silver is to be believed, new government initiatives seem to be geared to ending these amnipulations. All of this should see a major move in the price of silver. Due to it’s lower price it is easier to make a significant position in silver. As with gold only buy physical metals not paper trades.
Looks like gold has broken support at 1082 and could fall down to the 1025 area. I sold part of my positins in gold and silver etfs but still holding physical gold and silver from the 8060 - 950 range. I will start buying at 1025, I think.
One week ago I sold all stocks, EXK,HL,IVN,PAGG,PBU,RBY,SRS,SU,SVM.TBT,UNG and VGZ.
First time in many years I have been out of the market 100% - it is boring but relaxing. So far a good move.
I feel gold might drop a little more before it takes off. Silver might do better in the near future. Love platinum and like palladium, so will probably dip my toe in soon.
Start buying gold/silver now, but don’t back up the truck. Plan to invest more or less steadily over the next year or so.
I have a few stocks from S. Korea and India. I have a few bank stocks that I’m quickly getting out of. I have some of ProShares. A little over 50% is invested in Gold. I plan to add as much as I can in Silver but plan to purchase physical silver and junk coins. There is simply no way this country’s debt is sustainable and I want to be invested in something tangible, not smoke and mirrors.
How can gold go any higher if every last person in the world was told to load on it?
Who is there left to buy it ? and if there is one, why he or she did not done that till now?
Where will the money come from to buy gold or gold stockc to propel prices higher?
The whole world is talking of: BUY! gold and gold goes faster down on large volume than on the way up. Is every body blind?
Gold is right near the bottom of it’s uptrend channel that has been in place since August, 2008. I believe right now is a buying opportunity.
Larry,
I have subscribed to the Stansbury newsletters for a long time and have done very well with their recommendations. Over my 45 years of market investing I’ve had dozens of newsletter and unlike most people who subscribe and don’t get their money back when they are unhappy with the actual content, I was an aggressive refund seeker and got my money back. Most were not very good. So I was very reluctant to actually buy another one. However, somehow your company’s (Weiss) kept sending me emails with videos in them and with excellent insights and advice across a broad spectrum of areas. The more I read the more I was impressed so I finally bought in to your special to get everything for a fixed price FOREVER (except for a $25 a year renewal fee). I’ve made good money on your advice to date and I thank you. I have about $1,100,000 invested in the market and I’m retired so my gains are my income on which I live. Some time ago when silver was low I bought 10,000 ounces in mostly 100 ounce bars which I have in my safe. I paid $4.70 per ounce delivered to me and that has done well. So, my question is now just how high do you believe silver will go in the next three years. I told myself I’d sell it at $20 but now I’m thinking it might go to $50 in three years. Also, why don’t you and I and everyone else who holds physical silver file a suit in federal court to force the regulators to enforce the law regarding short selling of silver futures and to require silver leasees to pay back the actual silver leased at the termination of the lease before a new lease can be entered into. What they are doing is actually illegal, leasing silver that can never be returned because its consumed and selling short silver that doesn’t exist. (I’m a lawyer). Yet no one stops them from selling short in quantities that are beyond the actual total amount of silver in the entire world. Shouldn’t we do something in federal court to stop this manipulation by Wall Street sanctioned by the CFTC?
Jay Curtis
I prefer silver rather rhan gold because it’s less expensive and supposedly the silver mines are all tapped out, making it potentially more valuable based on the amount of silver used as contacts in electronic equipment.
When it’s gone, something else will have to be used.
I’m holding off loading up on Gold and Silver securities until I see signs of the trends turning UP in the following: EUR/USD or USD Futures, Gold & Silver futures and the stock market. Then I am prepared to get into Gold/Silver stocks in a big way.
Getting into Gold and Silver Securities before I see these turns is like swimming upstream against the Mississippi river. I may have short term success, but eventually will get swept away by it’s unstoppable force (trend)…
i have 27 ounces of gold coins and about 30 rolls of silver rounds. how long before it starts back up.
how come with our debts and no body want the us dollar, how can the usa dollar be going up.
thanks dave
I will buy them all at the folowing order from high to low :
Silver
GDX
Palladium
Gold
Platinum
I meant to say I need to see USD turning down before investing in Gold/Silver stocks in my previous post. There was no way to edit it…
National debt going up, Dollars being printed, metals being bought…
It seems to me that silver in the $15 range is a screaming buy, do you agree?
I believe the best safe money investment at this time is a multi-year fixed annuity, no fees, guarantee of principal (100% of principal), no rolling surrender charges and rates can be increased every 30 days especially important if we inflate. Most people think fixed annuities are a waste of time, however their is zero standard deviation and guarantee of 100% of principal and i use MassMutual with a rating of 99 out of 100 on Comdex.
I have a significant amount of both gold and silver; what is your best recommendation as to what, or where is the best place/way to maximize my investment?
I trust that this site, information is/has been secure
I don’t know and no one else does etiher!
Gold is too rich for my blood - I have been buying (and occasionaly selling some) silver for the past 30 years. I have earned quite a tidy sum doing so.
It is a much better buy than gold as there is less of it to ga around in commercial circles.
Thanks for your timely advice - stay with it Pete
Larry,
In preciuos metals I like silver but timing is everything.
Thank you Bob Perri
Late last year I was almost 30% in gold and silver. Sold down to 10% taking substantial profits. Getting back in again as some of my favorite stocks like GG are down 20%+ from their highs.
Currently I have 25% of my portfolio in pressious metals. I am concern with the dollar getting stronger driving the metals even lower. I have heavily bet that the economy is getting worse and these commodities will be a safe place to be. With this dip in the market I am even pondering adding more metals to my portfolio. I am wondering if it will be a wise move.
My entire portfolio is in physical gold and silver. I’m hoping for the China gold rush.
Larry,
I like silver in precious metals timing is important.
thank you
Bob Perri
There are some good high dividend fixed income ETFs if one can stomach the price fluctuations
I sold every stock I owned the first week of January, just before the latest downturn in the stock market. I am convinced the stock market will go below the points it reached a year ago before it starts back up. Therefore I am now invested in gold bullion and bulk silver. About 25% in gold, 25% in silver, and about 10-15% in higher grade collectible coins, both gold and silver. The rest is in cash, waiting for the turn around in the market. Hope it comes before inflation eats away too much of my cash.
Regards,
J. R. Johnson
Larry,
In precious metals I like silver timing is important.
Yhank you
bob Perri
Larry,
Regarding Fixed Income, I’m a big fan of fixed indexed annuities. Gold and Silver? short term we should see a pull back and this is a good time to add to your position. I would not back up the truck until we see gold prices under $900. Yes, I own gold / silver.
Bruce
Sure do appreciate your posts and follow-ups Larry. I like Tony’s too, but would especially appreciate his following up on earlier recos, eg, CBAK, HHILY, others.
All short-term technicals for precious metals and related equities are severely oversold. They can still go a bit lower but when they turn around, they will do so with a vengeance so trailing buy stops could be a good way to get in. However, long-term they still retain a bearish bias so this market is for short-term trading and not long-term holding.
I wouldn’t say that this is THE time to load up on silver and gold, but for a long-term investor, its as good as any. I have 20% of my portfolio in gold and silver coins plus a couple thousand shares of IAG a premier gold mining stock. With the “Messiah” in the white house and Bernanke printing money with nothing to back it, we could do worse.
Been getting out of the market or going short. I to volatile. I do not understand what is happing in China and how it affects other markets and when they will stop doing what ever they are doing. No one, not even the China expert has address it but other news outlets have tried to explain poorly.
I have an advantage over most people because I am a numismatist (coin collector) for over 30 yrs. which gives me an advantage when comes to buying gold and silver. I have gold bullion, silver rounds, semi-numismatic, and numismatic coins. I do believe that gold is the ultimate real money. Just my coin collection alone without the silver rounds has gone up faster than my stocks. I have about 50% in coins and 50% in stocks. The coins I have are the higher grade which commands higher prices. I am currently buying modern gold and platinum coins. Mostly gold with about 1/4 to 1/2 ounce in each coin. I just attended a online auction and won the bid.
If my interest in investing in gold and silver is purely from the “survivalist” standpoint to use as a medium of exchange/barter in the worst case scenario, would I be wasting my money by buying gold wedding bands from the local pawn shop and purchasing junk bags of pre 1965 silver coins?
I believe that now is an excellent time to consider the purchase of gold and silver although I believe that it will dip further and I would stagger my purchases with that in mind.
I will be sticking with the prescious metals for 2010. I have some gold and siver coins.
Yes, I think we now have another good buying opportunity in gold and silver. I like both, maybe silver
better. Platinum and palladium are not moneymetals. I will stay away from them. I will soon want to
purchase some good gold and silver mining shares. I have plenty of cash on the sideline and am ready to allocate some to gold/silver stocks. I listen to your Thursday commentary religiously. Hope
to get a buy signal from you soon. I will be watching several goldshare stock moving averages as well.
Thanks for your expertise and good advice.
The best place for money right now is in IRAs, fixed-indexed-annuities, stocks, and cash. I avoid mutual funds and indexed ETFs. Gold and silver are great investments, especially now that the world is just about totally bankrupt. A history and economics lesson that our politicians have never learned is that no nation has ever gone off the gold standard and still remained a world leader for more than 100 years — Greece, Spain, France, etc., and soon, the USA.
Fiat money doesn’t last — precious metals do!
I have physical gold and silver. My preference is to silver because of increased demand, both privately and industrially, and also because of 15 straight years of production falling short of demand. I like silver eagles both for recognition and guarantee of purity. This current pullback is simply a buying oppurtunity, the calm before the storm if you will. Inflation in the grocery store ,conveniantly left out of gov’t calculations, has already begun and, I believe, will soon spread through the rest of the economy. Survival will soon be taken far more seriously by the mainstream media.
From all of what I see and hear you’d better not trust in anything but in your own common sense and physical PM’s.
There are a lot of thieves out there that cream the top and leave the crumbs for the trusting.
Jim Sinclair the Gold bugs friend suggests the same. You can’t trust the government to help you out as they’re on free fall and will drink all they can get from your well.
Interested in gold and silver. willy
Hey Larry,
I’m a true fan of yours! I’m on SSD at $945 a month,have 4 oz.of gold and 95ozs of silver.No Cash…lol.Grateful that I have been able to accumulate that! I’m 50 so I’m long term precious metals.I’m adding monthly more and more.Your advise is one of a “true master” in investing commodities. Thank-you and keep up the good work! Gold and Silver boullion is a must add! NOW!
I bought two reccommended stock this week that I was stopped out of - CEO and JOYG. I feel like I’m just spinning my wheels and giving my money away!
I don’t know how far JPM can force down the prices of silver and gold, but I am investing and speculating mostly for the long term - not for a week or two. They might go down a bit more, due to misplaced faith in the USD, and failure by the CFTC to limit concentrated short-selling, but I am willing to be patient and wait for the USD to resume its descent against gold, if not against other currencies. I think that silver, because of the concentrated shorting, is amazingly cheap, even if it hasn’t yet hit a near-term bottom. I have been buying silver, gold, and platinum, coins and bars, in that order, with my limited free cash. In my investment and retirement accounts, I have invested a little more than 1/2 of my portfolio in silver and gold, about 2:1 silver to gold. The vast majority of that is in stocks of mining companies. Most of the rest of my portfolio is in oil, gas, and geothermal stocks. I don’t trust GLD and SLV as long-term investments.
According to your recommendation I loaded myself with gold. Now what?
I believe that the short term trend in precious metals of all stripes will be volatile, but long range they will do much better than other forms of “money”. Silver, in various forms, currently holds the most attraction for me, although storage and transport of physical silver can be a bit much.
I wish Jay luck in his proposed litigation, given a supreme court that just opened the door to much more massive corporate manipulation of the political process!
I do agree it’s time to load up on Gold! If you’ve been following Larry or Sean for any length of time you should fully realize that they’ve been extremely accurate with their forecasts. I started buying their recommendations - mainly gold stocks 5 years ago and it’s been a great ride. I agree with Larry that Gold’s run up is a long way from being over. There are so many forces at work which will push Gold much higher in the next 12-36 months…. Congrats and thanks Helicopter Ben! That’s why I welcome every pullback as a buying opportunity. It’s exciting to watch!
I like gold and silver miners or ETFs that own the metals, but I think a new low entry point or additional share nuying opportunity has yet to come. For income investors, Canadian Energy Trusts are among my favorites, especially now that the 15% Canadian Tax deduction for foreign investors may be legislated out.
I am in GNMA which holds 2.5 year durations. I am not in long term Treasuries at all!!
In November, I invested twice the amount in gold than I did in silver. This was 5% of my security investments. Since then, I have watched it drop. but it may be to my great advantage later.
Can you send me the articles on U.S. stocks and Foreign stocks? I missed those articles. Thanks.
I am currently about 20% in gold ETF and miners, 7% in silver ETF and miners and would like to add more to my position when you announce it’s time to invest again in gold and silver. I think silver will have a higher return this year if china and emerging markets continue to grow in their GDP.
I buy physical bullion with 20% in Gold and another 20% in Silver. Gold is to preserve my wealth while Silver is to increase my wealth in the future
(I believe silver is the better investment for reasons stated in comments above)
Right now I’m waiting and watching the pullback and then I’ll load up when the timing is right – which bring me to an important question: some Elliot Wave fans say that Gold will pull back to $650 before heading higher again. I personally find that hard to believe and I am looking to buy Gold again closer to $1000 oz but I don’t want to be early in my process.
What are your thoughts and will you let us know when you believe the timing is right to buy again and why do you think that?
Larry-
Am impressed with your interpretation of cycles. Wish I’d paid closer attention in March to your recommendations on the stock market. I did pay attention to your recommendations for gold investments, so I have about 10% invested split between gold mutual funds, stocks and GLD ETF.
Took some profits, selling my GDX ETF as this correction started. Plan to buy more gold and silver as this correction unfolds. I look forward to your Uncommon Wisdom updates, they help me realize when I’m on track.
I have my retirement funds in Canadian Eneryg Trusts and Silver bullion
To me it seems that yes we the people tend to shy away from anything that our government will have some kind of hold/control over ex. bonds etc. due to the fact that our currency value keeps dropping so by natural instinct we want to have things of value that we can actually see and use like the vehicle you stated. Also the other most important ones to us would naturally be gold, silver, and platinum. I feel if anything will increase in value it will be precious metals and I sure hope our country has a whole lot of it to keep afloat in this crazy economy worldwide we are mixed up in. I know it it’s a crazy idea but wouldn’t be easier and simpler to forget about all the import business and just work for ours I mean we do grow, dig or make just about everything we need don’t we? I know that will never happen in my life time or yours or maybve even ever but I believe it is possible and might just stop all these world problems(war) we are into so much and save some precious lives which is the most valuable thing we own or kinda own. Keep everything we produce etc. HERE IN U.S.A. and let everyone fend for themselves…..
Anyway this is my opinion and my opinion only and I am glad I can express it, thank you for that chance.
Virginia Garcia
Gold will break 1000 next month. I am heavy into ZSL (Ultra short silver) and I am doing nicely.
Half gold and silver and half Canadian cash.
I just purchased $20k worth of Gold eagles and some silver. I have 100 shares each of GLD and SLV. I sold all stock & mutual funds in Dec 2009. I am waiting for buying opportunities for dividend/income stocks. Using RWR and Dividend newsletters have model in 2 portfolios. What are to best times to enter these stock? Below 200d MA?
i like gold and silver
I Think the pullback in Silver and Gold thats is going on right now is a good buying for the long term,
you should expect to hold on to your Gold and Silver for 18-24 month. To Maria she is sking what to do my ansver is lean back and enjoy life and wait.
Here in California we have a lot of problems with local citys talking about going Bankrupct, because
pension obligations is skyrocking and here in L.A they are 15.000 retired people earning more than
$ 100.000 a year and it is only gonna increase so a lot of states need a bail out, so keep invest in
metals
I like Master Linited Partnerships. They offer the opportunity to grow like stocks and provide hight dividends. Currently my portfolio is about 35% in this area. They might be a little risky, however many of them are in energy transportation, ie pipelines and no matter what, you have to transport the gas or oil from one place to another. They get a cut on every barrel.
Chris Anthaume
I am paying a price for having to big a portion of my portfolio in gold and energy at the moment. A correction was expected but this is particularly nasty because of my unbalanced holdings.
Dear Larry,
I am guilty to say that I have followed your editorial for quite some time now, and could not do “anything about it” in the way to follow your advise in investing because of my dire situation. I am
not asking for sympathy, believe it…. I am just an architect, retired because of some very serious health problems I’ve had since 1992 (3 serious cancers), the last of which almost took my life away, (until as recently as 2006)… I lost all my business back East because of it and also because of other circumstances. In brief I lost practically all my income and live now on a meager social security income. Let’s keep at that without anything further to say…I managed however to buy a little amount of gold and siver and want to modestly continue to do so every months. What would you advise me to do!!! Thanks , SJL.
I sold some “Physical” two weeks ago, Over 300% up since buying in late 1990’s….What was so funny is the coin shop was next to a Citi Bank, selling real money for fiat next to the place that no longer takes the real stuff….. Enough said….
With the recent strength in the dollar and growing uncertainty with China, I feel that both gold and silver will retreat from present levels. I have not followed either platinum or palladium - maybe I should. I will probably take positions in both gold and silver when I see them forming a sustainable base. I feel that both have significant upside potential.
I’ve recently been stopped out of several positions in gold and silver. I’m holding my core mutual fund positions. I’ll wait and see if this current pull back breaks out lower or makes it way back to 1035/oz gold before establishing any new positions.
I believe that gold will drop to $985 or lower in the short term due to the value of the dollar going up. I am currently 20% in gold and silver and if gold hits this mark I will add another 5 to 10%. This is definetly a buying opportunity.
Gold - 15%
Silver - 5%
REE - 10%
Gas and geothermal stocks - 10%
Fixed-Income - 50%
Other - 10%
Is this the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals … or not? Why?
Physical Silver in one OZ. bars - it can be used to purchase necessities when the you know what actually hits the fan sometime in the next 18 months.
How much of your portfolio have you invested?
25%
Do you plan to buy more in the months ahead?
No, I am researching good Gold and Silver mining company stocks. When I purchase them I will take position of the actual shares.
I bought gold in the 70’s at $215/oz. The only trouble I find with gold is, once you hold it in your hand, you never want to let it go. So it just sits there. At least with a good stock you get dividends so you can pay your bills.
Hi Larry…i,m currently on the sideline except a couple of inverse etf,s…i think the dollar now is affecting the markets adversely…when that changes,and the dollar rolls over , i’ll probably go heavy
into quality junior gold and silver mines…..but that may be a while.. thank you Lothar
My response is simple, easy and brief - SSSSS - which is an acronym to
Stop Spending Start Saving SILVER. Diversity within the category from
bags of “junk silver” (in your possession) to major producers to junior
exploration companies
Hello Larry,
I love Your Emails! I’m very limited in Finances so I really like Silver as my main Investment. Any kind
of Paper including Stocks,Bonds Etc. Scares me! The way things are going with our Government is
Crazy! I’m a Studying Constitutionalist! And I see A Terrible Storm Brewing! Yet we as a Patriot must
continue to Defend Our Rights. Education is I feel the Only way we can reach the People! Other then
All out Revolution! We Have to Save Free Enterprise,Save Free Capitalism! And Stop this Socialism
Movement. God Bless And Thanks Again! Sincerely,John Rainger. ( The Fiat Money has to Stop.)
Wait for gold to trade below 1K then start buying slowly.
It must be time to load up on gold and silver, because I am already loaded and fearful. These are two great buy signals. Also, many are calling a top in gold, another great buy signal.
Since gold is real money, I consider buying gold as shorting the market. There have been three major corrections in the last 100 years. One ended in 1933, the second in 1980 and we are currently in the middle of the third major market correction. In the previous two corrections, the price of the DJIA in terms of gold ounces has reached a 1:1 ratio. It is very clear that this will happen again sometime within the next decade. In the long term, gold is the best option; however, as we approach the market correction event silver will likely outperform gold significantly.
That being said, I have been very heavy in gold and silver. I would not purchase gold or silver today (1/29/10), as I believe we are likely to see more on the downside, however I don’t think you’ll lose in the long term if you bought gold or silver today.
Last week I sold most of my oil , utilities, agriculture, dollar short., and some mining. Made a good return, and have saved from the sale since. Buying gold and silver since has not been a good idea.
What to do? wait for 950?
We just went long on gold and silver
I’m watching UUP ($ up) very closely. The five day graph, RSI, and MACD look like they are trying to turn over. It may well be time to buy physical gold and silver. However, my big investment has been made — now I’ll just add to my position when I think it is time. I’m in no hurry. The dollar is about the only place many countries have to invest as their own Fiat Currency is worse off than ours. The dollar may go up some more. Larry’s long term $ forecast is right. I feel that physical gold is your stash. Silver (trash — pre 63) is what you will use to buy groceries and survive.
BTW — each of us should be paying close attention to what Richard Russell is saying about today’s market. Be very careful.
rockhound2
Tough call on gold. Your colleague Sean Brodrick thinks gold is headed to $945. Your low estimate is nowhere near that low. One of your other colleagues thinks the dollar is set for a huge rally. I am sure that will not be good for gold. With this many conflicting opinions from basically the same team it is hard to get too aggressive in either direction on gold. Who knows who is correct.
Chuck Leech
I bought 1665 ounces of gold in april 04 at $421 spot I think gold is poised for a major upswing after we get thru this correction. How people can put their money in the US dollar is beyond me.
When people finally wake up and realize the dollar is in trouble it will be too late.
Larry,
I’m in your Real Wealth Report Portfolio w/ some gold and natur. resources shares. - Fisical, I got some 1 Oz. Amer. Silver Eagles . Please let us know, when is the best moment to load the dump truck w/ more Silver/Gold… RC
The market has to go thru a correction before REAL recovery to get $ out of bad investments.Deflation seems more likely BEFORE inflation..no? Keynsian vs Austrian economic theory, inflation vs deftion… Worries me the sentiment is so complacent. Not a time to buy gold or stocks until S&P 1020 or below? Though some value plays like BRK.B seem strong?
CURRENT TARGET ON SILVER IS 10.50
(front month futures)
Gold stocks are VERY oversold, and in support areas. I am just waiting for signs of a bottom for at least a good rally. And of course, longer term, you must own gold.
I have been reading and following Ted Butler’s commentary on silver for some time, and I am “all in” in silver. I have as much silver bullion as I can afford, and am continuing to buy SLV (in my IRA brokerage account) as JP Morgan et al continue to manipulate the price lower. I believe that if the CFTC actually does hold an open meeting on metals - as they have said they will - in early March, that that may be the turning point (if not before) in the manipulation by the large shorts in Comex silver. If so, and the CFTC does enact some meaningful position limits, and if JPM does liquidate their short positions, things could get crazy in silver pretty quick.
I read somewhere some time ago that the long term ratio between the price of gold and silver is 16 to 1. In that case, with the price of gold around $1100, silver should be $65 to $70. As the price of gold goes up - some say to as high as $2,000 (?) - then I would expect silver to follow along.
But I wouldn’t wait, because the biggest move in silver will probably happen between now and March - or shortly after - as JPM manipulates the price and continues to unwind their short positions.
This is only one (very) possible scenario, and as someone said previously, with the govt. anything is possible. But even so the supply/demand factors in silver are so compelling that something will have to give, and I believe it will be sooner than later!!!! And then we will all make money in silver whether we bought at $4.00 or $18.00!
Good Luck to All
Dave P.
Portland, OR
It looks like what they’ve been calling a “sucker’s rally” is finally over!
I believe precious metals will do well in 2010. Now is a good time to buy when the the metals are in a slight down trend getting ready to move higher in the coming month. Several financial analysts agree that precious metals will do well in 2010 especially gold and gold stocks.
I have used all of my finances for investing already in Gold and Oil and have lost. Do I get out of these stocks and take the loss and reinvest or hold on until they come back up and will they come back shortly or not at all to where they were in the past year? Do things look like they will get worse before getting better and I will have to hang on for a couple of years for these stocks to come back?
Gold can decline a little more,but i intend to buy more of gold stocks, silver stocks, i have 10% of my portfolio in gold right now.If I see confirmation of up leg in gold i will buy up to 25-30% of my portfolio in gold and silver. I think silver will go up more than gold in the future.
I do plan to move very aggressively once I believe gold has hit its near term bottom which Larry spelled out in Real Wealth.
My candlesticks tell me we are not yet at the low for gold. I sold a few gold companies & will buy back(?soon)
I think that now may be a time to lightly purchase gold mining shares such as KGC and maybe Paas. For example; since I am interested in purchasing these two stocks I would first buy 1 deep in the money KGC call option and 1 deep in the money Paas call option. This way if a rally in gold and silver takes off suddenly as is possible in this existing volatile enviroment I would be positioned for it.At the moment the US dollar is very strong ( I already have positions in UUP call options and began winding part of these positions down at a small profit) I have also lightly purchased a deep in the money call option KGC $14 Sept. 2010. If the dollar drops in value which I am sure it will eventually and maybe very soon, then I will position my portfolio with more commitment to gold, silver and oil stocks. However, at this time I am only lightly invested in these investments but watching the market closely.
I own physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium as an insurance policy just like for my home and auto. I do not get back premiums paid for home and auto even if I make no claims, but should the need arise to use my PMs in some catastophe any “premiums” I paid for my PMs will have been worth it. If the value of my PMs increase, that is a bonus; if values decline, that is the risk. If I do not need to use my PMs in my lifetime they can be passed on to heirs. Buy more? Maybe. Sell? No!
I have some gold, little silver also Ira’s a few Cds and a annuity that pays some very good interest. but no bonds they don’t pay enough. not sure which way to jump.
I have been loading up on metals all last year but now I am saving up my money for what I “owe” in taxes for last year from the mortgage modification default and from my brokerage account capital gains. I loaded up before it hit $1000 and stopped except to get one of each of the rare 2009 American Eagle and Buffalo coins. I am waiting for a pullback back to under $1000 and that would buy me time to save up and load up again before it really takes off. Silver, however, is my favorite metal and I have a lot more in silver than gold. I have some palladium and platinum but bought it when the car companies failed but then when i tried to buy more, it shot up faster than gold percentagewise so I continued to buy gold and silver instead.
But fellow gold and silver collectors, if you have extra money lying around in fixed CDs collecting 1.5%, cash them out, pay the early withdrawal penalty, and buy some metals. The capital gains will more than make up the penalty. I don’t want to say wait until the market drops gold to $950 because it may not but it is now or never because loose money or Helicopter Ben is re-elected and will definitely do the same things he has always been doing because he thinks what he is doing for the economy is “good” but it is not. This is the very definition of insanity, electing the same guy and expecting better results.
Hellow Larry,
I also appreciate your emails.I am invested i pc metals ,primarily silver .Do you think one is better than the other ,speaking of gold or silver going foward..Right now I am invested in silver.I keep missing the ups and downs of the metals.I like your advise,but I need you or someone else to give me closer alerts.I am willing to pay for a subscription.Can and will you help me?Also,is silver going to drop much more?Also would you recommend stocks by the letters AENY and JYHW?Thanks!!!!
I think Silver Wheaton is best for long term silver and Goldcorps for gold, Manas Petroleum for oil.
Looks like you were wrong on silver you said it was going to $22, however it has tanked to less than $16. Is it a buying opportunity or get out time on any strength. If we are in a deflationary environment like many people think its going lower as the dollar goes higher. Dont know whether to buy more at these levels or cut my losses.
Larry,
I would like to build a portfolio to incorporate both income-producing vehicles and inflation protection vehicles.This portfolio could include currencies,real estate,stocks,bonds, and metals.
Need your advice.
Best wishes,
George.
lar
What with currencies in the toilet, Bonds are very risky, and market volitality everywhere, I like Precious metals and some preferred dow stocks. My trading account is inactive due to unpredictable stocks/sectors/exchanges.
I was About 20% emerging market stocks paying dividends. I cashed in those stocks realizing a 11% gain since October 2009. Those funds are now in gold mining shares. 20% in gold mining shares I cashed in January 21 for a gain of 21% since last November. These stocks have been reinvested in gold mining stocks. 10% in oil &natural gas stocks which I am still holding. 40% in gold bullion coins, 5% silver coins. 5% in asian stocks. So I guess I am a gold bug holding 40% now in gold mining shares.
Thanks to for all the good recomendations
What part of “I don’t trust any opinoin” is unclear?
EXPLAIN! ?????
loading up on precious metals,,, ABSOLUTELY,, one can really ever call tops or bottoms,, some of us can do it within 10 percent or so ?? ,, but yes, i have or “will” have approximately 25 percent of my self managed IRA in gold options, and junior miners specializing in Gold, Solver, Copper & Molybdenum… in the weeks to come i’ll be cashing out of one or 2 of the most beaten up banks, and then moving a larger percentage in to the “juniors” and silver,, hopefully it serves me well
Hi Larry,
It seems gold and silver are the best bets, if one is not very familiar with the workings of the stock markets. However, I truly enjoy reading uncommon wisdom and watching all of your videos, so please continue providing advice (especially for cautious investors wary of the stock market). When are you coming to Hawaii? I think we could benefit from the knowledge and skills you and your team have to offer.
Aloha,
D
my professional guess is the dow will slide down around 9800 and gold will slide with it long time to get to the top quick slide down watching very closley though rby hl and a possible mfgd trgd bob
I am starting to layer into the best silver play ,surprisingly you don’t talk much about Larry,Heres my gift to you cause as far as me looking @ your rec,s from real wealth report i did not see it.Companies called Silvercorp Metals ..by far best silver play out there.Solely mine in China and have dramatically underestimated their reserves from millions to billions of silver reserves..yes billions!!!!!The vein under the great Chu Wall (by the way I was there) wassuppose to be 36 miles ..it ran 186 miles,They are not only or will be the largest silver producer but they have the least cost per ounce to produce silver @neg.6 bucks as China buys the lead and zinc concentrate they garner while obtaining their silver,So silver is my thing right now as the ratio is way out of wack to gold @ 60 to 67…this has to resolve closer to 20 in the next 2 years,For more conservative slw…they got some great stuff coming with goldcorp .Hope this helps
I think gold and silver both held above support at $1075 and $16.00 this week, and these will be the lows.I currently hold about 60% mining stocks, 10% misc stocks and 30% cash. No way would I buy any treasury or municipal bonds.
I have been a loyal reader for a couple years and believe Larry knows what he is talking about. I peronally like gold + precious metals + commodities and energy, however I feel I am to heavy in gold paper stocks what should I do????
According to my charts the USD is in a strong up trend. While the dollar is up commodities like Gold and Siver will continue to go down. Until gold and silver cross the 50/200 day MACD line its not a buy. I just buy physical silver on the dips.
Last chance to buy silver at a reasonable price; jury is out on gold right now. Heavier on silver than gold; lighter on silver/gold stocks - some are hitting their stops. Defensive with SDS, EUO, TBF. Holding bullion in one way or another. Believe a storm is coming.
Larry
Gold is a tough call right now. It seems that ever since gold was available through an ETF it trades in line with the DOW rather than inversely as it has done in the past. I think if you purchase physical gold right now you should be in good shape, but I would not be surprised if physical gold trades at a hefty premium compared with “paper” gold (GLD).
I’m betting on Canadian Energy Trusts and similar dividend stocks. I’m hoping we will see a good increase in investers in these stocks as summer approaches since this is when oil consumption ramps up. I’m a little nervous about long term due to the large number of option ARM and alt-A resets in the fall and the state of the commercial loan market. I’m hoping to lock in some gains in early summer and wait and see what happens in the fall.
It is time again to back up the truck. Gold appears to be holding around the 1080-1090 support level. I currently have 25% of my portfolio postioned in gold ETF’s, Funds and Stocks.
This is another buying opportunity. I bought my first gold fund-Tocqueville-about 4 years ago when gold was much, much cheaper and I wish I had bought more than just $50,000. worth.
I am also looking at the PTM-the platinum ETF.
MY FIRST PICK IS SILVER BECAUSE I BELIEVE THE SILVER RATIO WILL COME MORE IN LINE WITH GOLD.& ENERGY STOCKS. RIGHT NOW I AM SELLING SHORT TERM PUTS THAT I BELIEVE ARE GOOD STOCKS. I ALSO LIKE TO BUY LEAP CALLS. THE OPTION ROUTE APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST INVESTMENT WITH THE MOST REWARD.
I got caught looking the other way holding too many mining stocks
I hold both all four of the metals you mentioned in coin form. I also own ETF;s in gold, silver and platinum. I believe it is time to own all of these metals. I am not so eager about palladium since it seems to only surpass platinum when the miners strike the platinum mines. Most eager about gold.
I am a trend follower so right now I would say NO. I will watch closly for a reversal and then start buying.
Cecil
I believe the present full value of AU is ~ $1,040/oz, just what India paid. The powers that be will prop up the US $ short term, but longer term, even 18 months out…AU will climb again. Has to. Print, print, print. The US federal govt is on a spending run away beyond any historical comparison.
If/when AU gets up above the $1,500/oz….. this will push many smaller budget precious metals buyers into silver. AG should price climb rapidly at that point…. and catch up to it’s tradtional AU/AG ratios. Buy gold below $1,000. If you can buy a silver American Eagle below $20, what’s the matter with that?
DEAR LARRY: IVE TAKEN YOUR THOUGHTS TO HEART AND LOADED UP ON SILVER & GOLD MINING STOCKS!! HOWEVER; ONE GREAT DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANY THAT IVE OWNED SINCE 1989 IS SET TO EXPLODE THIS YEAR; BECAUSE THEY ARE THE BIGGEST ENERGY WIND TOWER PRODUCER IN THIS US OF A. OTTER TAIL CORP. SYMBOL; OTTR. CHECK THEM OUT. SINCERELY HOMER
WAITING FOR THE FUTURE YOU KNOW IS NEAR…..WITH OUR DOLLARS…..WITH THE UP AND DOWN OF THE MARKETS EVEN THOUGH YOU HAVE INVESTED IN GOLD, SILVER,ENERGY, AND
HAVE SMALL PURCHASE OF GOLD COINS…….IS THE BEST I CAN DO AT THE MOMENT.WITH THE LIMITS OF RESERVE DOLLARS I FEEL IS NECESSARY.
I have 3 gold stocks. I am wondering what I will do with my physical gold - just sit on it and watch it go down like I did in 1980? I have 50% of my portfolio in Canadian Royalty Trusts. Way to go!
I have put one third of my money in gold and silver where else do you suggest I put money,I am afraid of the dollar.
I am waiting on the sidelines for gold to hit 1,075 or less, will then buy. Ideal would be 950-1,000. Same action or more on silver. I think that when we see the USD/EUR change course and that will be sooner than later, that will be a strong indicator for me to buy the metals again. I am a currency day trader and keep a good eye on these trends lately.
HAVE BEEN INVESTED IN GOLD AND SILVER SINCE THE MID 60S. THESE ARE DAYS OF JAMES DINE AND EARLY DAYS OF HARRY SCHULTZ AS WELL AS VERN MEYERS AND MANY OTHERS.
HAVE NOT BEEN INVOLVED IN STOCKS FOR YEARS . I AM A HARD CORE GOLD AND SILVER ADVOCATE AND BELIEVE IN IT AS THE BASIS OF PRINTING MONEY. HATE KEYNES AND LOVE VON MISES. FRANZ PICK AND OTHERS WHO HAVE TRIED TO EDUCATE US. HATE THE FEDERAL RESERVE. FAVORITE BOOK IS “FIAT MONEY INFLATION MONEY IN FRANCE”
Heavy into silver. I’m not holding my breath for the CFTC to do the right thing. I wonder if JPM is buying physical metal after it shorts, as well as with all the TARP money. Will buy more gold if it goes to $1000, and more silver at $15.
Wish you would address more agricultural funds. People need to eat and wear clothes… If the economy doesn’t improve, people still need wheat and cotton, also an inflation hedge. If it does improve it can only go up! WHich ones do you like best ?
With the down market in Real Estate due to Short Sales and Foreclosures, it is a good time to capitalize to take advantage of the tradgedies facing the many. Rather than thinking about it as profiting on someone elses misseries, it does seem to help many suffer LESS than if you didn’t participate. As to currency, the greatest opportunity to make big bucks is in the metals—if you can weather the rather precipitous drops happening to gold, and enter your portfolio in a steady dollar averaging method until it really does reach a bottom–no way to go but up! Where is that? Well, it certainly is not down to $275/oz. How can the value of gold be steadily going down if the dollar is supposedly weakening day by day? It is obvious that the Biblical saying of “He who has, GETS—and he who has LITTLE, even that which he has is taken away!!” (A rough quote) But it is evident that gold has knocked out most of the secure stops of all but the deepest pockets—leaving deep pockets to pick up the majority of gold at bargain prices. I decided to try Forex practice plan where they give you $50,000 to start with (a fairly nice imaginary nestegg).
I was very conservative to begin with and made $3500. the first day or two before gold–instead of increasing to $1500/oz fell from about $1175/oz to $1125 which is where dumb me thought that might be the bottom! No, I started adding gradually from $1115 on down to $1070 and I still have reserve to buy gold if it goes lower. Thank goodness, it’s Monopoly Money and I don’t ever sell until my accumulation is going to come when it all goes up to $1500+. Only one problem though, like a lot of commodity options, I only have a few days left till my 30 day practice wad runs out! The deep pockets have won again!!!!
Richard
Long term I’m betting on Metals and Oils
Larry, I believe that our currency will fail because our economy has failed and we as a nation are completely bankrupt and living on credit.
That leaves me with few choices for economic (and physical) survival.
First, I must secure a means to escape this country or live in a place within it that is going to be safe from the scavenging hordes without food, water, work, or means to escape.
I prefer to live in another country. One that uses a sound currency based on resource wealth.
As for investing in American stocks and other assets, well, they are mostly denominated in dollars.
I do not want to be in dollars the day that the dollar fails.
So, I am investing in foreign and sound enterprizes.
I seek income and safety. I seek a place that is worthy as a place to live and invest.
I love America. But
I plan on surviving the day of reckoning that is coming.
Our government thinks it can be avoided or delayed or bought off.
Our debts are just too great and our means too small.
Therefore, I plan to have a medium of exchange that will work after the dollar fails (and half the world
with itl). And a way to protect that gold. I plan to have food and water ready for that day.
I do not like thinking like this. It is giving up on America. I know.
But, from what I have seen and see, America has NO chance of ever becoming solvent again.
I did not make or approve of these enormous debts and feel no responsibility to pay them off. ..Nor do I have the means to anyway.
So, when one is up agaist a foe that is too big and too dangerous to fight there are only two choices…
Fall back or Die.
It sounds cowardly. But why would I go over the cliff with all the other cattle just because I to not wish to look bad?
Gold, Guns, Food, Water…And an exit plan. What is your plan?
Aloha, Tom B.
I’m not smart. I think private debt contraction/world derivatives of almost a Quadrillion dollars potentially defaulting will overwhelm central bank created inflation. Precious metals will have to be kept for several years at least. Gold has to hold 1073 level, if not it is going to get cheaper. However if you really need gold you might not be able to get it. The S&P is no fun either, it has another month down, then sideways for balance of the year.
Hi Larry I bought silver eagles at 12.00 per oz I have corporation bonds GE FORD GM and bric fund J P MORGENBOND ANDWELLS FARGO ONE MUNI
I MUST BE HONEST WITH YOU MOST OF MY MONEYS ARE TIED UP IN PROPERTYS. BUT I DO READ YOUR LETTERS. I THINK THAT THE MARKETS ARE STILL TO RISKY. ALSO WALL ST. HAS BEEN TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LITTLE GUYS LIKE MYSELF FOR TO LONG THERE IS NO FAIR PLAYING FIELD. I KNOW TOO MANY PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST A LOT OF MONEY ON WALL ST.
Hi Larry, currently have 40% stocks, of which is split 8/32, International/large cap respectively and from your rec-co’s probably will progress to more International weight …… hedge funds 11% that includes 10 ozs. small bars and 21 ozs. GLD ETF ….. bonds are mixed short term, long/intermediate and multi-sector fixed that totals 30%. Hold some reservations about government confiscation of assets even considering the 28% capital gains tax. They privatize profits but socialize debts … While we are no longer on the Gold standard do you feel they might? With Ben’s propensity to print whenever, and central banks diversifiying into Gold, could this be a double play on Gold? Is it why Gold, the Fed is holding in New York is only valued at $44.00/oz.? I doubt the people of this Republic would be as naive as they were in 1933 …. I do not feel this government wants mass resistance or an escalation of domestic violence that confiscation surely would trigger and they probably will get anyway, if unemployment rises to Depression-era numbers! While aware of your comments that they don’t have to confiscate, I have to admit I would not put it passed this administration. Cash is 1/3 total …. Balanced represents 16%. Just today executed two of your more recent re-co’s, 200 shares NGD and 500 shares DPTR.
To buy precious metals the answer is YES, YES and YES!!!!
I am truly concerned that IRAs, 401(k)s and other retirement accounts will soon be ravaged by a bankrupt government that thinks we work for it. I see oppressive, wealth-robbing thievery on the horizon: means testing to tax Roth IRA distributions, a mandatory percentage of government bonds in retirement accounts, and even higher income taxes based on how well your retirement account grows in a tax year.
I have quit making 401(k) contributions, even though my employer reinstituted its match, and just take the taxed income to buy precious metals and to spend to help my extended family. (They’re struggling even now and don’t even see the potential danger on the horizon. I love them and feel obligated to help, but I pray they don’t take me down with them. Or move in!) My main choice in precious metals, given the way I now see things, is silver — coins, rounds and bars. Silver is the cheapest per ounce, thus, it’s the most affordable and will probably appreciate comfortably based on that affordability.
Larry,
1 - I think the Precious metals have another week to 10 days of downward movement before the bottom of this trend.
2 - about 75% of my portfolio is in Precious metals. Primarily Silver Hecla Stocks and options. I will not buy more because of 3- below..
3 - My Favorite is Silver with the most likely growth.( Hecla has a 2 month cycle which I was afraid to trust). Sooooo - I have lost a good deal of value in the last downturn but am holding all postions expecting a reverse in thee trend.
What are yoyur feelings re above .
Good luck to both of us.
Johnmurphy@zoominternet.net
Larry,
1 - I think the Precious metals have another week to 10 days of downward movement before the bottom of this trend.
2 - about 75% of my portfolio is in Precious metals. Primarily Silver Hecla Stocks and options. I will not buy more because of 3- below..
3 - My Favorite is Silver with the most likely growth.( Hecla has a 2 month cycle which I was afraid to trust). Sooooo - I have lost a good deal of value in the last downturn but am holding all postions expecting a reverse in the trend.
What are yoyur feelings re above .
Good luck to both of us.
Johnmurphy@zoominternet.net
I believe the $ is going down,therefore gold and silver should do well, as will oil because global demand will continue to increase. Canadian oil trusts pay in canadian dollars and should do well.
The time to buy will come soon. Waiting for spot Gold to drop to $1010-1050.
Have 30% of Portfolio in Gold and Silver Bullions ETF (t.cgl.un and t.svr.un). It is a lot!
Plan to increase to 40% to include major miners(t.xma) and Platinum.
Order of preference: Gold, Silver, Platinum
Hope you are right, Larry! No pressure intended; this was my decision as last year I did not know where to put my money. That is how I came to the precious metal markets.
Hi Larry!
I feel strongly that you are the most altruistic financial advisor in the U.S. —perhaps the world!—and I have the greatest respect and admiration for you.
However, besides technical analysis, fundamentals and economic cycles, I also apply astrology, numerology and even the spiritual interpretation of the so-called Mayan calendar—don’t laugh before the end of October! Hence, I feel strongly that this year will be economically and financially terrible for the West, and there will be “panic buying” of gold and silver (my preference as the “poor man’s gold”) before November.
I will gladly offer you details at your request.
Thank you for your generous financial advice to everyone that is truly admirable.
Bill Maynard
Although I currently have 15 to 20% in global bond funds, 30% in oil/gas related equities, precious metals related equities and etf’s and potash. I have since the mid 90’s been acquiring physical precious metals, which although part of my overall portfolio I consider separate from my investment resources. It’s just my mindset. Since September I went to around 50% cash awaiting what I believe would be a pull back. I look to place those cash assets back into equities in both precious metal equities and oil and gas related equities when I see prices I like. Hope to keep at least 10% in cash for a major pull back.
In short, Oil and gold is where the market will shine in 2010. Once the Dow/Gold ratio gets into low single digits, I will be looking elsewhere. Oil will only go up from this point, too much global demand that is growing combined with declining resources. Oil will top gold or anything else from 2011 on.
I have made excellent profits since July 2009 in gold, silver, copper , iron ore and other industrial materials. Market’s retreat has been expected for some time. I believe it will drift lower in the next couple months and I will be ready to gradually accumulate these stocks for another ride up! There is no long term retreat for these commodities. However with the recent ETF’s of platinum and palladium I think they will drain a lot of investing dollars out of gold.
During the past few months, I have been working towards accumulating a target of 50% in physical gold & silver (mostly coins). I know that there is a premium on coins, but I want to take physical possession of the metals and take comfort in the fact that I have “Real Money” to spend when our fiat money collapses. I have recently stopped out on my gold & silver ETF’s , and mining stocks. I’m waiting for a good reentry point. I had tight 10% stops on them. The rest of my portfolio is primarily invested in BRIC securities (ETF’s and other misc. index funds).
I have slowly purchased gold from the $400 level on a consistant basis. I have cash to buy more Gold as it drops to 1025; then I will buy Gold and if it hits 980 I will be all in. If not I will add as Gold climbs back to $1100. I am concidering 15% in silver if it hits $15 and the rest in Gold. I do not understand the OTHER presious metals, so no comments
Frankie
In addition to gold and silver in ounce rounds and coins I have diversified into scrap coinage(,900 fine US silver coins) so I will be able to make change when I get handed a one ounce piece(when folks won’t take your dollars a few .45 rounds will be the new change!). I read that during the gold rush in SF folks paid as much as 20% to cash a $50 coin. also collectibles make a nice way to hold silver. antique silverware (pitchers,coffee pots, etc ) go for slight premiums to metal at melt and have use and contribute to domestic tranquility! Learning to speak gold ,gunz,barter, and geometry will all contribute to surviving the coming economic distortions being played out by the idiots running the banking systems and the IMF. Lately friends are learning the value of metal investment and buying lots of lead and brass. With the food system in Amerika based on a 3 day cushion before the shelves go empty having food stored like some religious sects advise may be the best investment of all! Next best ,buy your own island!
I am A silver bug, I feel it is the best bet for your money. I buy as much as I can as often as I can.
The next 10 years or more well hold A great many opportunities to make great money in many commodities.
George here, Larry. How much of a move up to you expect for gold in 2010?
Silver, silver, and more silver—anything related to silver. Eagles, bars, 90% junk bags. Rare earth stocks too.
i own 200 shares SLV and comptemptlating a utility paying 5% dividend
[Site under const.]
AS far as fixed income, [assuming we are talking retirement] there are several approaches. AAA rated, non-callable insured Municipal Bonds are attractive, as long as you are not concerned about selling them at any time in the micro distant future. When interest rates go up, and I think they will, your bonds at todays rate will drop in value. With that said, the warmest and fuzziest income producer is an Annuity. DO NOT ANNITIZE AN ANNUITY! My most recent one was entered into a 3 year affair, guaranteeing AT LEAST 7.25%, with no risk of principal.
Anything else is more risky. I don’t like my retirement money at ANY risk. Zero risk is okay with me and none other.
Gold and silver platinum and palladium. I own physical PM (precious metals) for years, beginning 18 years ago, and am WAY ahead of ANY other investment on an annual percentage of increase in value by a long shot.
I have been adding to my “trvove” until gold broke the $1000 level, and silver the $15 mark. I moved about 40 days ago into Palladuim (PAL) when it was 320 per ounce. I am convinced Palladium will surpass Platnium but both will surpass old highs easily, and gold will be more than platinum in the near future.
Palladium easily replacing Platinum and used more in medical-industrial uses, and even where catalysts are needed, palladium is just as good or better than Platinum
For silver SIVR so far has been tracking silver perfectly. I have some but am more comortable with the physical but will prolly add more silver soon.
About a year ago I began trading my physical metal and dollars for numismatic coins, as I can store more dollars in smaller place and I believe Numismatics will do great percentage wise soon, and then when the real economy and our lovely politicans and the Fed can no longer hide reality, PM’s will really have their day. I will begin selling into that panic re: the dollar not doing so well regardless of how you compare it to other currencies.
If you like you may go to the bank and buy physical Austrailian dollars. Will the US$ go away? NOPE. BUT it will-may take a lot of them to buy something, (more than it does now) regardless of how ’strong’ the US$ is compared to other currencies. Mark my words, the entire planet sucked up those bad loans, and put the printing presses into high gear. When this float stops floating, and all this money supply hits the market, your inflation in all currencies wil hit. IN ANY case, give me 1000 oz of gold and I will never miss a meal. If I am totally wrong about this senario, then you have your Annuities, your home Real Estate, etc, and will your numismatic coins become worthless? Will we throw our gold silver etc away? I think not.
Consider how many gurus want you to buy - sell stocks, it is going up, it is going down.
Again, give me 1000 oz of gold an I will not go hungry.
Good luck
happy grins
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
The question regarding gold and silver is I believe is primarily this- can we sustain what we have been doing? Can we continue to live in 5000 sq. ft. homes, maintain the worlds highest medical costs, dive over sized SUVs and continue to run high (ie actual 17%) unemployment?
I visited my local gold and silver deal recently and they were extremely busy.
Hi Larry!
P.S. I forgot to mention that the USD should collapse before November and the Saturn-Pluto exact square on Sunday (31st) should be the catalyst for a strong PM rally in February. Personally, I think real estate has further to fall, but this projection is merely my Piscean foreboding for America now.
Bill Maynard
Larry, I am buying the dips slowly, bullion, miners, juniors adding on each fall. Hopefully $1070.00 will hold, we saw 2 attempts to break thru, Thursday and Friday. If it breaks, I will back up the truck around $980.00.
Larry-
What can yo tell us about Silvercorp Metals as mentioned above?
I sold my all my holdings on 01/12/10.I don’t like the risk to reward the market is showing me.There is to much negative news coming out of europe and china.I”m in the market to make money,when I’m ahead,and I do not like the market environment,I sell.To me,holding stocks in this day and age for the long term,or,thinking the market is going to come back from a decline,so,I’m just going to hold on, is a suckers bet.Don’t forget,playing the markets is a gamble.That is why, ‘markets’, are known as,”THE BIG CASINO.”
Silver seem right in there
John
Larry, when the charts signal the reversal of this correction in the gold bull market, that would be the time to re-enter it on the long side. This will be preceded by reversal of recent correction in US Dollar Index bear market. This has not yet happened, therefore,the time to reload on gold and/or silver has not arrived yet.
Regards, Anthony.
I am inclined to go with silver at this time. If it drops below $15. per oz. it is time to buy.
Paul
Larry, I just covered my short position in Gold with a decent profit… I may be a little too
early but I expect a correction in Gold very soon … I may even get long for a few days
while I’m waiting for the down draught to resume !!! I sold my dollars also expecting
a short term correction before it resumes it’s bull run…Don’t expect much time lapse
in this correction !!! For the long term I’ll be mostly short all except the Dollar. Seeing
as how stocks and commodities around the world have a lots of shrinking to do !!!
Of course, there will always be issues here and there that will have short term bullish
potential… I’ll take advantage of those also as they come under my radar scope !!!
I think around 2014-15 we could see another bull market on the horizon !!!
I’m routing for you guys down in the swamps, I hope you trade wisely !!!
As always Dr Rich
The economy has been so mishandled that as time plays out the markets will have to come down and bring down the dollar.
Remember these are the roughest markets since the thirties and volatility will come and go. Goldcorp has been up and down and back twice in the last couple of years. British bonds are in trouble and Gross of Pimco will not buy US treasuries.. Japan will soon also be borrowing from other countries as the US does.
By mid year, defaults will increase hugely with 2 more years of bad Res RE mortgages that will fail. All of this cant be good for the dollar. 1.1 trillion in option and AltA ARMS readjust Jan 2010 till Aug 2012. 80% are failing. Pile on the Comm RE peoblems and you have the big crash–Subprime was just the opener…
Eventually investors will realize that US Treasuries and the US dollars are not safe havens, that leaves precious metals as the last safe haven that is internationally desired and recognized.
That is where we still want to be when that realization is reached. I believe that this is the pivotal year. If stocks will fall, bonds will fall, real estate continues to fall and the dollar eventually has to weaken, the only instrument left as a safe haven will be the precious metals and their miners.
Right now I’m in A rated bank money market funds (took 9 banks at max joint account FDIC protection) but as we move closer to a total melt down of all assets I will move to all cash (as in green backs). Once Gold goes below $700 or so I will consider buying it if it stabilizes. I think you should consider the deflation thats coming at us before you start to worry about inflation. Just like the dollar that wouldn’t go beyond 78.50 it is now up to 79.47 as I write this.
WE HAVE SOLD MOST OF OUR GOLD COINS AND RECEIVED TOP MARKET PRICE VIA EBAY.
WE ARE VERY SENIOR AND FOLLOW THE JEWISH GUY WHO SAID “TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN”
YOU WORRY ABOUT FUTURES, OPTIONS AND WHATEVER…WE PREFER TO COUNT WHAT WE HAVE MADE AND ENJOY TODAY AND TOMORROW..IN VERY MODEST CONFORT. THANK YOU
It’s imperative that individuals protect themselves against the government-caused erosion of the value of the dollar. What’s the loss in the value of the dollar since the Federal Reserve was created? 90+%? I’ll take gold, silver, wheat, sugar, oil, land - anything of real value, rather than paper.
Those trader which long gold position should be out of the game now.If you know how to trade,it is time now,enjoy the game.
dear sir, i believe in phsical possession of gold, and i like to have it, i had bought some at 1250, now it has come down to 1082, i am wondering if it will go further down, or should i go ahead and buy some today, plz advise
currently and for the last 10 years I am 85% in silver bars, silver coins, and silver & gold stocks. I try to guess the spikes to sell and buy the dips. At present we are close to a bottom but not quite there yet. These precious metal bull markets are so much fun. As long as I remember that the trend is my friend, I will survive. I had a lot of fun in 1979-1982 and have been patiently waiting for this to happen. I jumped back in in 2001. This market will make 1980 look like tiddly winks.
Keep up the good work. I ONLY follow you , Sinclair, and Ted Butler.
regards,
Joe Lewis
I’m recently unemployed, taking advantage of government largess. But the little I have is in Gold, Silver, and inverse ETF’s on the Dow. Recognizing all the cycle work to date, I think we are hearing the creaking and cracking of the foundation of the bounce. I expect further, signifiant correction in the Dow; maybe not the March lows, but it’ll pass that sooner than we think. The cycle theory has shown the proof over the long run; it doesn’t time the tops and bottoms, I think the 30’s bear bounce is done. That’s my speculative trade. The metals are for round 2, which will be a bit negative with the rush to dollars when the bounce down speeds up which will move most commodities down and the dollar up, but I’ll never sell those holdings (bullion and ETF’s). The metals are the last car in the train as the Fed barrels into the wall. The last car is usually the safest place to be. At least you walk out alive with only a few scratches and bruises. Stocks/equities are in the plush car, behind the loco and tender!
My portfolio is about 25% gold, and the rest looks a lot like most of Larry’s recommendations. As I got involved around autumn, I’d not had the same cheaper entry points that the “first recommended” dates provided. Even so, I was happily looking at a good 11% gain on the total…..until Black January 19th, when Obama’s bank-bashing, combined with the Chinese credit pullback, plus the Bernanke challenges, and now all gains are wiped out, as of Friday 1/29’s close, and over $1,100 of the principal’s gone too! Oil looks to be tanking lower, along with other commodities, too. Verrrry depressing. 5 stops at minus 10% have sold off, auto-style, as well.
A very good lesson as to how a bit of politics and credit control can wipe out all your gains in just a week and a half!!
I’ve got plenty of faith in this strategy working decently when (and if) the dollar goes back down, and when prices of gold, oil, and Chinese demand on oil and copper return. Ten days of this ruination is not encouraging, though.
One thing sure: If the market (and our positions) roll over just a tiny bit more to stop me out a lot more, the bleeding will be much worse, God forbid.
Load up on gold? Last thing on my mind in this mess! I really wish I’d waited until now to buy it, instead of at $1,130.
Hope Monday’s not the coup-de-grace!
Gold is going up because of new industrial use.
Can’t Paste Photo but
So, it seems that this “global recession” has not impacted negatively on everyone.
Check this out!
It’s a Mercedes Benz owned by an Abu Dhabi oil billionaire (naturally).
Featuring the newly developed V10 quad turbo with 1,600 horsepower and 2800nm of torque
0-100km/h in less than 2secs, 1/4 mile in 6.89 secs running on biofuel.
That is NOT a stainless steel body, people, it is WHITE GOLD!
Back in October, I moved a large chunk of my investment money from short term cash to gold and silver. For awhile it looked like good timing, but in the past two weeks, I’ve been less ebullient. Still, I think that in the longer term, inflation will increase, and commodities will bounce back. I’ll sit on my position for now, but watch it daily. If the dollar looks like it will continue to trend up, then I’ll consider cutting my losses.
Gentlemen, you bet I’m buying quality gold stocks right now (and options) and precious metals index funds. Buying a bit more each week as I can afford, but not getting overly excited. Am putting in lower limit orders and most are getting filled. I don’t buy on margin though!
It is getting close to the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals. I have less than 5% in these currently and plan to add once a turn-a-round takes place in the charts. Waiting for clear signals and then plan to build up reaching 15-20% when fully invested. Currently I have about equal weight in each metal, but, may eventually have more weight in Platinum and Palladium.
10% of portfolio in GLD; 5% in metal
I believe monetary inflation will morph into price inflation sometime this year. Commodities will have a winning year in my opinion but we may have some rough spots before this plays out.
Hi Larry, I have two accts.. One is almost all Gold & Combination Metal Mines which I have been holding for quit some time and bought low. It is lossing but not as bad as my IRA which is holding a lot of Gold, Silver, Energy, Oil and Gas , Asian commodities, water, food,education, technology stocks. A lot of Options which I am praying will soon come UP. I currently have no more finances to invest. I don’t know what to sell. I also have two mutual funds which are going no where. PLEASE HELP, Getting FRUSTRATED.
I am dirt old and thats where my investments are, mostly in the dirt. I am watching for your advice Larry and believe in your news letters very much. About 50% of my investment portfolio is in gold, gold related and silver, another 25% in oil and the balance in china, india, brazil and good dividend companies..
palladium is what i think will fly
I believe silver may do slightly better than gold, however both should show above average gains in the forseeable future. I have IAU an EFT gold fund and silver medals in pure silver coins.
Wait til gold & silver stop falling in price and then buy more.
I am investing 6% directly in GLD plus some in gold stocks; plus 10% in SLV. This may be a little high but I am sure the value of the dollar will decrease over time.
Two weeks down in a row with the gold mining issues as the hedge funds do their ratio thing and sell the stocks while holding some gold……….now it is time to reverse and they are buying the stocks……it happens time and time again………we just have to get used to it……..when you feel like puking up your mining shares, like now, it is time to buy again………..I like RBY, MVG, TRE, GRS, NSU and similar issues……many have declined near their 200 day m.a. where the institutions will come in and start positioning again……….so I am adding to my positions now.
Larry, I think I will wait to see if this correction goes lower. If it does I will definitely load up on gold and silver. There is one area I would like you to investigate though. I keep hearing about rare earth minerals like Iridium that are necessary for all modern electronics. If this is so, how do we get into this area. I really think this might be an important investment for the future.
Thanks
Long term Gold, Silver and especially Platinum will outperform as an asset class but not in the short term. Several reasons why. 1) The US dollar will surprise everyone in 2010 and actually strengthen much more than expected (Why? because it is technically oversold AND other currencies are in trouble more than the dollar. Not to mention that a falling stock market will help support the dollar). 2) A falling stock market will make risk asset classes less attractive causing people to sell 3) There is no inflation to worry about near term so this will not support Gold. 4) Gold is an over crowded trade and there will be plenty of sellers once the shine fades (when no one is pushing to buy gold, that will be the time to buy it). Gold has been falling in the last two months but it is not done falling.
Gold trades in cycles making a new high and an interim low. June or July 2010 is the likely time to be looking at gold again to determine if the shine has faded.
I own GLD, SLV and the Tocqueville Gold fund. I believe that gold and silver will rise, but I am waiting for a pullback before I add to my holdings. I still feel very confident about the long term potential for these precious metals.
I have–gold,silver,platinium,rare stamps,some antiques . do this only if all debts are nil,that includes owing your own home/vechicle’s. would never advise anyone to invest unless they can afford to.
se3lling gold buying sliver waiting tobuy around end feb 1 march
I started accumulating precious metals (physical, ETFs and mining stocks) about eight years ago. They represent 55% of the value of my portfolio. I tend to favor gold but also own some silver and platinum. I usually hold lots of cash for when there is a correction - like now. I think it’s time to buy a few more gold maple leaves and gold eagles.
I Plan to buy more gold & silver after they drop further.
waiting for the 2nd crash, which should pull gold/silver prices down with it and will buy more physical assets
Hi Larry,
I think that if you are accumulating for the long term you could average into PM stocks and the metals at current prices. I do think that the precious metals will go lower from here and possibly test $1000 or even $950,however, that would be the extent of the downside( a hell of a buying opportunity there) and would give the dollar rally time to burn itself out. The dollar rally is happening because for the moment the dollar is the best of the worst until it isnt…this rally does not have real legs. It is rallying as the bullish percentage on the dollar was the inverse of gold’s at the low it was 3% bulls and now it seems at least everywhere I read that the trade is long dollar short gold…and I mean it is everywhere and everyone and their borther\sister is doing that trade now, while the vast majority of the public is in treasuries(the next bubble to burst ). I do think we are closer to a bottom than a top in the precious metals at this point for a variety of factors: 1) the media coverage of the precious metals has fallen off the radar, 2) the $BPGDM (S&P bullish percentage precious metals) has reached a level at which bottoms tend to form(this is not to say it cant’t go lower but the downside is far less than before) and it has come all the way down from an extreme bullish reading(80+) to a very bearish reading(22 today)(which is bullish for PMs). 3) Helicopter Ben will not be able to raise rates if the economy is tanking and will be forced to choose between softening the blow(with rates near zero it will have to be some creative quantitative easing) or defending the dollar.(It is allso possible that the dollar rally is being engineered right now so they can quantitatively ease with out raising rates and allow the dollar to fall back down towards the 70ish floor)..Me thinks based upon past action and the fact that it is an election year Ol’ Ben will try to save the economy…they won’t cal it quantitative easing but it will be something creative like that to pump up the money supply rather than kill the economy by raising rates to defend the dollar 4) The dollar has rallied along with gold in the last decade so that is possible. 5) PM stocks rallied during the meltdown in 2001 so that too is possible now. 6) Obama and his spending freeze don’t even go in effect until next year and even then it won’t be a true freeze he and his team can’t help but spend on the great society 7) China, the BRIC countries and others will continue to accumulate gold as they can see what is happening. 6) China whose managed economy is being slowed will be slowed to a more moderate growth rate and demand for gold and other commodities will continue to increase. 7) the mining output for gold and silver will be down again(yes 2009 there was a slight uptick in the gold production figures but this was an anomoly) while demand will continue to increase.
So yes I do own gold and silver and am looking to add more along with other opportunities in other sectors like energy(geothermal, energy trusts etc..), water(companies, technology and infrastructure), Some Technology, agriculture\food ,things people will need not just want. I have been scaling in a little here and there but over time…it is a PM bull market after all and even wrong entry points will be corrected over time and it is far more prudent to buy at these levels and lower than at $1200, but patience is required. TO paraphrase three famous market players 1) Richard Russell - tHe bull market will try to throw off as many investors as it can in the way to its ultimate peak 2) Be right and sit tight - Jesse Livermore. 3) buy when every one is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy (seems like the entire gold community is fearing a collapse) - Warren Buffet
I currently have plenty dry powder looking to deploy but I also hold core positions in AUY, EGO, SSRI, KGC, AEM, KBX MFN, GG, SLW from much lower levels, I also own physical bullion gold in Krugerands and PAMP 1 0z bars along with a bunch Silver rounds and a bunch of Junk silver, I also have both gold and silver in allocated vaults in Switzerland and a large position in CEF. I do not trust the government any more and have chosen to allocate some of my precious metals to be on hand for disaster purposes and I have been moving money and PMs out of the country to safe havens where Uncle Sam cant just take it by eminent domain. CEF is housed in Canada and Swiss allocated accounts are obviously outside the US. I am doing this now as there will come a time where capital controls will be imposed and I want to have options. Larry I don’t understand why you would recommend GLD as a proxy for PMs as a) it is paper gold and b) if things got real bad the US government would look around for gold like they did in the 30s and today the fourth largest reserve of gold in the world is in GLD and I would not put it past Obama, Geithner, Bernanke or Summers (the four horsemen of the apocolypse) to look at all that gold and just annex it rather then seek out the little investors that would be reserved for the second wave later.
Enough for now…..
Hi Larry-
I am probably over weighted in gold and silver and despite the swings in there value, it is one of only a couple of places that I feel comfortable. It is my belief that the markets have been so overmanipulated and that trust has hit such a low level amoung some of wall streets top people that as reality sets in among the average citizen it may be to late to act. Remember you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
LARRY,
I WOULD RECOMMEND GOLD FIRST,AND SILVER NEXT.
The opportune time to add to gold positions, in my opinion, is right now! For all of the stimulus the FED has implemented over the past 2 years it is clear that it is not working. Home values and volume continue to decrease, unemployment is still rising, and banks are still in recoil mode (even after the FASB changed the accounting rules). Perhaps the biggest “tipping point” indicater we can expect to see over the next 2 years which will cause gold to increase in value will be when the FED, State, and local governments start laying off thousands of workers due to funding shortfalls caused by a spike in interest rates and dwindling tax receipts. It will be at that point that we can all say that we are witnessing “change we can believe in” as our government will have no other choice. Maybe it will be then that the American people will realize that accountability of our elected leaders is more important than the next American Idol winner and we can get all of the “teenagers” out of office. The party today, don’t worry about tomorrow mentality has to stop at some point….
Larry,
Today I took your advice and withdrew my money out of E.J.Investment and closed my Mutual Funds Portfolio. I lost 45% right after I deposited funds a year ago, and waited until now , to break even. Am glad I did because the market is descending once again. Now my focus is on precious metals. Where to shop is my next research assignment. The overall consencious that I read from your fan mail is that SILVER will triple its value in 3 yrs or less. And that Gold is questionable to the majority here on your web page.
Larry,
Today I took your advice and withdrew my money out of E.J.Investment and closed my Mutual Funds Portfolio. I lost 45% right after I deposited funds a year ago, and waited until now , to break even. Am glad I did because the market is descending once again. Now my focus is on precious metals. Where to shop is my next research assignment. The overall consensus that I read from your fan mail is that SILVER will triple its value in 3 yrs or less. And that Gold is questionable to the majority here on your web page.
Re Treasuries: if the global economy re-sours along the lines of Greece specifically, and europe generally, and the wealth of the world seeks safe haven, it would appear that the only vehicle big enough and liquid enough to climb aboard would be the dollar. Sure, gold would rise, but there isn’t enough to go around.
Honestly, I could give squat about these posts. I don’t care what other people are doing. I want to know what the Weiss team thinks is the best strategy right now, this week, this day, certainly this month. They are supposed to have this comprehensive cyclical knowledge that they gained from merging with the Institute on Cyclical Studies. Well, according to your data, what comes next? Ultimately, that is what we all want to know. To hell with what other people are doing.
I don’t have cash nor income producing investments. Gold and silver are my currency, and I just sell a bar or some shares when I need some cash.
I have one third of my portfolio in silver and gold bars and a general commodity fund, one third in precious metal stocks and one third in other shares, mainly China and the Far East. You probably think this is crazy but this reflects my view of the way things are (not good)- would welcome your comments.
My first choice is SILVER; second is PLATINUM and third is GOLD.
I would be a buyer for SILVER and PLATINUM at current prices.
I would also be a buyer for GOLD @ US$ 1050 approx (that is
the price, if I remember correctly when India had purchased
200 tons of GOLD in the latter half of 2009).
Greatly appreciate your coverage of gold and silver. I am looking for leverage in these. Do calls seem like a reasonable speculation to you?
Many thanks. H. Colfer.
Greatly appreciate your coverage of gold and silver. I am looking for leverage in these. Do calls seem like a reasonable speculation to you? Many thanks. Harry Colfer.
I feel a need to diversify (not have everything in one basket). I have precious metals (bullion and stocks), commodities, some tech (biotech, etc), energy, and CASH. I also want something that pays regular income so I own 8 MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships) that pay very well. Per Barron’s, MLPs outpaced everything in the 2000-2010 decade with total return of 18% (gold was second at 15%). Their distributions are also 80-100% tax free. They are the municipal bonds of energy. Example: I bought Linn Energy (LINE)at $16.40 and it pays annual distributions of $2.52–a 15.3% return. For 2009 100% of their distributions were a “return of capital” (essentially they were 100% tax free). If I’m in the 25% tax bracket that is equivalent to over 19% return. They had all their production hedged for 3 years so the distributions are pretty safe. After this week’s selloff the stock is priced about $26. The bottom line: Absent capital gains I’m locked in to a 15.3% return (or maybe 19%). If you bought LINE today you can still earn about 9.7%. Other MLPs also pay well and some have increased their distribution every quarter for 6-8 years. I’ll be buying good MLPs with both hands on dips.
I do have very few dividend payers–, although I realise I should, but I believe we are on the threshold
of an exceptional time in the worlds history, the CEO of BHP Billiton has said so a few months ago as have HSBC chairman and your own Jim Rogers. We are in an unpresidented Global growth period that as Rogers say’s could last decades. This is not just Like the US before the First World War.
It is that X 4 or 5 — So we need to be invested in hard assets, Stuff, that the whole of the planet will be Clamering for. Large miners , global players, international companies, and some juniors with hot
prospects, pull backs are buying opportunities, because although they are gut wrenching as we see our portfolio’s loose money, they are necassary, and opportunities are presented ?
1) Silver? — No longer just a semi-precious metal, but an industrial consumable. Difficult to recycle very much of that which is used. Numerous uses being discovered daily such as nano-tech etc. Will find much demand in medical apps as it is learned that it will cure numerous diseases including both bacterial and viruses, and as a water purifier for the 2 billion people without fresh water. Mine-able amounts are largely in the earth’s crust and will be exhausted within the next generation or two. Load up the truck for long term hold and then forget about it until it’s value exceeds it’s more abundant cousin: gold. Silver is the ultimate poor man’s gold, but because it is so cheap it presently requires larger areas for secure storage. Ultra wealthy investors such as Buffet are long sizable amounts . Superior economic elasticity since tiny amounts are required per application. Silver will continue to be used even if price explodes as it’s ultimate application will only increase by a few cents. Low cost entry for nearly anyone wanting to invest.
2) Palladium? — Demand will pick up as more and more astute investors realize that it (and small amounts of Rhodium) will eventually replace platinum in catalytic converters. This will work until cars are converted to other forms of energy. Reference 2009 annual report of STILLWATER MNG CO (SWC) .
Gold? — The real money of the world though it is largely recycled and stored rather than consumed; Nearly all of the gold ever mined is still around and currently is better for storing larger values of investment in smaller areas.
Platinum? — To me a rich man’s game and somewhat speculative; consider buying if it’s price is commensurate with gold or maybe slightly higher due to scarcity.
Other technological applications are bound to crop up for these and other precious, strategic, and rare earth elements so individually or even as a group they make good sense.
silver, because (1) it is being used and not hoarded like gold; (2) it is undervalued compared to gold based on historical ratios of gold to silver prices and (3) pyschologicaally as gold becomes expensive per ounce the silver price seems more “buyable”. Silver breaking 80 is not unreasonable.
We have had a good pullback in the metals. We have completed the third leg down on the charts on gold and silver and now is a good time to add more ETF’s. May not be the bottom for now, but has to be close. I favor AGQ silver as an ETF. I am already into gold and silver ETF’s at the 20% level in my portfolio. I know these are underwater somewhat in my portfolio at the current prices, but my intent was for the longer term this year.
Thanks for the soap box. Pay no attention to those GOLD commercials…(why do they need to advertise it)…Silver has much more room for growth. It has other enticing factors, Indusrial use, Historically used as money, Physical silver bullion,art rounds 90% US coins, Silver Eagles could come in handy post TEOTWAWKI. I started buying silver at $11.00 and still am on the dips. Nothing goes straight up! Loren Rogers
i buy silver & copper coins period. this is my investment for retirement & the iminent deep depression coming to the us. soft money never lasts in any economy. hard money does. check out history. the us has begun a process that will ultimately lead to national insolvency. thanks and pray for revival in america. its our only hope jim
I am a senior. I believe silver will out shine gold, but purchasing and owning physical silver at $0.16 an ounce would require an enormous inventory of the metal. Instead, I prefer gold which does not require as much resources. I own coins. The chart looks good for additional purchases.
I load up both on gold and silver — physical product only — but mostly silver. I don’t buy ingots or bars, but government-minted coins like American Eagles, 1-ounce and fractionals. In times of barter and emergency, such coins are most easily trusted by the general populace. I am a survivalist, and don’t trust paper and digital investments to get me through the meltdown that is coming. Though I have a little gold, the American government’s history of outlawing ownership of gold bullion and gold hoarding (from beloved FDR, no less) is enough warning to push me into silver.
Absolutly !
Over the last 10 years gold silver and the pgms have brought me out of the depths of hell from the dot bomb era.
Some people recommend diversification! I am diversivied only to the extent that besides metals I invest in energies also, and I don’t much care from where in the world that they come from except the marxist comunist countries. I do prefer canadian or american companies the best though. Also I am over weight in the Producers, with a few speculative explorers and those companies that are soon to become producers.
Favorite Silvers: SLW SSRI HL MFN in that order.
Favorite Golds : GG AUY SGRCF EGO NGD JAG XRA
Favorite PGMs: PAL SWC PLM
Uraniums : DNN JNRRF SXRZF
Favorite Coal: ACI AENY
Favorite Gas: BEXP CHK
Favorite Power: APWR
Favorite Lottery Ticket: GSPG
This is without a doubt the opportunity of a lifetime to back up thr truck and load up with all commodities right now as the bearish sentiment is sooo high and thus bullish sentiment soooo low. Ther`s blood in the streets now coupled with loads of fear. Take advantage of it as it will pass quickly leaving loads of people behind.
What do you think of RTP’s potential upside.
1. I have some US stocks which were bought many years ago. Their values had gone down a lot. It is too late to sell them now. I keep them. But I don’t plan to buy anymore US stocks until US economy has regained the footing.
2. I continue to buy Chinese stocks that are available in US. Their values have gone down recently. But I think they will come back soon.
3. I am retired, so I keep some cash in government bonds for rainy days.
I think as you, Precious Metals are in a bull market! I vest in Gold 50%, Silver 20%, Platinum & Pladium 20% and of all other basic industrial metals 10%…..making 20-25% of my total investment portfolio. Larry, are these levels, roughly, in the “correct per-centages?”
My best, Phil
Silver, silver and silver….physical possession, only.
Larry,
I intend to buy physical silver and gold sovereigns on a i-2 per month basis starting this month. I used to collect double eagles but debt forced me to liquidate my yholdings in the range of $270 gold. Oh well! Any suggestions on where to purchase?
Ed Kernish
30% Physical Gold Bars
60% Physical Silver Bars
10% food and power needs, perhaps invest in growing a garden.
Always have 3 months money on you to cover costs.
Get out of anything paper.
Closing out all IRA’s in cash. Buying hard assets, property, farm ground. I like silver the most, it’s in my price range.
Larry: The first thing I do every morning in my computer is go to your blogs and pay very close attention to what you have to say about gold and silver.
From your statements I act accordingly. 15% of my retirement is in gold and 15% on silver and I am siting on both until you tell us when to sell.
Ps. thank you for your advise.
Oscar G.
Larry
Silver…what happen $1850 to $1620 in Jan?
12-13%%……….Should my gran kids be worried?
i love silver, but also have gold and palladium. i wish i knew when the bottom was going to be in
so i could load up on more silver. i read an article that someday there would not be enough
silver for the mint to make silver eagles but i don’t believe that.
Never load up, but definitely feel that on an inflation adjusted price, the Precious metals have a long way to. By the end of May we will see $1300 gold and $19.00 silver
Am currently 15% cash, 55% China (domestic-not export related ) and 30% gold miing. Taking a beating on China stocks and intend to unload some if they continue downtrend. Intend to load up on more gold mining stocks next week…
I´m a buyer of gold and silver ,waiting for more of a downside in both…waiting for 945/970 in gold and 15/15.50 silver and eventually it will cath up gold.Let´s not forget silver is way behind on gold/silver ratio…buying a 2 contracts at 16.50 and waiting for more downside to get with both feet in both..
I started buying gold at $340 and silver around the 4.50/5.00
Regards from Costa Rica
(1) Silver (2) Platinum (3) Gold is my choice.
as you noticed when our markets go down so do all the other markets so if you think usa will not do good why would the other markets go up . what are some of the etfs that you think would do better.Even gold and silver has gone down . So what would make a divergence in the stocks that would make your stocks go up as the stocks in the usa go down?
thanks
Personally I like Master Limited Partnerships for income. Once the pipeline is completed it is like a Toll Bridge and no longer capital intensive and with tax advantages as well. Also so long as the Fed keeps interest rates low, government backed mortgages pay fat dividends as well e.g. NLY and HTTS.
The Inverse ETF’s don’t seem to work.
Can we short the regular ETFs?
Bought in nov.09 the following realizing everybody sale at that period for income.
20% U.S stock like appl.. at 190. up to 214. and now down at 191..
30% China up 15% and now down 10%
10% India up 10%
20% gold 10% silver down 10%
10% gold mine barrick down 12%
If y live that money place to nov 2010 will have to pay taxes on surely 25%gains
since I don’t need the money it could stay there for 5 years.
I don’t have time to buy and sale once a month.
What do you think is the best move?? Difficult for a bigginer
I for one am a currency trader,and rely mostly on charts ,past and future world economic outlooks for the Major countries.What I see in 2010 ,starting around mid march is the perfect storm created by the last 20 years of capitalism.Without getting into too much detail ,oil……down would you believe $35 or less a barrel? Gold …$700 per ounce. Dow 3400? ,as far as currency pairs ,gbp/usd,eur/usd,aud/usd ..all down..alot from todays exchange price…..Im putting my money ,long USD/CHF….
The dow last week broke out of the major uptrend another signal to validate the perfect storm…
Now we all know alot of central banking manipulation has been in the market since the crash of 2008,I believe they will try again but nature will have to take it course……The bottom line? The dollar has been at record lows,and is starting to l break out already.., so do dont invest in the stock market,Gold or oil unless your shorting … invest in the dollar itself in any way you choose in 2010….
Larry: with the recent strengthening of the dollar and the possibility that other weaker economies will seek safrtey in the dollar is there a mid to long term risk to the value of gold and gold mining stocks.?
Looks like I will be getting started with a portifolio before long. I will be looking to investing with Asian stocks of merit, Mlp’s, and ETF’s linked with silver mining (perhaps) and/or companies using silver in technology. I want to see growth and will look for those natural resources with expectancies of routine dividends on a yearly basis etc. Although, gold looks pretty good but think it will drop some more. My funds will be somewhat limited this year, but see the light at the end of the tunnel for next year. Thanks for all your help with all your team’s insights.
I currently own silver and palladium and feel as though both of these metals have a great deal of upward potential. It’s become apparent to me that there is a great deal of price manipulation at least in the silver market. The current supply and demand figures would indicate that silver should be much higher than it currently is. I believe that it is artificially being held down.
I am going for silver in the long haul!
My computer just got flown to Texas for repair or replacement so I’m using the “boss’” computer.
I recently got information from a top executive from one of the top three banks in the US. The commercial real estate bubble will break by the end of March 2010 because there were more of these people, than ever before, in the situation of not having enough assets to warrent refinancing, paying off the principal or even the interest due!. When I ask an investment banker, who had just gotten back from NYC, what he thought of this and he said he was 100% in agreement and that the credit card bubble would break in the same time frame. Since Ginny Mae, Freddie Mack and FDIC are all bankrupt, the US dollar is going down, the interest rate going up and the elected idiots keep on printing fiat currency, we will probably have a meltdown in our whole financial system like never before in history. When the government gets done rigging the figures, which just delays and makes things worse and prolongs the inevible, it will make last the pull back in the stock during September look like a picknic! The government shortly will take the money in 401K/IRAs and replace it with a 3% annuity and then when the prime rate goes up guess who will benefit! The money the government gets when they cut Medicare payouts 1 March 2010 is to be spent wisely too, upgrading the communication systems of our Congress! The only sound investment, that also has very good growth potential, is precious metal. I like silver Eagles, silver Mapel Leaf and silver Philharmonics expecially.. The historic ration between gold and silver is 20 t0 1 and now it is about 65 to 1, This will have to get in line shortly. Only buy the shinny stuff in one ounce bullion coins or larger bars and be sure to take delivery and not hold someones “backed” paper certificates which possible could be not honored in time of problems. Your financial advisor will most likely advise you to only have about 10% of you liquid assets invested in this way if he even would approve and mainly because this ties up money he cannot make commission on. I know what I am talking about having been an investment broker for about 30 plus years! Keep enough cash to cover bills with and then deposit it in the checking account as needed. CDs, savings accounts and most any other paper investments are not really safe in the present economic envioument and this is not going to change for the better any time soon!
Barring any major events I think the dollar will get stronger especially if our government finally after decades of inaction on energy starts drilling for oil here. That should improve our trade deficits and reduce borrowing. Gold and silver will continue down I think the inverse of the dollar. However I think I will buy more gold and silver in equal dollar amounts but silver will gain more percentagewise. I’m looking for gold under $1000.
I got out of all treasuries. They have to keep interest rates low otherwise they could default on the interest or just print more dollars. That leads to a bust.
I got out of most foreign currencies too for now. The problem with those is that they all are debasing their currencies and the dollar chart merely shows the dollar being devalued faster or slower than the basket. But they all are going down. That means commodities is the place to be. So I have bought oil, some with high dividends.
hallo i’m in italy and i own some phisical gold(wish to have bought more in the past) (no phisical siver bullion market in Italy) plus some gold and silver (my favorite)stocks (in tot more or less 15% of my invest);
i’m really really worried that the big banks will be able to create a sell off in the market to cover their shorts ; so for me no , is not time yet to load up….i just hope the drop will not be too severe to trigger all my stops…and be brave and lucky enough to buy more close to the bottom
i’m not planning to sell now …but because of the market’s manipulation i’m not buying more (and i wish to )
i plan to sell my gold as soon as it goes up. I have alot of ‘GLD’ . not happy about the tax implications for the commodity etf’s.
Our investments going forward from this moment are in junior gold, uranium and preferred stock of utilities. The story doesn’t end there– during the 1980s tenure of Paul Volckere we invested in preferred stock with par value of $100 and $4.50 annual dividend at $35 per share. The company has never missed quarterly dividend payment and we have added to the position which now sells for $76. We also purchased preferred stock in Bethlehem steel and another utility, both ending in bankruptcy. Gold had low of approx 855 to hi of approx 1155 in 2009, a very nice gain but currently consolidating. Will continue to reduce position in gold next week on further weakness
with plans to reenter based on world economic and market conditions. Majority of funds are in short term treasuries..
sean broderick is right , gold is going to 945 or so. you could probably buy at around 980, look at the chart. slv at decent price here. may go down to between 14.28 to 12.31 range , but i would expect only a drop to the 14 area.
i believe going forward tony sagami’s advice will probably be the best , bieing that he covers the only economies that will show real growth. everyting cycles and the us now needs to step aside and give the stage to china and india and brazil. oh well, don’t take it personally. that is the way it goes.
For a novice, how do I invest in Silver? Thank you in advance. ddoll3
Dear Larry: Yes I am a follower of your charts and I think it’s time to load up on gold in particular, in particular as gold is the only viable currency that can not be manipulated. History has proved that over and over. Maybe I loaded up to soon considering the current reversal and the uptick of the US$ but I’m in it for the long haul. I got about 80% in gold mutuals and stocks, with about 10% in oil and 10% other. THXS for your regular updates.
During the last drop in gold prices my dad and I purchsed 100 1oz coins of various countries (in case one was considered debased)in a price range of $285 to 350 each during. We also purchased 5,000 US silver dollars of no numismatic value. We hold physical possession of these.
During the past five years I have personally invested in the junior gold and rare earth miners and larger miners in specific commodities such as copper, silver, gold, platinum and uranium with excellent results. These core holdings are long term. For short term holdings the futures markets have been profitable for short term trends both long and short.
Buying the commodities metals takes patience.You have taught us well over the years.I own 50 percent of my portfolio in Gold ,Silver and Copper.Waiting to see if gold holds above 1070 to add to positions.I think SILVER AT $14 would be time to add also.With the Dollar seemingly out of wack,I pray for PATIENCE.
If investors lack recognition of the global Paradigm shift AWAY from our current Keynesian system,
you remain unaware of the beginning of the end of quantitative abstraction of VALUE. Von Mises declared there is NO WAY to avoid the coming “Crack up boom”. All those who still adhere to net worth
based in heretical fiat are unprepared. The end of quantitative abstraction of value is THE reason REAL physical PM has survived the millennia of fiat experimentation. Be aware that those who are currently benefitting from this Keynesian nightmare have no intention of voluntarily relinquishing control. LONG physical PM.
I am in Gold & Silver miners for the . long term ..2 to three years .Do not know much about Palladium or Platinum.. maybe you can make some suggestions for me short long term .I’m a member of Real Wealth Report and look forward to your reco’s ..
Thank you
Howard
I have physical Silver in my portfolio!! Already doubled in 2 years. wish I had listened to my “gut” & bought more when it was at $5.00. but I’ll keep buying because it is has so much potential. As a “middle class Family man” I can afford 10oz -20oz every month. to hedge against inflation!
Income investments at this time are Corp Bonds for 2010 and 2011 maturities in Ford(3) , Goodyear , Williams Energy. With 7% plus coupon will probably hold since maturities are 2010 and 2011. All have capital gains..and may lose those as market turns down. A trade-off.
Just sold Sunocor , Chesapeake , M & I and Genworth. Expect large capital gains losses in bonds this year. Otherwise would have held these bonds. C.G.’s were 5% to 23%.
No stocks owned. Expect global market downturn for 2010 ..by March , based on cycles. Double dip recession.
Expect bonds to crater also.
Oil will falter and retest $40 as market turns down.
The Head and Shoulders pattern just completed for Gold (GDX), suggests a 6- month down cycle , similiar to the 2007/2008 cycle. That suggests gold below $950 and silver around $12. That will be the time to buy …not now.
Good short sales opportunities exist for precious metals ,with proper Weiss guidance. All metals will be a good buy later in 2010…probably August timeframe. Copper , Platinum , Palladium, Silver , and gold buys , in that order. Need good vehicles for the copper (PCU ?) , platinum ( ?), and palladium (?).. Seems that mutual funds are only options and fees are too high for trading.
Summary: Tough income year. Poor metals return thru August , Even oil will go below $70 if market craters as expected …down to $40.
Short sales are only profit option for next 6 months. Everything else is HIGH RIsk.
I plan on holding 40% in cash, and 20% in qid, the rest in
China and Brazil. Stocks such as yum, tck, pwe, bp, and amln, swc, pwe, and ewz . Since these stocks are in my IRA accounts, I sell anytime I can obtain a 6% prrofit and then look to buy the stock back some 9% lower and do it again. I also sell covered calls against some one third of my holdings if I can achieve a 8% return for say 60 days. Over all I usually average around 23% yearly
return. Right now it does not pay to invest just to make some money weekly. There are no decisions out of our government that will help business or encourage sustainable growth. Although reinstating the glass-steagal act is a good move any further over regulation hinders the recovery. As does passing Obama-care with all of the hidden taxes. The same is true of ‘Cap and tax’.
I do not see real new growth as sustainable until we get a good foundation under the economy .
That foundation needs to come from paying down bills, saving and investing and living within our means. That applies accross the board to individuals, towns, states and our Federal Goverment.
Just heard that currency swaps from the US Government are being phased out this month and this could put some fuel under a rise in the dollar. That would put downward pressure on Gold for an undetermined time interval. I am beginning to wonder if government game playing can throw too much variability into gold and silver investments making them very tough to play. I understand that our printing presses are offering long term likely strength for Gold but when? And for how long?
I prefer silver due to the industrial/monetary linkage.
I invest to good dividend paying stocks. Like with dividends over 9% min.
Lately they are rare, but stil exist. Some up to 15%.
1. If you dont believe the “banksters” OWN our Govt.(they do).
2. If you dont believe the CONGRESS(conmen) represent “special interests”, than PUBLIC.(they do).
3. If you dont believe the US GOVT is “bankrupt”.(we are).
4. If you dont believe an “official” US DOLLAR devaluation is coming.(it is).
5. If you dont know that the US FEDERAL RESERVE is a private “bank cartel” OWNED BY OTHERS(it is).6. If you cant understand why you lost your job and your house(20% of US WORKERS).(you did).
…………………………THEN DONT BUY GOLD&SILVER……….DIG A HOLE AND JUMP IN.
From the looks of all those blogs, the whole world of gold and silver investors must be loaded, or soon will be. Who are going to be the buyers when this happens?
I only joined Real Wealth in late Sept of 09 so my gold holdings are all at high (110 to 119) prices. That makes for a lot of unrealized losses. When I was doing all that buying it seems most of your (larry) loud shouts were how high gold was soaring and going to $2000, maybe $5000. Now, it is difficult to believe that more should be bought. I might only add more grief to the situation.
I plan to slowly continue acquiring physical silver as the price drops. Dollar cost-averaging is the plan. The market and commodities correction could be massive - crashing below last years lows by late spring. Or, it might turn around very soon… I’m leaning more towards the former scenario based upon the relentless increase in unemployment and the increasing rate of bank failures.
Another market collapse may extend the life of the dollar for awhile longer, but it seems destined to eventually take its place alongside all of the other defunct fiat currencies of the world.
I am more invested in gold, oil, and alternate energy (wind turbines, not the stand alone windmills). I am considering SILV..
There will obviously be a bounce shorty once the market corrects but be careful as it will be short term only as we are in a consolidation period.
Please note for the longer term outlook, gold historically reaches a new high climax every 23 months as it did in early Dec. 09 with a sell off & 6 month consolidatation period before ramping back up again. I believe that June will be a good time to re-enter gold long term and avoid being whipsawed over the next few months.
I’m of two minds. First because of the oulandish spending that the Obama adminis bringing to pass- I have always thought gold, silver, et al are the way to beat the inevitable hyper inflation. But, the Fed is monetizing the debt, and an aticle on ” Money and Matters ” said debt swaps were coming to an end, which should help the dollar. Go figure.
With the U S currency printing presses still running full throttle, inflation seems inevitble. If that observation of cause and effect is correct, accumulating precious metals is irrefutable. By the end of 2010, at least 35% of one’s assets might well be in silver and/or gold.
Jerry R
Larry…After Bush invaded Iraq, I waited to see how the invasion went. Being part of the invasion force of france in ww2, I expected bush would get something similar. in january 2004 i put 1/3 of my assets in gold coins. i thought my family was going to kill me. o well, my investment may work out yet…..Bud
LARRY…..I also bought afew bags of silver and some of those green boxes. Bud
I have about a half of my portfolio in commodities. The balance of it is in currencies, energy and short stocks.
i have been a collector of gold+silver(cant afford platinum) for 20 years. having said that i obviously have lots of silver(elcheapo) not much gold-no platinum. so it seams since i have lots of silver bought from 3.50 ounce to 8.00 i am in a good position. at this writing silver is 16.20 ish and will not move any lower so i will buy–it is down from 19.00(6%) silver may be the best buy at this moment as it is not in abundance and is used widespread in industry. collectors like it as well(coins) so i likey! i am small holder–under 1000 ounces silver but any savings i have will now go for silver coins(cheapo) as this is the commodity that is ready for advances.buy and hold, as silver is an easy trade for (as compared to the dollars)–people will not worry about trading goods for silver, where-as paper curency might be lower on the totem pole of acceptable items.
i am ok short term commodity stocks, but sooner than later they must be changed into hard assets for barter–when dollar goes so low it will hurt.
From funds not needed for income
investment in gold stock and gold fund 5% presently no silver 5% in platinum and palladium otherwise energy commodities and especially Canadian Limited Partnerships
Hey, I have been a buyer up to 90% of my portfolio since 2001 . Controlling 12000 ounces of the poor mans gold from 4.50 to 13.00 dollars an ounce. Dammit , how long before the real windfall.
I am really sick and tired of the LIARS and the THIEVES in all these finacial businesses especially this silver manipulation going on with OUR GOVERNMEVNT and MORGAN STANLEY. Our own GOV in bed with the monopolies that they created. What goes around will come around!!!!!!.
When it is finally doing what is natural for supply and demand , SILVER will average better than 100-130 dollars per ounce and I see bounces as far up as $300 - $500 and back to $130. Am I crazy or are all the fundamentals pointing in that direction. The only thing that would keep that from happenning is a complete world meltdown and Anarchy or maybe that is what it will take?????? Either way , I CANNOT WAIT ANY LONGER !!!!!!ARRRGHHH!!!G .C.
Hi, Larry. I am quite bullish on silver.
When gold hits 1010, I’m doubling my investment.
Since I’m just a little guy (tiny really), I invest in silver metal a little at a time as budget allows. I’d love to do gold/platinum but I don’t have the cash flow for that. When paper takes a dump, metal will return as currency. In the coming years I see commodities as the only real way to realize steady yields. Everything else is a nice-to-have, and there’s no guarantee the world can afford these.
I would load up entirely on gold and silver, in all the ways possible, but I see that, historically, there have been too many instances in which various powers have thought to confiscate such wealth. Whether one stores in the US or abroad, the AUTHORITIES are scheming to get it from us anyway,… or to make holding it too expensive, illegal or whatnot. So other strategies have to be devised.
Some of us may have resources, which are not available to others, simply because one has to know how to get there. It is not adviseable to specify what these other resources might be, because we are all different and have had different life stories. In general, diversity, an agile willingness to change with the times and a healthy bit of paranoia are essential for survival.
There are markets for some commodities that may have a bright future. But those markets don’t last forever. One has to follow them all the time. What is ominous is that the US government is getting larger all the time, that is, it is being given more powers than is healthy or right. But it is not a solution for everyone to go find a “hole in the ground” where government can’t find you. Many of us need to participate in the government, because life may not be sustainable, if we let all the bad guys dominate the scene. That leads Americans back to their roots in the 18th cdentury. Participating in Civilization is a basic responsability
Hi Larry!,
Suggest selected Rare Earth companies and including with known reserves of Lithium, potential Liquified Natural Gas producers, Coal-Seam Gas/Natural Gas/Oil explorers where infrastructure/cities nearby, selected Uranium stocks with proven large reserves, Silver explorers with proven reserves. Sell when high, buy when low as regularly as market allows.
Best, Gordon
Hi,
I think the gold buying should maybe halt for a while and we should look at silver as the next buy. Silver has often had a larger gain than gold in the short run. It’s a little more like cash in the pocket should another terror attack happen in the U.S.
If I wanted a loaf of bread, better an ounce of silver than looking for change on a one ounce gold coin. This is from a survivalist point of view of course.
I will buying buying gold and silver this week as I have been waiting for this correction. I will scale in if it goes lower again.
i am 72.[ need income investments that are safe as posable] sold [gld] when i found out it was paper gold.
I am not sure now is this the right time to load up with precious metals or should we wait a bit longer. Receiving many conflicting information and cannot decide on the positon to take. For example, one says Gold price should take a break and the price is expected to pull back to US$950 or even to US$850. This is supported by another one who says USD has legs and Dollar rally is expected to stay. One says inflation is not the concerned now but later on. I suppose in environment of lack of clear direction/trend and in the midst mixed signals, the best thing to do is hold cash until the market has decided its direction.
Right now the government has to let the dollar sink so it can pay off the national debt in mini-dollars. The national debt is around 14 trillion and rising. If the dollar is orchastrated to collaps to the value of a dime it will take 10 times as many dollars to buy an ounce of gold, In other words, gold will be worth 10 times as much and that will allow the debt to be paid off with only 1.4 trillion in gold, instead of 14 trillion in gold.
What good is it to make 10% on a dollar investment if that same dollar devaluates 11% during that same time period ?
I believe that silver is the way to go. You have the safety of a precious metal together with the demand and usefulness of an industrial metal that is only going to increase as the population increases and as more and more people in Asian countries become more affluent and are able to own the products of technology.
I’m waiting for the dust to settle a bit, then will be ready to “back up the truck” on metals, miners, oil and gas explorers/producers and royalty investments. Right now, I’m 40% in cash and waiting patiently to load up.
I like Gold but think Silver has more of a way to go. The Gold/Silver ratio is skewed from historical levels and will probably revert to the mean. I am also a fan of Palladium. When we build new cars we need the metal and when we repair cars we need the metal for the catalytic converter replacement. Perhaps a pullback is in order. Gold has had it so am thinking more in terms of the gold miners (GDX).
Dear Larry,
Gold is being hammered. I have 6% of my assets in precious metals. I still retain some cash and wonder if this is a good time to increase.
regards,
clive
Gold, oil and high yield rental property in emerging countries
Hello everyone,
From my meagre understanding of events and expertise - what I gather from the “experts” is that
the question mark as far as “whats to be” is whether or not our country will end up going inflationary
or deflationary - whatever it will be, will be the “directiion of the “final” outcome.
what’s to be?
Some say inflationary, others say deflationary!
I understand also that if it is inflationary, dollars are worthless in comparison to “goods”
Which means that precious metals will triumph - if deflationary precious metals along with
“everything else” will be the opposite.
In either case, the bottom line as far as I am concerned, the above “principles” are quotes from
experts of course. As far as my personal opinion -
To be wise - play it safe - keep your assets -secure - until either or “shows its face” and then still
wait alwhile because “that face could be the “false face” - the real depression started in l932 - not
1929 - so and oz. of prevention is worth a pound of cure - something that egos in general “know nothing about” “it takes a wise one to recognize another wise one” egos not being wise-suffer!
maurice rothman
I hold mostly silver bullion and considering a purchase in colored diamonds to help hold my purchasing power..Although I beleive metals still have downward pressure I beleive gold will bottom near the 980 but I firmly beleive better to be early than late…as far as stock I like the ggn fund(!)%dividend with upside to gold)I have a few explorers that I think have Tremendous oppty,One of which has just signed a jpoint venture agreement…I will take every 5% decline to buy more silver bullion…
1. Our government lies, has a plunge protection team to manipulate every facet of the economy and they admit this, the current increase in stocks has no volume, only futures buying after hours which is the Fed. Employment is actually around 17% and getting worse (shadow statistics) and no recovery can come without them, recovery is impossible without dollar devaluation and massive printing is an overt signal that this is the desire. Fundamentally, we are bankrupt and the investment analysis should focus on the end game. The economy of America and the world will have to be restructured, it is just a matter of time. This will happen.
2. Terrorism. This idea comes and goes when talking about investing. Few mention it or think about it when talking about investing. It is just a matter of time before another event occurs in America. This will happen.
3. Gold, 100% since it was $400.
4. Greatest investment opportunity in history if you are liquid when the bottom comes. Forget about return unless you need it monthly to live. Safety, safety, safety. Patience, patience, patience.
I have 10% of my total assets in gold and silver. Of that 50% is in high grade pre 1933 coins and the rest in bullion, don’t trust the ETF’s! I do believe for the long term this is the place to be. Also keeping in mind that there is a high degree of government manipulation (see GATA) to suppress these markets it will still outperform stocks. It is my thought that somewhere along the line there is going to be a major currency shift. Since the US can’t print their way out of this mess and default is out of the question the only way after massive QE is to change the game. Perhaps it will coincide with the end of the Myan calander in 2012.Just watched an interesting show on the History channel regarding that.
Hi Larry, Elliot Wave shows gold possibly declining down to the 700 to 650 range. I realize holding gold is a great idea, but with this a possibility, is it a wise idea to sell now and purchase again when it dips? Do you see this happening? There is a testing low in the 1050 range according to chart as well, but why wait if it goes lower? Please comment. Thanks!
I own some AGQ which mimicks silver on margin.
However, over the past few years one thing appears obvious to me.
There is a timeline to our problems that play out with many ups and downs.
Its very important that I not get too exhuberant on ups and despondent on downs. THe world is tugging at deflationary oversupply of labor and phenominal productivity which is offsetting the money printing.
Well,I don’t exactly start off by trying to build a balanced portfolio.Rather,I look for value and then try to avoid overcommitting to any one sector.At the moment,Gold shares look undervalued - if you could be sure that Gold would remain at $1000 +. Equities elsewhere look overvalued - particularly in the US and UK markets.Bonds generally are overvalued in countries where they are printing too much money - and I am even trying to avoid holding much cash in US dollars and Sterling.Some people whose opinion I respect tell me that Property in the US and UK is no bargain,either.So,for me,a balanced portfolio is a pipe-dream that I can only aspire to at the moment !
I’ve invested in precious metals for 30 years - made both huge profits & stunning losses.
Now is the time for cautioin - If prices drift lower in the near-term then I plan to back up the truck and load up on silver. In my thinking silver is the best investment vehicle - buying & storing the metal is a hassle but I think Jason Hommel has some good ideas on this. I also try to pick good silver & gold mining stocks. I especially like Timmins Gold, Exeter Resources & Taseco Mining..
An expert at Monex website said that as platinum and palladium were high he would wait and buy platinum at 1,300 and paladium at 300. He thought gold could go as low as 10,030 on a dip then go up, silver could go to 16 then up to 20 and above.
All bets are off short term because of all the global liquidity and money sitting on the sidelines to react to news in a nanosecond that causes irrational spikes. That said, the dollar was oversold and until it comes back to relative GDP parity to other fiat currencies (also being overprinted), then gold should decline slightly and silver and platinum should not because the usual parity relative value to gold. We sold out of the US equities market two weeks ago before the decline and went into MM (which will go up when interest rates increase (sooner than later?) Double “V” recovery? Only if Fed repeats their 1937-8 premature “tightening”, but current “lose-lose” action is to keep on deficit spending/diluting dollar value. Only oil stocks should be a sure bet to increase, since China will build 15M automobiles for domestic consumption in 2010– 87% by 5 top Chinese producers, each with less than 20% market share. This is only my opinion and not a recommendation of any kind.
I feel that there has to be a weakening of the dollar before I will start buying again.
Larry,
Are you blending apples and oranges? Long term investors with short and mid term investors. Each and every time I buy a stock I want a long term investment. I have never found a long term investment and with the existing volitility I’m lucky if they turn out to be medium term.
You ask a question but which type investor are you directing that question? Probably two different answers to each question.
Regards,
Hold GG and NEM on your recomendation. With the current down trend and wondering if I should Hold.
There are so many blatant contradictions about gold right now, it’s a bubble vs. buy now, that I feel very confused actually. I see your arguments about the long term rise in gold and it makes so much sense to me that I definitely want to buy more gold when it’s at the bottom of this cycle - ha! But with all the gold bears out there right now, it seems like it will probably go down more before it’s time to buy again. I still have a lot of gold though and other precious metals as well, but I guess I’ll sell a little of it now.
As the Dollar continues to rise against other currencies gold and silver prices will go down. We need to wait until the dollar stops rising before we start purchasing gold and silver. I’m looking for the Dollar Index to rise to 85 plus before it stops its rise. As long as the dollar continues to rise, gold and silver and other commodities will continue to fall.
The only change in my position will be a war between Israel and the muslin world. When that starts buy commodities like there is no tomorrow.
I believe Silver has a catch up gap and will be a great play in 2010.
I sold all my US I Bonds in Fall 2009 and 1 Jan 2010, and the accrued interest was immediately invested (tax free) in Coverdell ESAs for my grandchildren.
In the last year I have invested in China; Taiwan; South Korea; Peru; Russia; Singapore; Japan; Canada, and commodities - really like GGG:AU if you are into rare earth “metals”.
My perspective is perhaps a bit different as I have lived offshore since May 2003 and have many assets outside the EE.UU.
HEY LARRY: IVE PROBABLY GOT 25% OF MY PORTFOLIOS IN MINING STOCKS. AUY. EGO, SLW, RVMIF. I HAVE BEEN IN DIVIDEND PAYING GOOD UTILITIES FOR 20 YEARS. OTTR & FPL, SCG, AND D. I SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN OUT OF MY MINING STOCKS EARLIER. I WISH I HAD THE CASH TO BUY SOME NOW! I ENJOY YOUR BLOGS. THANKS
Since there`s blood in the streets now referring to the precious metals only, it`s a good time to load up on these junior mining shares that almost everyone (the self proclaimed experts) said many times over that the juniors wouldn`t be a great speculation. In fact they all inferred that this time is sooooo much different than 1979-1980, since there are ETF`s now and that the junior resource golds would not rise much at all. I`m sure these statements kept the “public” from purchasing these shares at these bargain basement prices. Recommendation: buy like mad!
I am a beliver in Eliotte Wave theory. Wave 3 of 3 down in the stockmarkets is coming. Also, Gold and Silver are entering a down trend that should last through the end of the year.
Larry
Health problem forced me into retirement 2001. Decided at the time to unload home and business which left me with 135M after cleaning up debts. Decided to try stock market, though I was a greenhorn. Purchased 65M of one ounce Kugerands and dove into the market with some sucess. Got out while ahead and purchased additional 80 one ounce Krugerands, 99% of my assets. Purchase price averaged out to $510 ea. Turned out to be a good move. Last I checked, Krugs were valued at over $1M. Just recently sold 65M for needed purchases 25M, with additional 40M to invest in the stock market. Please with me luck.
James Stein
The dollar seems to be moving up, so gold is losing ground, for how long? For the last month
gold has been a loser, why do advisors keep saying “buy gold”
Larry,
This week I sold my AA, 36% X,54% YZC136%, for a good profit. Over all my portfolio of stocks are now mixed. What do you think of ETF Australia ewa & Canada ewc both have commodities and a stable currency?
For those of us who have been investing in Gold and Silver, Bullion and Stocks I hope the time is near for the PM Stocks. Not to be greedy but no one gets excited about a 10% move any more. I don’t know what its going to take for Gold and Silver to make a Sub-Stained move higher but I would like to “spend” some profits before I am too old to do so. For the record, I have been in Precious Metals since 2001. Thanks. Mick.
I am not so interested inwhat other investors are doing as I am interested in what you professionals are recommending. I think you all know best.
Iam 100% in silver. I beleive silver will out perform them all. i have 40% in physical silver & 60% in stocks.
Is this the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals … or not? Why?
Our Tres/FED using GS is activeky manipulating the market by supporting the US$. Until there is a break in the UD$/ AU price movement or a top reached in the US$ run up - the time to buy AU & AG is likely a shot fired too early.
How much of your portfolio have you invested? Do you plan to buy more in the months ahead? — with out a doubt - Plenty of cash on hand for PMs
Which are your favorites? Gold? Silver? Platinum? Palladium?
Gold (EGO) (AUY) & Silver (SLW)
Like Larry I believe the precious metals have a lot more upside. Also I think Silver has the edge when it comes to the percentage gain. My largest holding is AGQ which doubles the gain or loss of physical silver (SLV)
Holding core physicals. Plan to add but not yet. Cash is good, dollar moving up nicely… for now. Deflationary downleg on the cards. That will provide the impetus to add more physical. Patience is everything.
There’s a long way to go before letting go of the physical side of metals IMO. The West is bust, most currencies are bust. They both need a lot of fixing- Euro, Dollar, Pound, Yen… Am not selling my insurance but am willing to pick up some more when the time is right. That means later this year, I think, when the Dollar has done its thang. Having said that I expect metals to bounce off trendlines before falling again.
Prechters 680 would be lovely but is it realistic under the circumstances? After this dollar rally is done I expect to see a rush to the safe havens. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, in that order.
Thank you Larry for creating such a venue to connect with those actively interested and also who follows after your tutorship and vast knowledge and experience. With much gratitude, Tyco
65 years ago my uncle gave me advice on buying gold. One ounce of gold should buy a high quality man’s suit. Visit a quality man’s clothing store and look at the price of a suit, if the suit is higher than gold, buy gold, if it is lower than an ounce of gold, then sell. Right now I am looking for 900 to 950 to buy again, or the price of the suit has to go up.
I have been concerned for some time about the declining value of the US Dollar especially as it
effects our 401 k’s and fixed pensions. There is, additionally, the decline in real estate prices
which has adverseley effected our overall net worth. Thus, I would like to take most of our assets offshore, such as investing in Australian fixed income funds which have a good overall rate of
return or converting some of my 401 k money into Swiss Franks. The Euro is not on solid footing right now because of large debts in some European member states and low economic growth. This will give the $ a boost, but I have no clue as to how high it will go.
Understanding the economy is complex and what one expects does not materialize especially in the short run because of manipulation. Investing in Gold is also tricky because it may be adverseley effected as the markets decline and as the currency swap deal ends.
Silver, silver and silver….physical possession, only
It seems to me as if physical gold and silver (COINS only) should predominate our investment (at least 40% I think).
Silver seems to me being the big favourite: it is not expensive and with small coins you can pay your daily deliveries of food in case the crisis turns really ugly. Everybody accepts silver as payment. I got 60% of by investment budget in gold and silver. The rest is stocks (also gold and silver, oil and mines); that’s all. I am not sure how stocks will evolve during a heavy crisis, my guts tell me that I should invest 80% of my total investment in silver/gold. That means that I have to sell precious metals stocks and shift in physical ag/au.
I am 72 years old, retired, and living on investment income. In addition to TIC (tenant-in-common) real estate which is having a rough time with the economic downturn, I own two dividend paying stocks: British Petroleum (BP) and Reality Income (O), both paying in the 5-6% range. Recently I had some extra cash in a money market fund and rather than continue with the zip yield it pays, I decided to also invest it in BP to have a liquid investment as well as make a decent return. The very next day it dropped 7% (sigh).
China has a very low % of thier currency backed by Gold, They could tighten money even more to lower Gold prices so they could buy more.Gold will go under 1,000 ounce, buy Gold, Silver.
Steve
I am buying gold shares in GTU and have some coins as well. Also have shares in SLV and CEF and some shares in GG. It is about 5% of my portfolio as I see inflation in the future and want safety when our dollar is devalued.
Even though I am somewhat overweighted in precious metals at this time (~35%) I feel that we are approaching an epic buying opportunity, as it seems that the bullion banks are covering their shorts—I am counting on you, Larry to help me gauge when that time is! I am also weighted toward dividend-paying resource stocks as well.
How far does the dollar go, now that the Fed will cease to use Central Bank Swaps? will this suck some dollars out of circulation, causing the dollar to rise and commodities to decline, in particular precious metals?
With the pending collapse of the US dollar, and therefore the loss of the reserve currency status of the dollar, I do not understand why anyone would waste their time thinking ,or planning for any other event! I believe we are going to be in a super inflationary environment for at least the next five years. We are going to have to determine what should own when we start over again.
It seems Gold and Silver are near a strong Support area, nice place to keep on building bullion positions or stay still if you already have enough. What worry me most is a posible downturn trend in stocks and its effect on PM.
I think the PM stocks are poised to reverse their decline after maybe one more gasp move down.
The physical PM’s will lead but not by much… the move will be quick - back to recent highs.
The dollar is destined to go higher, but at this time, needs a rest.
Yes, it’s time to load up due to seasonality and technical patterns. The gold miners bullish percent on stockcharts.com should be monitored daily:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$BPGDM,P&listNum=
Once it reverse from below 30 (and it’s currently below 30, it would be the signal to buy GDX or GDXJ (the latter is riskier). A suitable etf for platinum is PTM or PGM.
The second reason to get ready to go long is seasonality which begins now. In general, energy and materials will do well for someone who thinks buy and sell (not hold) for these etfs.
I’m out of gold and silver completely and probably won’t be moving back for a long time. I think the trend is down for an extended period and it will take a 30-40% correction for me to consider gold again. I’m mostly in cash (70% money market) with the remainder in basic needs dividend stocks, like utilities and staples. There is simply too much political uncertainty for any sustained growth in the US, and let’s face it, the US consumer is still the engine that drives exporting countries economies. With high unemployment and heavy debt load, the US consumers won’t be consuming much any time soon, regardless of what Washington wants us to think. When the US consumers aren’t consuming, it impacts everyone. So,until we default on our debt I’m still spending my dollars in the USA. The fluctuations of the dollar versus other currencies doesn’t impact me immediately. I’m not buying groceries in China with US dollars and I can’t buy groceries in my local supermarket with gold bullion, at least not yet.
This last 2 weeks the DOW has seen triple digit losses, three days in a row. This can’t be us
small investors. Who is it?
Half in gold and silver,short term treasuries and a swiss annuity
I’m a big fan and enjoy your commentary. My wife and I are 65 and 64, respectfully and are “semi-retired”. We both collect Social Security each month(total of $2100 before medicare payments). The only debt we have is a $95,000 mortgage on our house, period. As to our investment in precious metals, it is very heavy. We like gold first, and silver second. We have approx. 40% of our savings in these metals, and will bring that percentage up to about 70% during the next 3 quarters of 2010. We gather our economic information from various sources such as yourself, John Paulson, etc., and keep a sharp eye on what the U.S., the Fed, and the international community is doing that would influence the price of precious metals.
Also, Larry, we have a son who is an astrologer and based on his study of future astrological events, we feel this gives us a “leg-up” on the probable occurrences that will influence precious metal prices. For example, between now and March 10th of 2010, gold/silver will trade in a downward/sideways trend, then the lineup/aspects of planetary bodies will dictate that gold/silver will begin a sharp upward rise. And, of course, this coincides with the scheduled news on a new round of commercial/residencial real estate derivitives. Our son, David, also feels that gold/silver will most probably reach their peak price in 2010 in late September. Therefore, we will time our future buying/selling of gold/silver based on economic events as well as incorporating the astrological signals presented by David. I will also mention that all our investments will be tangible and in-hand.
We will keep about $15-20 thousand in ready cash, and will buy Indian rupees in the near future, along with the 1.5 million Iraqi dinars we already have. Larry, very bad times our coming(many severe natural disasters in 2010), as well as the near demise of the dollar. My wife and I are very adament about keeping whatever assets we have In-Hand. We have no trust in government policy, and see them as the biggest threat to our well being. We are working hard towards self-sufficiency and hope to “ride out” the strorms that are ahead.
Wishing you and yours well, Be of Good Cheer…
Louis Fuscaldo
Hi Larry,
I have an emergency fund in my safe deposit box that consists of silver bars and foreign currancy. I have Swiss francs & Canadian dollars. I figure with the small interest being paid by CD’s & money market funds, I am much better off with foriegn cash than US dollars if and when tthe US dollar collapses. I have one question; do you think mutual funds are a losers game? I have invested regularly (dollar cost averaging) for 15 years in conservative funds (Vangusrd S&P 500 etc) and due to the last market crash I would have been better off with my money buried in my back yard! I would appreciate your input,…thanks
Ernie
i enjoy reading the different ideas everyone has in investing ;i am very new to this and many of them sound real good. one friend showed me he made a small fortune in tradeing currencies, he tells me to invest in IQD [iraq dinars] any thoughts? UNSURE
I am amazed at some com ments/they sound like pro’s! I hold a swiss nannuity, short term treasuries and gold and silver, Metals were very kind to me, in the 70;s and i remain fzithful. Gold and silver always have value/
Long term I find it almost impossible to visualize declining precious metal values relative to all fiat currencies. In the short term, there has been a large volume of self serving “news” in favor of the Chinese long term goal of acquiring 12,000 metric tons of gold and large stockpiles of strategic metals especially silver, that is the allegedly huge 186 mile long silver find “under the Great Wall”, their comments that gold is in a bubble…..both of which may likely knock silver and gold in the near future (2-3 months). Also George Soros says he believes gold and silver are in a bubble and has tried to make his comments widely known, in my opinion purely to make it cheaper for him to acquire. I certainly would stay away from futures (except maybe on the short side, and then only if you’ve got the funds to gamble, as you will likely lose). Platinum and palladium are good long term bets especially as auto manufacturing in India and China accelerate. I believe that ETF’s will be good long term but would wait a few weeks before purchasing to let the metals markets shake out a bit and gain some new footing, same for miners. Your base holdings should absolutely be in your posession and use funds that you know you won’t need for at least 2 years. PM’s should make up to 30% of your portfolio at the present.
It is absolutely essential to hold precious metals in your portfolio! The reason is that it is REAL MONEY and cannot be destroyed by the government to pay off its debt. I think a reasonable allocation is between 30% to 50% of your net worth. Yes, that may seem high but it is insurance from the collapse of the dollar and other fiat currencies. Of the four metals I would hold gold 40%, silver 30% and both platinum and palladium at 15% each. Do not use GLD or SLV as the 3rd party risk is too high. Own the physical metal!
Good Sunday Larry, Martin and fellow investors
I’m a fervent believer in diversification, long term investing and dollar cost averaging = the applies to precious metals - I allocate about 10% to this category. I prefer silver because of the industrial use in addition to inlationary hedge, the same applies to platinum
Split between:
Gold coins (buillion not rare) Silver (coins, bars, rounds) Platinum coins - all smaller donominations, easier to sell
ETFs - GDX (Gold Miners, GLD (pyhsical gold), GCC (comodities futures inc gold/silver)
Stocks - BHP/BBL (global base metals mining), CCJ (Uranium mining Canada), SLW (golbal silver mining - unique niche), SVM (silver mining China), TCK (Canadian base metals mining)
Time to protect against the weakening dollar.
William
I am going to sit on my gold and silver until it busts out of the gate because i believe that they will and I am ready for your sell advisory when the time comes.
Oscar G.
I believe we are in for another downturn in the markets like the one between late 2007 and
Mar 2009. I base this on technical and fundimental annalysis.This one will likely be even worse than that one for rate of decline and amount of decline. It will also take down virtually all investment categories with exception of the dollar. Look at what went down between late 2007 and Mar 2009. I am currently short the Euro (DRR) and hold short ETFs in the Nasdak (QID) the S&P 500 (SH) and the China stock market (FXP). These are starter positions that I will increase as the downturn becomes totally confirmed. I used the same techniques to play the downturn between late 2007 and Mar 2009 to make about 40% on my trading portfolio and with that experience I hope to do better this time.
Too early to load up on the precious metals IMO…debt crisis coming this year deflation rears it’s ugly head once again as credit/debt markets contract. Should have 10% in gold to hedge against collapse. Other than that would sell into strenth and lighten up. Would look at metals again if they reach March 09 lows…Bottom line all assets will be sold off to raise dollars to pay debts. See a replay of 08 but of a greater magnitude. At some point US government will be forced to either default or devalue the currency. Still think we are a couple of years away from that.
Larry,
From what I am hearing, silver appears to be reaching a critical supply/demand point. Is this true? If so, silver could explode to the upside and begin to reach or exceed its historical ratio with gold. Your thoughts?
Best wishes,
George.
if so,
I think Oil Royalty Trusts are great - they offer good yields with capital potential. I am an Oil nut.
Is this a bad idea?
Roy
Back up the truck………but not to fast………I see a bit of a retraction to the the metals market for the short while if one is $ cost averaging into it that’s fine otherwise wait you will see a great buying oppurtunity right around the corner………and when it does get here load up on the silver in particular……..biggest bang for the $ spent in my opinion. I am Fully out of equities except for mining stock thru a fund………other then that I am invested in the metals and cash………….no paper at this time please…….you will lose your shirts……..i expect a 30-50% deval of the $ this year alone meaning everything we need is going to go up in price………invest wisely!!!!!!!!!!!……….
I am more of buy & hold person,but with the markets moving in tandem , caution and timing now are
very important. foriegn is definantly stronger. there appears to be some good entry points here.diversity is a must. I am in gold/siver,stocks,mutual funds,and real estate rentals which give me a consistant 10-12 % return on my investment $$. Pacific/asia etfs have done well, and specific country etfs are very good also and reguire a little less monitoring than stocks.I am 70, and will be moving more to world bonds at this point,such as, sdgix,tgbax.
rkb
It seems apparent that most want to play the metals instead of the stocks. I think they are right on the money. The only two metals that give more bang for the buck with a real use instead of just good looks is paladium(autos) and platinum (autos, aerospace) ect. It’s like beauty with some brains or in this case some insurance. Buy for short term, feel around the auto futures overseas, then add Leaps.
I think that interest rates are WAY too low to be in fixed income investments. With all of the incredible debt and the corruption by many of the big players (like Goldman and JP Morgan), eventually there will be a blowback and rates must rise. Who is going to buy all of the worthless U.S. paper? Not me. I am weighted towards GOLD and silver, and waiting to move in much heavier… and that will be very soon now. There has been much artificial suppression of gold and especially silver, and when it ends, the prices will soar, IMO. By the time the gold/silver run is reflecting a more true value to the mountain of dollar debt and the mountain of State and National crises, it will be time to move some into fixed income… by that time, I am thinking around 12-15%…
Hi larry,
How do you feel about : AAPL and BIDU (Tech ) in particular, beside your Real Wealth Report which by the way did not change to mach in the past 6 month or so, and almost everything in your list is going down trend. Any tips, or advise with this turmoil betwen politics and bank and anything that go to the drain ???
I don’t believe silver is going to go very much higher from here if it even goes higher. The BRIC economies we were told in 2007 and 2008 were “de-coupled” from the developed nations. We all saw what a massive error that assumption was. Silver will fall over the next several weeks and may present a real buying opportunity. Silver, a predominately industrial use commodity, is highly dependent on ‘REAL’ economic growth not the lies coming out of Washington and Beijing. When we start hitting the ‘hard rocks’ later this year in the form of massive bank write-offs, write-downs and consumer defaults; A wave of Option-Arm and Alt-A mortgage loan resets will bring a redux of 2008 with it for the markets. Silver prices will respond upward to the subsequent wave of hyper-inflationary forces last seen in the late 1970’s early 1980’s. My feelings on silver at present.
Kevin M
My view on Gold is it has to be part of my assets. Coins as a bomb shelter, kept partly because it is a pain to sell, I just keep them and don’t care if they fluctuate. GLD for bigger positions and I have not sold any for a couple of years and gold stocks and mining funds or etf’s for leverage. I sold silver at the very bottom to take the loss against a real estate gain and never got back in. I kick my self and shouldn’t stay out, but it is like a dog that once bit you. Also, I follow Richard Russell re Gold. Still, I need income and don’t know where to go. I have some minis and some did paying stocks, but mostly cash at 1.5%
Regards,
David
For moderaration purposes I should clarify that I would play palladium(pal) and platinum(plat) in etf”s only.Short term for the look around, and long term (max 90 days) if the auto sector looks good. Sell if there are any recalls on Ford.
Larry you started me in the AU/AG arena back in 2001. The years have been up and down but mostly up. I have the same amount of FRNs that I retired with in 2000 today, even after withdrawing all the monies needed to live very comfortably for the past 10 years. Thank you and Martin/Sean for the help all these years.
The fixed income people are about to get annilated. Gold is going to 1650/Jim S or Bob M or Larry E and I think silver may hit 26 this year or better, once we eliminate JP M and their obscene short position. There is NO other solution to the world’s financial problems, as gold is real money EVEYWHERE in the world.
So go small[jrs] medium[jrs] and big[GG,AEM,KGC] and load up the boat.
As a final note I was up 86% in one portfolio and 83% in my wife’s portfolio in 2009 - all in gold/silver.
I DONT KNOW WHAT TO THINK ,AS Ive never had anything to do with this kind of investment.However Im willing to learn about these markets .
Larry:
I’ve been led to believe that you and your colleagues are considered the experts in investing!
I don’t want to know what others think! They don’t have your experience. What I want is to hear what YOU and your colleagues have to say!!!!!
Thank you,
Richard Schneider
Sir- we need to look at the overall personal @ world situation when placing money. What if we had a large earthquake ?. We each need extra food stored, continued accest to water, ability to continue to buy as available, private ability to defend onesself. The continued need for 2 nd. gun rights > what if hungry mobs came your way will you have personal protection?. Or will you lose everything including your life?. Guns protect you. Coming earthquakes- are you ready?. bye Richard. ps- will you live thru them?.
get out of PM stocks now, then buy them back, or, stay in for the longer haul,,,I think many may be wondering that this weekend????
I have been stopped out of a lot of my positions. This seems a message to stay out of the market. At 80+ I need to get into some income investments to help with expenses, but am at a loss as to what those investment should be.
ARJ
My view on Gold is it has to be part of my assets. Coins as a bomb shelter, kept partly because it is a pain to sell, I just keep them and don’t care if they fluctuate. GLD for bigger positions and I have not sold any for a couple of years and gold stocks and mining funds or etf’s for leverage. I sold silver at the very bottom to take the loss against a real estate gain and never got back in. I kick my self and shouldn’t stay out, but it is like a dog that once bit you. Also, I follow Richard Russell re Gold. Still, I need income and don’t know where to go. I have some minis and some dvd paying stocks, but mostly cash at 1.5%
Regards,
David
Hi Larry,
NO, This is NOT the time to load up on Gold and Silver. My Fundamental, Technical and Cyclical analysis is telling me that we are currently going back into deflation trade for short to intermediate term (ie. 3-9months). This is occuring as we speak! The equity markets are down 6% YTD already. I am predicting a correction of at least 10% (and this could be conservative). So, just like late 2008, all asset classes are going down with the exception of CASH, TREASURIES,SHORTS, DOLLAR. Two months ago, I sold all my gold stocks as well as shifted other assets into Treasuries, Cash and Shorting ETFs as well as Dollar ETF. I am still HOLDING MY CORE GOLD positions however. They were purchased 3-8 years ago. I am doing very well since the beginning of this year. Everything is going to plan thus far. I must admit, I think your WEISS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT colleagues understand the situation very well for this year. Once this deflation trade/cycle ends, then yes, it will be a time to add back to GOLD, SILVER and possibly their equities and commodities as well as we head back into inflation trade/cycle again. A NOTE OF CAUTION: this deflation trade could be deeper and longer than I am predicting at this time, especially if we rhyme with the GREAT DEPRESSION OR JAPANS LOST 2 DECADES or some hybrid of the two, which I believe the data is showing to be true………….
Time to start nibbling at quality precious metals stocks. They are oversold. blow the 200 day MA. If gold goes lower around 1000 or just below……….back up the truck. Three years from now, what will be worth more? Gold or the dollar.
I use my gold and silver as my primary savings account instead of holding US Currency. With the metals sliding right now, I am loading up on silver as it is trading well below it’s all time high as opposed to Gold. Right now I am buying .999 fine silver rounds and getting them at a dollar over spot as opposed to a higher premium from the Eagles or Maples. I am able to buy much more of the metal as a result of the savings. It seems silver doubling to $34 dollars an ounce will be much easier than gold going to $2200. Still 70 percent of my holdings are gold and 30 percent are silver.
I think a portfolio of conservative Master Limited Partnerships deserves consideration in any fixed income strategy. These vehicles (which trade just like stocks) pay generous distributions which are tax deferred. Since most if not all of their distributions are considered to be returns of capital, taxes are not due until (and if) one sells the stock. Comservative MLPs ((like Enterprise Partners(EPD), Genesis Energy (GEL), Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) own a mix of energy distribution and storage assets. This means that their share price is NOT dependent on the price of oil and gas. Conservative MLPs also have a consistent track record of increasing their distribuitionssevery quarter. The ones mentioned above even continued to do so during the 08 early 09 meltdown. Sure their share price dropped off during this time, but if you had no intention of selling, that was a non-event (and also a great opportunity to add to your position at a phenomenally high yield). These companies keep their businesses growing by adding to their assets and this requires access to capital. The best of breed ones have had no problems continuing to access capital markets at very favorable rates.
The one caution I would make is to avoid the pursuit of high yields. There is a large array of MLPs out there and some paying high distributions are in businesses that are directly dependent on metrics like energy prices and shipping rates. If a conservative income investor sticks with the best of breed conservative MLPs they can obtain a nice 7%+ tax derferred income stream with little or no downside risk. (barring a total collapse of civilization)
It seems like everyone in the world is buying gold right now.There are full page ads in the papers,plus numerous small ads for people wanting to buy jewelry,old coins,etc.I have learned that the common people are usually manipulated by large firms and usually exactly wrong when it comes to making market decisions.According to your contrarian advise,it seems that now is a good time to sell all gold and short this market.The best time to buy gold is when the full page ads to buy gold disappear from the papers and magazines. Any comments?
No yet. The dollar will get stronger and metals will weaken further. The risk of a double dip recession with global implications (greece, italy, spain, ireland etc) is increasing. Unless the inverse dollar vs precious metals trend reverses (which is shows no signs of doing yet) this will continue for a while longer. When the charts reverse, THAT is the tiime to buy. Suggestion: watch weekly as well as daily charts. They are still saying GLD has lower to go. I’ve been out of GLD related trades isince December. But I’m building my list of mining stocks for the right time.
Hi Larry.
I like gold, however, it looks like the market is ripe for a slide.
Last november, gold tanked as well. My best bet id to go low
on the market for now and buy gold later. What do you have
to play short the market?
Victor
We are retired, 72 years old, still have a mortgage, and struggling to grow our meager remaining $53K of retirement investments. We follow your newsletter Larry, have investments in gold, silver, and stocks that pay dividends for obvious reasons, WE NEED INCOME! Expenses have been cut to the bone, but contrary to what the Fed says, the COL is NOT zero. Keeping our COLA for SS to $0 for TWO years is a complete joke as every single item that we need to live on has risen. Luckily I followed your advice and Martin’s when mortgage rates hit a low of 4.5% we refinanced at that rate, FIXED of course.
We don’t play the lottery, as the odds of ever winning that are about as good as me being selected as Mr. America, I leave the lottery to fools.
There are many, many of us senior citizens who are strongly independent, but are badly in need of INCOME. I am not adverse to risk, but with so little money remaining to risk, I have steered clear of Options even though it is really tempting. I cannot join any programs that you and Martin offer because we don’t have $1M, $250K, $100K, and now $50K is in serious jeopardy. So what is there for us I ask? All the big investors are being taking care of, those who have considerably more money to invest, or are still working and have more years to invest their income. WE ARE FIXED, nailed to the ground of sort. We will continue to use your excellent advice because we have faith in you, but please give us more INCOME ideas. Larry, WE NEED YOUR HELP !! The Titanic is sinking and the sharks are circling.
I repeat Larry ,please look @SVM..Silvercorp Metals…Best mining stock in the World Right Now…I am from Western,N.Y. and when our Buffalo Bills were in the glory days our coach Marv Levy On Sundays would say to the team..Jim Kelly,Bruce Smith Andre Reed Thurman Thomas etc…”Where would you rather be than right here right now.”..Thats SVM.Soon to announce the largest silver discovery in history..lowest cost producer @ negative 6 bucks per ounce as they sell the lead and zinc concentrates to the Chinese as they mine the silver…and You have a country who respects and believes in silver as an investment and form of money promoted by the gov….couple that with the cftc shining light on jp morgan and the gold silver ratio so out of wack and we have the recipe for monsterous gains with this co.!!!!
I am paying you for your advice and guidance. I can walk up and down the street and get all sorts of sdvice from the know it allls (I am being polite). I am retired and my main source of income is a reversible mortagage and sociall security. IRA is in RS Nautral Sesources fund and abokut $200,000 in USGlobal Gold and Pres Metals fund. I have 20,ooo in Checking account. Big artiacle in Fortune recently stated Gold is heading to $500. Whoa—this is where I am depending on you and your wisdom here–not Ralph Cramden blarting out his comments!!! You are da man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please Speak to us Sir Larry E.
I am a long time investor in gold coins and was surprised to learn from my tax expert that upon selling these coins they will be taxed as collectables at 28%. American gold and silver eagles are exempt.
I am heavy in gold but less in silver. I bought gold stocks too. But with the Dow stocks coming down, I am afraid gold stocks may go down. Should I sell them down and put them in gold ETF? Forget about gold stocks?
In regards to Jay Curtis concerns and points …” why don’t you and I and everyone else who holds physical silver file a suit in federal court to force the regulators to enforce the law regarding short selling of silver futures and to require silver leasees to pay back the actual silver leased at the termination of the lease before a new lease can be entered into. What they are doing is actually illegal, leasing silver that can never be returned because its consumed and selling short silver that doesn’t exist. (I’m a lawyer). Yet no one stops them from selling short in quantities that are beyond the actual total amount of silver in the entire world. Shouldn’t we do something in federal court to stop this manipulation by Wall Street sanctioned by the CFTC?” He’s correct and other have pointed out here that JPM holds a big short position in Silver.
From Jim Sinclair and other CIGA’s the thing to do to stop the problem is to take delivery from Comex and their game will end. GLD’s and SLV’s are to be avoided from what I’ve read. GATA is trying their best to stop the manipulation, but it will take everyone taking possession of the physical metals to do the job according to Jim and friends.
Hi Larry,
I tend to view gold and silver as savings. It seems a much safer bet to me right now with more upside since with banks paying a paltry 0.75% interest on accounts there doesn’t seem to be much incentive to save cash to satisfy anything beyond perhaps short and intermediate term needs. I strive to take about 10% of my paycheck each month and put it into gold or silver.
There is a question burning in the back of my mind on which, if and when you get chance I would love some perspective. While gold is currently in a super cycle bull market, there is concern that it will eventually turn down again, perhaps in 5 to 10 years. With all the quantitative easing going on world wide and the ultimate likelihood of replacing the dollar, along with other currencies, what effect will this have on gold in terms of its ability to purchase real things? Thank you for all that you do!
In regards to Jay Curtis concerns and points …” why don’t you and I and everyone else who holds physical silver file a suit in federal court to force the regulators to enforce the law regarding short selling of silver futures and to require silver leasees to pay back the actual silver leased at the termination of the lease before a new lease can be entered into. What they are doing is actually illegal, leasing silver that can never be returned because its consumed and selling short silver that doesn’t exist. (I’m a lawyer). Yet no one stops them from selling short in quantities that are beyond the actual total amount of silver in the entire world. Shouldn’t we do something in federal court to stop this manipulation by Wall Street sanctioned by the CFTC?” He’s correct and others have pointed out here that JPM holds a big short position in Silver.
From Jim Sinclair and other CIGA’s the thing to do to stop the problem is to take delivery from Comex and their game will end. GLD’s and SLV’s are to be avoided from what I’ve read. GATA is trying their best to stop the manipulation, but it will take everyone taking possession of the physical metals to do the job according to Jim and friends.
Historically when a country tries to solve its problems by printing money, the value of the money always goes down. This is a good reason to buy gold because US is printing a lot of new money.
According to the charts on Silver, now may be a good time to sell. It looks like the price may go sideways with a downward bias for the next two weeks or so. The charts show a slight oversold position now but that does not mean the price has bottomed or that its going to go up in the near term. It may take two weeks for the charts to sort themselves out to give a buy signal. Give it a little time and good things come to a person with patients.
about 10% in gold, silver & platinum and plan to invest more when the present bear has clawed it’s way off the downside.
Guess I’m just a simple minded girl (age 67 and retired), but I LOVE my gold and silver. I’m 100% vested in precious metals and I’ve got possession of it all. I’ve heard too much about this “paper gold and silver” and I’ve lived long enough to know not to trust everybody, so I want my metals where I can get my hands on them. Of course, I don’t have lots of money, so this works great for me. I’m sure most people would think I’ve lost my mind, but I cashed in my annuity and bought silver and gold with it. It wasn’t a large amount by any means (about $100,000), but it was totally vested, so there’s no penalty. I’m willing to pay the lump sum taxes, since I paid through the nose every time I got any money anyway. I had to pay extra taxes on my social security every time I got money out. This way, I pay it all up front and I’m done with it.
I’ve read all of these comments and I’m very impressed with the knowledge of you folks. Much more than I possess. But common sense told me to get rid of my dollars, no matter how they were invested. In my opinion, fiat currency in any form of investment is a bad idea, no matter how much knowledge you have. Not knowing anything about precious metals (except that they’re God’s money and the only real money), out of ignorance I bought back in November when gold and silver both were too high, I’ve kicked myself for not doing more research, but there’s no doubt in my mind that I will get my money back and much more before this is all over with. I’ve taken my position and I’m adding as much silver to it every chance I get. I wish I had bought more silver and less gold because I do believe that the silver to gold ratio is eventually going back to its normal 16:1 ratio in the future. History tells us that. This silver to gold ratio right now seems to me to be a gift from God and I’m going to take advantage ot it.
None of us know how long this bull market will run, but I never needed this money for living expenses (my home is paid for, my car is paid for and I don’t have any debt), so I’ve taken my position in silver and gold and I’m holding on for the ride. I definitely would not be in the market at this time. I have made it my business to learn as much as I can about gold and silver and I truly don’t believe I’ve made a mistake. This is one basket that I don’t mind putting all my eggs in. I plan on holding my silver until the gap between the silver to gold ratio closes up quite a bit, then I’ll sell it. Boys and girls, we are in this for the long run, so buy your gold and silver and hang on to it. Don’t be upset because gold and silver is going down - just buy more, especially silver. When this economy crashes you will need your silver to buy gas and food. Of course, wouldn’t you know, I have food stored in bins, dated by years from 2010 to 2013, just in case the shelves at the stores are empty. Just trying to get prepared for whatever comes our way.
God bless you all!! Jesus is coming soon.
Being retired, I live on a fixed income coming in monthly (for the present).. The balance is in gold and silver since I feel strongly that this administration will not be able to recall enough of its monetary flooding of dollars to stem runaway inflation in a few years. In the interim, if I need additional funds I can always sell some of my “stash” since it has already given me a nice uptick. I often think of buying mining stocks, but then remember the admonition of those who say “paper stocks will fall with paper dollars.”
Hello
For me it depends where you believe this country is headed and the rest of the world for that matter.
I think eventually we are going to get a whole lot worse than we are now, I learned so much from The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. I think we are in a severe recession to a depression. I think when this is over, everything will be a whole lot less expensive than it is now. I would sit tight and be in the safest investments for now. I think all the commodities are in for a huge fall. I believe the US Govt is propping up our stock market like its never done before. Did you all see how much existing home sales have fallen for Dec. This govt has done nothing (and maybe it cannot) to help us out of this crisis. I do like some of the Canadian oil stocks with the dividends, some ETF’s both for growth and to short the market. The same for the precious metals.
I recently bought onto the reco. to buy calls on SLV. This reco. claimed for a great return on SLV. It was purchased in July ‘09, 80,000 shares of a Jan 17 CALL. the 2nd wk. of Dec. strike price on CBOE was about 17.27, yet the alledge strike for the holder of my SLV was 16.21, giving me a good hit in the loss dept.. WHY was there a loss, due to the different strike prices of the holder. It pretty much destroyed my confidence in purchasing any more Options. WK
Right now, I wish I had a less gold investments than I presently do, unfortunately, I bought in at the top expecting the “next leg up” and then the dollar took over. From the dollart charts I see, I think the dollar will still have some strength for the next several weeks or maybe into the part of the second quarter. There is no doubt that for the long term the dollar will continue its decline due to the printing presss. I plan to short some of my gold positions to try and recover some of the paper losses.
I have held two T-bonds for some years (2021 maturities) that paid over 8%. Last week I sold them (at 39% profit). The proceeds are in bank cash drawing zilch. I have CDs in Australian and Norwegian currencies. Neither are doing well what with the currently-flourishing USD. I have a large investment in GLD, gold mining stocks and bullion. They too are being pummeled by the USD but I expect them to return and scoot higher. Further stock investments are in China, So. Korea, India and international water shares and commodities — no U.S. common stuff…they are too vulnerable to the vagaries of our domestic economic scene. When my gut tells me the proletariat has tired of frittering their wealth into a hopeless U.S. currency and the USD begins its free-fall, I plan to convert my dollars into select foreign currencies (shying away from Europe but including Canada). With the current administration’s shaky hand on the financial helm of this country, there is no way we can return to solid economic footing in this country for years to come.
I followed the advise of Weiss and i sold all the stocks two weeks ago. 80% of my investment was in gold and silver mines.I was lucky because now i would have loused more than 15%.Before to reinvest in gold mines and silver mines i would like to see what happens with the dollar.
I am living in china so i am also interested on your reccomandation on chinese stocks.
Here I am, north of the 49th parallel, a senior, DIY, following the market via BNN and my computer. My U.S. holdings are only GLD ETFs and the rest are Canadian companys not necessarily with Canadian properties. I have gold bars and coins, stocks in Canadian Gold miners that are either producing and/or have proven reserves not yet mining amounting to 50% of my portfolio. 30% of my stocks are energy based and include Uranium. I am also invested in Molibdinum. I back all this with GICs (although low interest) which are somewhat of a comfort cushion. Am I on the right track?
Fixed income returns??? Look, I’m 75 years old and I have neither the time or patience to wait for any accumulation in my portfolio to be made by bonds and the like. Rod
My portfolio is heavy in good dividend paying stocks such as utilities and master limited partnerships. I also have muni bonds that are tax free for both federal and state taxes. I also have some of the stronger technology stocks and wireless communications stocks. Of course, I also have some gold mining stocks andd a gold ETF.
Gold and Silver ETFs continue to be in our portfolio, with cost averaging buys on the dips. We hold these assets not for survivor reasons, but to hedge value. A smaller percentage of investment is in mining plays for upside potential given the fundamentals. We continue to hold oil and gas positions, again for long-term fundamental reasons. When we retired (both of us are 65), we cashed out annuities given they were all dollar valued and dependent on their stock portfolios, neither of which do we trust today. So we are in a cash position with no debts including real estate being free and clear. For income we live off our social security and two income properties, one in a strong market area in Texas and another in Ecuador. We live part year in each, renting them out when not there. We call it real estate banking. Both are cash positions, furnished and it good upside value locations. For the most part we decided not to worry about the future and enjoy the simply pleasures life holds. -NL
why bother buying gold and silver at these high prices, when you can buy gold for $250 an ounce and silver for $3. Larrry, you may want to understand that a depression is unfolding in front of our eyes all around the world. Forget about inflation, while the depression is taking every asset class down. You may also wonder why the bashed US dollar is strenghtening all of a sudden? Most of the debt in the world is issued in US dollars. This debt has to be repaid, so institutions are selling gold, oil etc to pay back their debt in US DOLLARS. This is why the dollar is the best place to park your money. You may say that China will drive the commodities. Give me a break, the BRIC nations are 7% of the world GDP. You expect the ant to carry the elephant?
Although I have significant weighting in gold equities I am not investing now. Have increased my cash position and established ‘buys’ at reduced levels on selected gold and strategic metal stocks. I respect your views but not convinced it will play out as forecast - I see deflation before inflation.
Asia will not be the cure due to lack of transparency - outsiders will be left out on the “real” wealth creation and there will be growing discontent with those in power by the population.
I plan to ride the dollar up and buy gold stocks when it tops out. Anyone think this is a a good or bad plan?
HI LARRY: REMEMBER THE SONG, “WAR!! WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR………………….ABSOLUTELY NOTHIN”. SUBSTITUTE GOLD FOR WAR…………..IT WILL BE A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION WHICH IS FORTHCOMING………BUT WE ARE NOT THROUGH DEFLATING!! IF YOU WANT TO PHYSICALLY OWN GOLD, DO WHAT I DID, AND GET A RETRIEVER!!! SILVER IS THE BETTER HEDGE, AND IT IS LESS COSTLY.
THIS IS A TRADERS MARKET AND CAVEAT EMPTOR WHEN BUYING BULLION OR COINS…………THEY ARE NOT LIQUID! A GOLDEN RETRIEVER MAY NOT MAKE YOU WEALTHY, BUT THEY ARE LOVING AND LOTS OF FUN.
CONTINUE THE GREAT WORK!!!
Yes, I would suggest that precious metal investors begin scaling into gold and silver coins (keeping in mind that 1 ounce silver coins can be used for barter during a currency collapse, whereas gold coins will become so expensive that they should be retained for wealth preservation) and high quality mining equities for the long term. Should US dollar strength continue over the short term, prices of these investments could decline further affording an opportunity to add to your positions at lower prices.
Hi Yall.
copper is on my shopping list ,up here the Canadian cent is now copper plated . This is a very recent action that tells me it,s getting rare/expensive. Chindia needs the metal for infrastructure (wires in all their new and existing stuctures).I am keeping cash ready to pounce, maybe I should have already dove in may be you ,the ‘Wiess guys” may tell us the best time.
Opinions are like #%@holes, everyone has one. When drops below 1000 I may get back in.
The bottom-line:
Massive debt has led to this current collapse and high unemployment.
This debt will keep America stagnant.
This debt is controlled and manipulated by a few.
No money for serious R & D and economic innovation and new jobs in America.
A minority of Americans lived off the American majority
….as America lives off the planet.
Now the planet is revolting against America.
M
The dollar will run out of steam and fall on its face,thanks to the u.s. government,inflation will raise its ugly head,banks will coninue to have difficulties,so the potential for caos is still ever present.For me,gold and silver still remains a safe haven.Ron
First let my say that all investing info is a lie if the goverment or banks publisize the data! I have owned precious metlals since 2003. the biggest mistake i think i made is to have baught and sold in the beginning. I now buy more silver on a price pull back. I hold all my precious metals in my name. I agree with Mr. jay curtis,we should iniciate a law sute aganisted the CFTC to stop the ovecious manipulation in silver! Mr.Theodore Butler of Investment Rarities writtings have helped me imenstly through his letters.
Very interesting comments by your readers,thats what makes the world go round.GOLD,GOLD,GOLD,OH YES AND SILVER –IN HAND.I think silver is a sleeper and buy all you can afford now.Just my opinion.
Dear Larry,
It is not people who have gold or silver shall worry about their positions. It is those who dream of becoming millionaires through CFD are going to have a hell of time.
So sleep easy.
Best wishes.
Ping
I would wait on the precious metals ( and some of the basic materials ) because i believe the $ is due for a TEMPORARY rise. (the detailed reasons tooo long to discuss here) In The long run ,All materials will rise greatly- due to eventual physical shortages and inflation due to the deterioration of fiat currencies in the US and most other countries. In other words, Be like a spider - patiently wait, but be alert and jump when the opportunity arises !
Hi Larry:
Already have 10% of my non RE investments in gold and silver etfs.
Curious about your take on nuclear power and uranium investments
Does “loading up” mean more than 25%? The fact is, there have been times, when gold, silver and the two ps have not jumped enough to get the general investing public excited. In the last 20 to 30 years, squirriling away sizeable portions of those commodities has been a better choice than almost any other saving program, simply because it has been easier, safer and simpler to do than anything else.
Do I get the impression that you are backpedaling on gold? I am prepared to stay the course up to $1300 or more, if the trend accelerates, but my cost basis is $960 and I don’t want to lose current gains of gold is likely to correct below $1000.
I Live in Australia and have an international account with IB. Which means I can trade most any country. I hold about 30% in gold ETF Aust. and 15% in Mining Shares in Gold Aust. Small amount of Silver USA. and some 5% in Other resource shares. Reason is The debts of the US and EU including the UK are getting much worse each month. I also hold some long term High interest deposits.
I always look forward to your recommendations. I like Gold above all.
As with any investment, diversification between metal holdings is necessary. I have gold stocks, and the silver ETF, SLV. I like silver because it is not only a precious metal, but has industrial uses as well. To round out this portion of my portfolio I have the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund, not a barn burner, but a good “steady eddie”
silver- industry is picking up
Larry:
Yes it is time to add in gold and silver slowly. which I am doing.
Plan to add more both the same in forthcoming months.
My addition besides gold is also Platinum ETF currently in addition to Platinum coins issued by US Mint recently.
Thanks.
should we be holding onto the Gold and Silver investments even though they are going down right now?
Gold mining shares, silver and palladium shares, junk silver
I like silver now. Palladium and Platinum have had some runs. My choice is to buy DBA for agra commodities and continue to hold gold and silver mining shares. I think silver is probable a timely buy, but would wait for gold to go down a little further. This commodity volatility is scary.
Larry, I follow your regular guidance and that of the other Uncommon Wisdom “gurus” but want to suggest the best way to spend a profitable Sunday is to make an eternal investment through salvation by placing one’s faith in Jesus Christ. It is a heck of a deal and comes with a guaranteed return. Randy
I bought a truck load of a jr mining company and its down 50%, should I hold like some suggest? I’m very disappointed,Calvf is the mining co
A mix of short term (no more than 5 years) investment grade corporate bonds is the basis of my portfolio. Returns range from 5% to 9%. With individual bonds you get your principal back at the end of the term and meanwhile you earn the interest. Risk is that the company will go out of business (GM) which is why diversification among quality companies is important.This, with substantial cash and a portion in a mix of ETFs and individual stocks. With ETFs and individual stocks I set stops to limit downside risk.
I like silver best/ because its at this time easy to buy and to sell / a poor mans investment/ its uses are to many to list/ i see it being used more in the medical feild in the future/ if hospitals used it on door handles , it would cut so many infections being transmitted it would soon pay for itself/ just silver plating would do the trick/ p.s copper would work too but not as well
I have invested somewhat more than you have recommended in gold, specifically in gold coins. The rest of my meager (but thriving, thanks to you) portfolio, is invested as thoroughly as possible in your recommendations in Real Wealth Portfolio. I plan to perhaps add some silver soon. Thanks for your guidance and updates.
I like all the precious metals, but favor silver because of its use in “green power” applications.
On Friday Jan 29 China threatened to reduce its purchase of US T in protest to the sale of weapons between the US and Taiwan.
That may be bullish for commodities.
It may be time to diversify from gold into silver ingot/bars in the near future.
While I have taken your advice and am heavily in gold,silver,brazil,australia etc, these seem to fluctuate with the overall US market not as counter weights as I thought. Is this becaue they are in dollar denominated ETF’s? Should I be using other vehicles?
Do you think the commercial real estate market can pull down the entire economy if and when it finally collapses.
In looking for your opinions on the subjects of precious metal and resource investing I was surprised to find that your blog simply quoted the comments of your readers about their own investing positions and solicited more comments from others about precious metals. How is this better than a message board?
Myself, constrained by existing positions in underwater but solid energy stocks that I don’t want to sell for a loss, by limited choices in my 401-k which is now in emergmkt stock funds, st bonds and gic’s, about 8% already in a gold fund and mining stock, I have no extra cash to open new positions and would rather not sell good holdings at a loss to open them.
Why don’t you share some of your advertised experience with your readers?
Gold and mostly silver is what I intend to invest my $100’s of millions in when I receive them!
Then of course the pandemonium that China is going through for me to profit at that Chinese drive into the modern world, past former barriers with no holds barred!
Then some of the money will go into everyday commodities invested in some of the greatest corporations on earth right here in this United States!
Then it’s going to be: This is for investing, this is what we are going to live on, this is to keep you happy, and if you care to invest yourself, this is for you to do so!
Keep that American woman happy (we men call our better-halves) and she’ll always be at your side, and that’s the biggest investment of them all!
My problem is that nobody has a real outlook for GOLD and Silver at the moment,” everybody ” thinks gold and silver in usd terms are heading lower (at least short term) because of the sudden strength of the USD. When the tide turns gold /silver will turn higher again. Problem is the timing. How low will it go before taking (new) positions. At this moment nobody knows for sure and my feeling is ,that what in another comment was mentioned already:The analists themselves are not sure of themselves anymore and now they ask their customers. Afterwards the advice will probably be what most customers think.
Soon, but not yet, especially with Silver.
How do I invest in metals, China and India with all my money in only a Trowe Price 401k?
I believe Ferdinando C has it right. precious metals are telling us of future deflation, which is not good for the price of metals. Silver’s price never confirmed gold’s price as every other ad on TV and radio is another “expert” trying to peddle gold. This is when you know it is time to sell.
Good income sources are gas and refined product gathering and transmission companies that are paid a toll for transporting and can benefit from rises in petroleum prices. There are also some nice regional bank preferreds that have nice yields and selling at a discount to par value.
The U.S. stock market is in for a miserable few months before once again offering us a great upside potential later in the year. Hopefully emerging makrket stocks will once again lead the way and the positions I’m still holding will regain their former levels.
I was a little disappointed that UW did not see and warn us to get out of commodity and emerging market positions before this horrible adjustment of the last two weeks. The problem with charting is that you can’t see when something is going to break out through the bottom.
Still love you guys, but it wasn’t fun giving back a third of what I made last year following your advice.
Following your advice I bought 40% gold, 40% silver and 20% platinum. Why? because I agree with you, the dollar and the pound have to be devalued in order to pay government debts.
I am invested in China, South America, India, Canada, Australia, USA and UK.
For Income, I have a few shares in Limited partnerships, and GB Insurance Income Bonds which allow me to withdraw 5% of the fund tax free ( equivalent to 7% ) whilst there is a certain amount of capital growth.
A small amount of capital in margins, selling naked puts and in CFDs.
Hi every one,
In studying: (A) Richard Mogey’s 15 year US dollar cycle; (B) Robert Prechter’s group Elliottwave tracking; and (C) HSDent’s near term cycles, I believe we saw a top in the equities market mid January, and a little before this in the bullion market. What we may see now is only the dollar rising, and all equities and bullion heading down. The cycles suggest a DOW well below 6500 before the year is out, and into 2011 even a DOW as low as 2000 or lower.
For the more moderate investor, riding the USD up with UUP or DXDBX may be one acceptable strategy, as would be riding the wave down for the aggressive investor with inverse mutual funds (DXESX, DXRSX, DXSSX, etc…) and a small group of ETNs like BXDC, another. These funds and notes do not reset daily, so the compounding effects do not work against the investor when they spike up intermittantly against the longer term downtrend. I am thinking to hold cash and prift taking in actual T-Bills. I no longer like BIL or SHV since these ETFs are bleeding almost every week as they renew their ETF’s short term T-Bills increasing in price.
Also, I think most investment banks, commercial banks and local banks will go under over the next 18 months, so I will not trust any mutual fund or ETF or ETN to survive (although some are bound to make it through). WIth this attitude, regular profit taking is essential to avoid a fund collapsing with money left on its ledger. Then, as the smoke starts to clear sometime in 2011 or perhaps as late as 2012, most lending institutions will have collapsed, making the USD in even more extreme demand. Hence, 20 year AAA Corporate bonds with yields approaching 20% should be available. Even 30 Yr Treasuries could be up in the double digits depending upon just how bad this once in a lifetime Kondratieff trend change unfolds. I see many other bond offerings from now until the dust has settled from the trend change being in severe risk of collapse and do not trust any of them except T-Bills. There are excellent arguements that gold will head now to well under $700 and silver under $9 per ounce before they start to recover, maybe starting in late 2013 or early 2014. Note the major drop in Bullion during our last crash, and note the vaule of the USD climbing. Only this time, this phenomena is likely to last much longer (e.g., Mogey’s 15 year USD cycle). Mining stocks going into 2013-14 or so should be the best buys according to Edelson’s recommendations, but only after bullion bottoms. But be carefull now!!! Good luck to everyone, and hand on to your hats!
Although Gold has the historical and popular image, I have always preferred silver as it has many industrial uses that go beyond Gold, Platinum, and Palladium. Even without monetary demand, silver is needed as economies develop and grow, especially since it has electrical properties that unmatched, for the price, by other metals.
I believe the strength in the dollar is short term which will only push gold, precious metals, and real resources higher in the long term. If the economy can begin to add jobs, stocks will rise accordingly, probably at an accelerated pace. I don’t have much faith in this occurring as so far the stimulus money has not really bought us real jobs or jobs that will endure. We’ve only loaded up on additional debt that will be difficult to manage and will continue to have a negative effect on currency, and our standard of living. I believe strongly that as Americans, we are going to stop this political nonsense but until we do, I am buying gold, silver, and natural resources.
Larry
Right now, 15% of my stock portfolio is in gold exploration and mining stocks. Presently, I am 10% down across the board on these investments. My inclination is to hold them all..
I own kgc, gg, abx, nxy, slw, intc, bmy and myl. I would like to buy more kgc and add nxg. Would appreciation any thoughts on these stocks!
I bought a kilo of gold (on paper) a long time ago, pretty much at the top then. Kept it for some 20 years and then sold it for about the same price I bought it for. Some investment! At least it kept me from buying more all those years! So, I am the wrong guy to ask if it is a good time now to buy gold. My answer: NO! not with the gold price near historic highs. I know: this time it is different……
I’ll tell you in hindsight ! Come to think of it, why are you asking me? I thought you knew.
I TRULY BELIEVE IF WE CONTINUE WITH THE OBAMA S PLAN FOR THE US WE WILL END UP LIKE THE ROMAN EMPIRE,AND ENTER THE DARK AGES WITH MANY DIFFERENT INTEREST PULLING EVERY WHICH WAY. YES GOLD WILL BE KING
Gold will do very well long-term because of baked in inflation due to huge increase in money supply, but gold mining shares are superior to bullion because of their leverage on the gold price. Rather than speculate on individual mining companies — which amateurs cannot rationally do — buy proven mutual funds that do so — e.g. GOLDX and USAGX.
In the short term, If the economy picks up, velocity will increase and then inflation. If there is another downdraft, Fed will print more money, planting the seeds of an even greater eventual inflation and resulting gold appreciation. Eventually , if there is another downturn, gold will be seen as a better safe haven than dollars. Why this has not happened already, I am not sure.
If present income is not needed, I suggest having 45% of portfolio in gold; 35% in a hedged growth fund (such as HSGFX); 20% in very high potential special situations (such as REFR).
I think there is still room for a decline in precious metals, but I am ready and waiting to jump in. I am
investing about 30 to 35% of my portfolio thus I am confident of an upward trend. Gold and silver are
still my favorite.
What gold fund should I buy at this time.
Larry:
I bought Glamis Gold for about $1.53 a share. I bought physical Silver for $4.72 and physical Gold for $295.00. Back then I did not have a lot of money, but in my economic situation, you can say that I “backed up the truck”. If I had more money back then, I would have bought more. I held through all the pullbacks and stuck in there for the long haul. And it’s been a long one, but a good one. Pullbacks do not bother me much. I’m happy to be way ahead of the game on precious metals. Thank you for the good advice from about ten or more years ago.
I have about 7 % of my portfolio in gold stocks, the gold etf, and two different commodity mutual funds. I think that this gives me enough exposure. My overall portfolio is about 45% stocks, 7% commodities and 48% money market and short term fixed income, mostly corporate quality mutual funds.
what happens when the feds (as in 1933) want to seize my gold coins?
Gold and other metals are in a correction. I hold shares of SLV, GDX and GLD and am living through the pull back (isn’t easy/never is) and think the correction may continue in the short term. I’m not prepared to open new or add positions at this time. Silver may be the best percentage play, depending on how far it pulls back.
We have approximately 1/3rd of our portfolio in a mix of ETF’s, physical gold and mining stocks. Considering increasing this to 50% and looking to you to keep us pointed in the right direction.
Hello,
In looking at the dollar, which is really nothing more than a piece of paper that is “backed” by the sweat equity of the American worker, I don’t see stability in that arrangement.
Around the world we see fiat currencies in every country. Paper that is “backed” by the sweat equity of workers from around the world and again, where is the stability in that? It’s paper. It is just paper.
Additionally, we see countries like China, India, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Viet Nam, Indonesia, etc. with growing, building economies and they don’t much care that the U.S. is controlled by “progressives” right now and that the U.S. economy is going to remain extremely flat until we get them out of office. The world is learning to do just fine without the U.S. consumer and could care less whether or not the dollar remains the world’s currency standard. They are busy building their own lives and creating better futures for themselves - and they are learning to maintain healthy markets without a lot of American consumption of their goods and services.
Commodities like copper, oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, water, gold, silver, iron ore, etc. will become increasingly more valuable in a world that is leaving the U.S. behind, in my opinion.
Additionally, the world is becoming more politically volatile with the rise of militant islam and their access to billions of dollars of oil money with which to purchase arms and build their militant infrastructure around the world.. Western Europe is what, 20% Muslim now? This is a volatile mix. Not to mention China’s big military push….and Russia under Putin. Moreover these states are greatly encouraged by an incredibly weak U.S. president and liberal congress. Political unrest will increase around the world, in my view.
Financially, politically, economically, I see a long-term picture where commodities will become the asset class in which to most heavily invest.
Mike
I think Gold and silver are in for a short term correction but I think they are both a good for the long run. I think silver is your best bet because it has more commercial use.
Larry,
I look at gold and silver as inflation hedges. And I think inflation will rear its ugly head again in the near future. But gold and silver don’t yield anything and gold and silver stocks have very low yields. And ETF’s yield nothing. So,being retired, I prefer timber companies, PCL, yld 4.6% and RYN, yld 4.8%, and a copper miner, PCU, yld 2.7%.
I look forward to your comments tomorrow.
i
Unless it presents compelling value on a risk reward basis why buy you are better in cash.
Sell when you would not buy to retain your focus.
I only see value in gold/silver and some gold/silver stocks some very limited energy/agric stocks in the main and non US/Europe currencies at the present.
Just sitting on cash waiting for compelling value……..cash 4.5% one year deposits up to 7%.
I hold a 6% position in gold bullion but am concerned about the growing volume being traded. I also own an ETFthat has done well. I’m now wondering if anyone is auditing the gold supposedly held in storage and suspect the futures market speculators have oversold supply. How many commodity inspectors are there and how often are they verifying seller holdings?
Now I’m very light on gold and silver and expecting a downturn.The dollar seems to be strengthing and I think it will for a while.If you look at the euro things look bleak as i see it for some time. I think this will prove to be a buying opportunity later. I donot see how gold can NOT rise with the madness in washington. I also think silver will breakout perhaps stronger than gold.
Up to now I have seen municipal bond funds do very well for tax free dividents and income, but I am concerned about that going forward if there was to be a big financial upset again. I have also done very well with oil royalty companies …but the big question will they be good investments for the future??
Hi. Im totaly invested in precious metals IE: silver and gold bullion 20% and stocks 80% plus cash. Started buying in 2005. Its been very emotional at times and I screwed up becuase of it. Shadow Stats.com shows the way and f curse Jsmineset.com. where I got introdued to the metals and the honest side of the market. Larry
i owen about 25% gold and silver in soocks now should ibuy more
No Gold and Silver are dead right now as the dollar is getting stronger .
I believe Oil and Gas are better commodityes in the near future.
I can’t get over the nagging feeling that this may be the end of the “Gold Rush” of the last few years. I remember vividly the end of the big run-up in gold in the seventies. They were still telling us a hundred reasons to buy gold and then — whoop — it ended….
I know “things are different this time” (aren’t they always), but I have over 50% of my portfolio sitting in gold miners, an etf, etc and am very nervous.
I haven’t really felt this way until recently. Anyone else a little jittery?
Dee
I am 100% in cash. Gold and silver walk the stairs up but take the elevator down. The volatility is tough to handle. Also, if long term Treasury rates rise, which I think they will, the dollar will continue to go up and that mean the metals will go down. I think the Elliott Wave Theory has it right in predicting another vicious run in the bear market starting right now, that will last for a year or longer and take us down to the March lows. It is a dangerous time for investors.
I’d wait for gold to break $1000 an ounce. Then it’s time to go all in.
I hear so much reference to gold stocks as an alternative to physical possession in gold,after what investors have bee through in the last few years and the meltdown in the exonomy why should anyone trust ANYTHING OTHER THAN GOLD IN HAND when we see the dollar shrinking in buying power by the day and the stock market in limbo?I wil no longer trust paper investments of any kind including money in the banks at close to zeroe interest.sad to say there are not many options out there.
Larry Hi I have been listening to you for a few years now, and take notice, however I find the translation your predictions differ between countries difficult to translate as to what it all means for me here in Australia.
The influences of a failing US $$$ does not quite transfer back the Aus $$ in quite the same way particularly when it comes to daily Gold price.
I have taken the attitude that my investment in Gold is a longer term strategy and to not be too worried about the daily ups and downs of the market.
ETFs on Gold Mining companies in Australia are so influenced by the US $$ it is not nearly as attractive as one would imagine, as the AUS $$$ is high and this tends to cancel out any rise in the spot price.
I am only Trading Options in the ASX at present, so cant take advantage of your knowledge, hence not taking you up on your very generous offer to be part of your inner circle.
Am fairly new to this, so forgive me if my decision is a silly one in your opinion, have to do what I feel comfortable with.
As long as the US $$$ is being manipulated to the extent it is I feel jumping into the deep end would be pretty silly. Evidenced by the big falls over the past couple of weeks.
Mind you I am always open to suggestions, hence keep on rolling with your reports it is valuable advice always.
The Chinese Market is booming and feel they are creating a massive facade of show that will ultimately lead many people to loose money unless local and on the ground knowledge is forthcoming. This is just simply not going to happen…
I dont mean a couple of weeks holiday, that is just simply too nieve in my opinion.
That last comment is not necessarily aimed at you by the way.
Keep up the good work…
What are the some additional places to buy silver or gold from besides Kitco?
NO NO NO Now is not the time , The trend has changed , Dow breaks 10 month trnd line ,both gold & silver are in down trend, Look at your charts , Load up on inverse ETF’S for now. Look for a temporary correction next week.
I have reduced my gold and silver holdings to about 4% of my portfoilio. Both gold and silver are at significant support levels that if broken could lead to another 8-10% drop. Charts don’t say buy yet. Better to watch and wait.
Q: Is this time to load on gold, silver and other precious metals– or not, why?
A: Yes, this is time to invest on gold, silver and other precious metals because their prices are stable and are rising because the value of the dollar is going down. Also there is quite a lot of Universal demand for these metals
Q: How much of your portofolio have you invested. do you plan to buy more in the months ahead. A: I stiil have to make investments.
Q: Which are your favourites Gold? Silver? Platinium? Palladium?
A: My favourities are Gold and Silver.
Larry: My portfolio is a mixed bag. I have faithfully followed your love affair with gold….probably to excess (25%). Next big amount is short term Treasuries as Martin urges….although I just hate the zip interest rates. I hold a significant amount of CDs which provide rather indecent interest but better than Treasuries since they are heavy in my IRA.
Beyond that I have a sprinkling of stocks & mutuals that you and Safe Money recommend.$5 to $10 K max on each. I got spooked by the latest decline of the S&P and put 85% to 90% stops on every one of the stocks that allow it. (some don’t, at least through Schwab). I have hung onto my Lehman bonds in hopes of recovering the max the courts will allow. Right now, it is 20 cents on the dollar. That Lehman crash really hurt.
If gold dropped into the $900s I’d like to buy more but I am probably overloaded already.
My broker (Schwab) goes nuts about my unbalanced portfolio but they have an axe to grind, so I stick with the Weiss team.
I invest in some gold but more in silver! It is clearly the most undervalued.
I agree it is time to load up I loaded up about three weeks ago. At present I think I jumped it a bit soon, but better a little soon that too late. I have been doing rather well with my commodities.
I agree with Norman W. and would stay out of all U.S. Treasuries and favor the Chinese yuan denominated bonds or just the yuan itself as I expect it to appreciate against the dollar as it was prior to the financial crisis.
I totally disagree with Jimmy B, who must sell annuities. The equity-indexed annuities may show favorable historical charts because interest rates were previously higher and S&P options were less expensive. Today, the insurance companies are working with much lower bond yields and paying much more for the options. Ten years ago you could get 80% of the annual (gain) of the S&P, but now you can get less than half that. They are likely to average closer to 3or 4% over the next 10 years. Stay away.
I have bought gold in 09 and intend to buy more as soon as I feel its on its way up again. I feel gold will top out temporarily at 2000 sometime this year as soon as the dollar goes the way its inevitable to go, DOWN.
I have the feelingthat we are in the process of a massive transfer of wealth fron west to east, because western manufacturing in not competitive with that of Asia. We are seeing an enormous increase of the middle class in these countries which includes living standards that are presently enjoyed by the US ,Europe and other developed countries, and there are simply not enough goods and materials to share amongst so many billions of people. Therefore there will be endless conflicts and economic turmoil throughout the world. I believe that investing in gold,silver,platinum and precious metal ETF´s and funds is a good idea. Also fertile land will always be needed to feed all these billions, and of course oil and water.
Larry,
I’m am very hopeful that we are near the right time to invest more in commodities. My hope is that conservative politicians will get elected, but if that occurs I’m thinking that the dollar will soar and the gold rally will be over. Your thoughts. I have over 10% primarily in gold mining companies and ETFs that hold gold. Hoping gold will lead the way. C O
First, find a nice stable dividend paying stock with options. Buy puts at a price level you would pay for the stock. If you get the stock put you, you get to keep the put sale price which reduces your outlay, get the stock at the price you want, and then sell out of the money calls against the stock which adds to the cash flow. Do this a couple of months out to get the most for the calls. All in, you can take a 6% stock and make it pay 12+% per year. If it hits a call price, you get the profit and the dividends….. Nice way to keep cash flow up if you have the time to pay attention every week or two to keep up with the price fluctuations.
I am a British national living about 25 miles from London. For the past 40 years I have been an investor in UK registered mutual funds. I never buy shares directly but prefer funds because they change in value more gradually and it is easier for an investment amateur to follow market trends and apply stop-loss limits than is the case with individual shares. There is nowadays a wealth of information of the internet which enables one to follow what is happening NOW.
In the United Kingdom, by dealing through fund supermarkets - Fidelity FundsNetwork, for example - it is possible to switch between funds in one trading day (forward priced) and by means of a simple click of a mouse for a transaction cost of only 0.25%.
My method is to follow market trends which often go on for months, sometimes years. In times of uncertainty and when markets are falling I switch temporarily into cash or Money Funds. It doesn’t matter if I miss the first 5-7% of a market or investment sector gain, or lose 5-7% by not switching out fast enough at the end of a market trend as long as I gain a good share of the upward movement while it is happening. Last year, for example, some UK mutual funds investing in regions like.Greater Russia and China more than doubled investors’ money in 12 months.
Where gold and commodities are concerned, at the present time the UK JP Morgan Natural Resources Fund has fallen in value by about 17% since January 11. I do not intend to participate in this downward trend until it is reversed…
Larry & Others,
Perhaps it is good to look at income sources from the perspective of a total portfolio. I
give mine below in terms of percentages (using purchase prices). I welcome comments, particularly with regard to the use of prefered stock ETFs as income source (currently paying 7+% dividends). These funds dropped 20+ percent in price in the 2003-2007 period. I have not found dividend data for that period.
Regards……….Everett
ASSET TYPE % OF PORTFOLIO
Swiss Currency Fd 7.61
Precious Metal ETFs 26.07
Precious Metal Stock 15.01
Oil/Energy (US) 14.38
Micro Cap (Index Fd) 1.34
Emerging/Developing Economies 13.32
Income (Preferred ETFs & Total Return Stock) 22.26
I am interested in any comments on the Silver Corp metal stock (SVM). It isn’t covered by the analysts and I have had trouble getting information. If anyone can comment I would appreciate it. Tx
Yes, it is a good time to do so; I believe over the next 1-2 years we’ll look back at this time like I do now at the last big dip in AU to $845 in 2009; at that point, AU upside seemed likely to occur with either inflation, or a severe market downturn, and the case seemed likely for these metals going up with a rising market as well, as we actually did wind up seeing. It simply seemed like a no-lose buy, so I parked 14% of my total assets into AU, then. Over the next few years, at least, there seems to me to be many more postives to holding these than there are with certain other vehicles, ie., financials, many bonds, money markets, etc. I plan to add more to these positions as I am able to, slowly but surely, God willing….
Bought a foreign bond fund two years ago to weather the chaos of 2007-2009. It pays good dividends and grown. Several months ago, I also bought a corporate bond from a utility (water) that pays 8.5 percent monthly. They add stability to the gold, copper and platinum ETFs I hold. Looking to liquidate several big cap stocks now.
There is too much hype in the financial sector to take anyone seriously at this time.
There is far too much “this is the best deal” attitude. There is too much caveat: could be, maybe,
looks like commentary.
For one, it is time to sit tight and lett he hype cool down.
pitotubeLS
I have been getting stopped out on my gold and silver holdings. When I made my purchases of stocks and some ETFs I set a protective stop sell gtc for each long position. However, even after lowering my activation prices, I still was stopped out on many positions. While I know the purpose is to reduce my down side exposure it is still disappointing to have so many loses over a short period. What do others think?
SILVER FAVORITE
WAY OUT OF WACK WITH RESPECT TO GOLD. RATIO IS OFF.
THANKS
DANO
Have gold bullion securities, blackrock gold and general, blackrock world mining trust and a gold share, but no coins as yet, not being sure how to get them safely in UK. Certainly have gold holdings of 25% of portfolio, waiting to see if and when you advocate buying more than that. No silver. Have a mining share which inludes platinum.
Waiting for your reccos!
Gold and silver have been in a noticeable decline for at least the last couple of weeks, but I have no idea when, if ever, they’ll turn around. I assume that they will and when they do obviously I’d like to catch that. Therefore my precious metal holdings are scant, but if I were to know that they would again take off I would buy a bit more aggressively, then hold, at least for awhile.
Believe that no one knows the future; just as no one can read minds. Precious metals deserve a percentage of any portfolio. Load up on gold and/or silver? Place your bets. Prefer a horserace where a decision is decided in 2 minutes or less.
Just curious about group consensus here.
If silver & gold are being shorted/manipulated (respectively) by JPM and Goldman, and GLD and SLV are using manipulated paper market holdings to back their ETF funds, why not trade the (physical only) Swiss alternative ETF’s ie; SGOL & SIVR?
If you watch prices daily, you will notice that the physical ETF’s track Kitco’s prices more closely, both up and down.
In addition, these funds allow certificate holders to show up in Switzerland and redeem shares for physical metal. Might be handy if things get hairy. Also, who wants to feed the beasts that are beating down these metal prices?
Another interesting ETF is the Swiss physical platinum ETF = PPLT. Any thoughts on this newcomer? If supply/demand for platinum is in equilibrium now, what do you think will happen to price if a portion of supply gains favor to the buy and hold crowd?
Please leave your thoughts.
Larry,
I definitely feel precious metals of all categories belong in your portofio. I personally use 10%
minium and 15% maximum depending on where we are in the cycle. I feel silver on a percentage
basis will propably do better than gold but I have both. I feel good quality junior minors wiil out-
perform when gold and silver starts the next leg up. I also feel that the rare earth metals is another
area that would be a good investment.
Thanks for all your hard work on our behalf,
Dennis
I am currently using non-traded REITs…paying 6-8% dividends.
some have low correlation to the market.
Became “small fry” in “worldly” wealth ( lost heavily through greed).
Now living happily, no worries, recommend ::
- Getting out of - debts !
- Excellent health and other insurances.
- Guaranteed regular cash income to cover average monthly / yearly living expenses.
- Little cash on hand in case of bank failures ( temporary closures !)
- 50% - 60% of net worth in Gold and Silver coins - (easily tradeable for future needs
covering inflation ). - buying and selling. Consider cheap presently.
- Recommending energy calls (bullish)
- Above all trust God !
income investments 40%- dividend stars, corporate and muni bonds
i would buy more if prices come down another 10 % aleady have large position in both srocks and physical gold, ( 30 % of liquid assets) own gas pipeline mlp’s for income ( 30 %) , cash for balance for now….. retired
Gold and silver are great opportunities now. Since 2004, I have steadily accumulated physical gold and silver + mining stocks. Prices go up and down; however my gains are good.
Unfortunately, the fundamentals of our economy are not good and changes for the better will take time. Personally I do not think that most American people or the political parties have the will to make the necessary cuts in the size and spending of our Federal government and military in order to turn this economic situation around. It is highly unlikely that the $ will be the worlds reserve currency after our country recovers from this mess. This thought I read and it always comes back to me. “A great country needs 3 legs to stand on, (1) good morals, (2) a sound monetary system and (3) a strong military.” Two of the legs seem to be missing now.
HAVE GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS (30%), BUYING GOLD AND SILVER (25%) BUT WORRIED OVER BOTTOM FALLING OUT ON THIS MARKET. NEW IN THIS, AS I HAVE NOT FAITH IN THE US MARKET. ALSO IN CANADIAN OIL AND CHINA. STILL
CONCERNED.
WYN
About 1/2 of my net worth is in silver, gold, and coins.
I have been holding through thick and thin with no selling. Haven’t bought for quite a few months but if silver gets back to the $12 area, I am backing the truck up again.
I believe that the first area to sell silver just to recoup investment costs is at the $30 area.
Ultimately, I believe $50 is in the cards. Wish I would have bought a lot more at $3.50 and $5.00, but it was so hard to believe it could go so far. .
I am thinking it is a good idea to start adding positions slowly. It seems this is our first support area and Im looking for a move to 1025, 1000, then 950 area on gold. For silver 16.25, 15.63, 12.50. Silver is a lot more volatile in its swings but if you can handle the swings I think its probably got a better percentage move up long term.
I like all the metals GC, SI, PL, and PA although I am sticking more to GC or SI.
Currently I have only about 5% in gold, 15% in silver, 20% in many select commodities, 2.5% in stock, 60% cash waiting to add more silver, gold, and commodities. I am also very interested in real estate abroad…….brazil, uruguay.
H Larry, Greetings from Nova Scotia! I have about 15% of my portfolio in physical gold and silver- mostly silver. Approximately half my portfolio is in mining equities with most of them in junior gold mining stocks but some of the majors also. Here in Canada we are somewhat protected from the finincial difficultlies of the USA, have an abundance of resources, are still tied too closely with trading with the US. Jerry
I think that gold and silver are both in a very good buying range. I don’t expect rapid inflation to strike the U.S. soon, in spite of the massive printing of dollars, because of the current deflationary environment. Since the timing of the eventual inflation is problematic, and precious metals are currently cheap, I believe everyone without a core, insurance position should establish one now.
I have quite a bit of my portfolio in gold and silver ETFs, most of which I purchased cheaply nearly 3 years ago. I’m holding them and will only add to the gold if it drops below $965/ounce.I don’t own platinum or palladium, but will consider doing so if the price drops.
You are my favorite writer and your service is very worthwhile.
I am sorry to see so many new services appearing from Weiss, offering services that I believe should be included in the ones that I purchased instead of “A NEW REVOLUTIONALRY SERVICE THAT WILL MAKE YOU RICH IN 10 MINUTES!” (Not your quote…but typical of so many OFFERS that are so transparently driven to create profits for the Weiss group by using tactics of “sub-sets” of information. When we take into consideration the fees and expenses of purchased shares as important factors in selection, the costs of the services that we pay for, in many cases are greater than the trading costs of the recommendations! Yes, I know it is my choice…but it seems unfair to me.
And this trend is increasing all over the world, as a special form of investing by the Principals. Will there be no end to “New Services” for “New Subscription Costs”….for another “SubSet of stock maket investing by subscription ?
Good Luck and good health to you and the entire Weiss Group.
Can I buy stock in the Weiss Group where I think the profits really lie, without any risk at all? This is a general comment that applies more and more services of varying qualities.
I have been in gold mining & ETF, same with silver, a little gold bullion, India ETF, short 20 yr.+ bonds,utility stocks,& oil stock. So far not good. Pretty frustrating because I am able to get in correctly but fail to get out with a good profit when the market corrects. So I get myself stuck. I still feel very optomistic regarding my portfolio. Am I dreaming or what?
i have heard from your associates and others, including this blog that the dollar may continue to go up and then there is the opinion that it may go down again at the second half of the year. Thus gold can continue to go down and then back up at the end of the year. Why do people think that the dollar will go down at the end of the year gold will go up at the end of the year ?
I plan to invesr more in gold and silver. From what I read looks like there will be a dip and then go up ?????
“The” Wonderful Wizard of OZ.
Behind the smile of liberty, manipulation reigns as markets dance like chinese dragons on a drunken binge. Will our financial future be paved with “stones” from the yellow brick road?
Or will the dollars bounce kill the run to the Emerald City!
Roll the dice and place your bets, the carnival has come to town.
James
With all investments there is a balance to be observed to avoid the pitfalls of the swings, manipulation and roundabouts of the stock markets. A balanced portfolio with weightings is more apt than a speculative portfolio. The allocation of money to stocks and asset classes should be just that - to obtain a balance for your investments.
Mining and minerals should be an asset class in your portfolio, as should be, cash, foods, utilities and services - there is a difference between an investment and a speculation.
Having said that, I have already purchased my full allocation of minerals which represents about 30% of my portfolio and am holding 25% cash in reserve.
I have right now shared my portfolio in three parts: stocks in gold and goldmines, bluechip-equities and cash. I will load more gold or other precious metal as soon as I get appropriate comments from you Larry and from Claus Vogt.
Larry,
Thanks for my “Double, Triple and Quadruple your Money in the Gold Stock Breakout of 2009-2010″ which finally arrived.
As I have chosen to only trade the ASX I note with interest the 4 hot stocks you recommend. Also, it is interesting that of your 25 favourite mining shares listed in the report a good numer are ASX listed.
Yet you and your team continue to overlook our market in your Uncommon Wisdom briefings which I believe has the potential to match all comers in theshort and long term.
I do look forward to and appreciate the weekly videos presented by the Uncommon Wisdom team.
Regard
Keith
Hi!, All:
There’s one thing no use to be an American wants today: The Truth….absolutely nobody!
How’s that? The “fact” fact is the Constitution in Article 1; Section 10 calls for the Treasury Dept. to circulate specie gold and silver coins only into general circulation for day to day transactions…absolutely no redeemable notes such as failed with Bretton Woods or being proposed by such supposed patriots as Dr. Ron Paul and/or any others!
By our use of any kind of paper money or paper money substitues in any kind of a transaction, we are all traitors to what we say is our constitution and so, our traitor politicians, see that in us and exploit it through the Federal Reserve to the nth degree.
My audit of all of us encluding myself pluss our politicians/Federal Reserve System is simple: STOP using any kind of paper money & obey the simple mandate within the Constitution which has found all of us in disobedience trading paper money every day for goods/services etc.
We don’t have to pay the Constitution one penny to advise us but we thumb our noses at it. We buy gold and silver and provide brokers paper money commission; when the Constitution calls for it to be given to us FREE as specie coins throughout our nation. We have tried our best to call the gold and silver complex that’s been used as money for over 5,000 years only industrial metals which couldn’t be further from the truth & so now we are so far in debt to the perveyors of paper money that we are sinking into monetary oblivion fast. Nobody wants to get up & say we can’t buy our oil from OPEC, unless we pay in silver $’s or what is defined by law as: United States Of America $’s, because nobody wants the pain of that kind of real, immediate deflationary impact but unless we use the FREE constitution to resolve our monetary problems our traitor traits continue. Would China purchase Treasury Bills/Bonds with United States Of America $’s? Would you fill your gas tank paying for gas with United States Of America $’s. Could Wall Street and all brokers worldwide operate as they do using United States Of America $’s. We will “NEVER” have an honest economic recovery until we do use United States Of America $’s & so why do we everyday ward off facing our Forfathers’ blood laden Constitution? Who is benefiting & who stands to loose?
Napoleon threatened the French Ministry with the withdrawal of all Frances’ troops from foreign battlefields, if the French Mininistry failed to give him specie gold coins to pay his troops & the troops were paid in gold. This country today has troops in over 100 countries &, if they all had to be paid in specie gold coin, could Mr. Geithner, Mr. Bernankie or Dr. Obama deliver anything but some kind of a speach or issue a decree. There’s no way to solve our economic problems with cheap words. Gold & silver are listed on the Atomic Chars worldwide & never will paper money nor the cheap talk that always accompanies it be listed on any Atomic Chart. Therein lies the sharade/the ponzi schemes and the inherent failure of all irredeemable, fiat paper money yesterday, today & forever!
Which shall we serve today: costly interest rate bearing (debt) private, paper money based interests or our FREE Constitution requiring our Treasury Dept. to circulate FREE specie gold & silver coins for everyday transactions without any existing paper money with which to pay a broker or Wall Street interests etc., etc., etc.?
Cheers: Russ Smith, California
resmith@wcisp.com
I believe gold has a bright future, but it seems you missed one of the best ways to trade the precious metal. I trade gold on a FOREX platform (symbol is XAUUSD) and make several points a day. It’s really not that hard once you master a few rules. I should mention that Forex means foreign currency exchange. It’s a market where more money changes hands in a day than all of the world’s stock markets do in a year. However, it’s also set up where the little guy can play along.
Gold has a 50 pip spread which sounds outrageous at first. However, the 30 minute swings make this a moot point. This kind of trading is not “get it and hold it.” The average turnaround is 30 minutes. The average movement is about 150 pips in that 30 minute period. That means you average about 100 pips every 30 minutes. I may be using a lot of terms you are not familiar with, so let me illustrate by example.
Say you start with a 100k account and you trade a 1 lot buy at 1082.00. Your cost is $500 ($10 a pip * 50 pips in the spread). Thirty minutes later the price is 1083.50. So if you had purchased the actual metal, you would have made $1.30. Not very impressive, is it? However, since you are FOREX trading, your account has increased to $101,000. Let’s say you then close your trade and take take a 1 lot sell trade. When the price returns to $1082.00 and you close the order for another $1,000 profit. Two percent in an hour might sound suspicious, but I assure you it’s not. You can try it and see for yourself. More later.
The way I trade is far more complicated and far safer than the above example, but I want to keep it simple to illustrate the next point. I’m using live data as I write this. So let’s say you got confused and took a $1082.00 sell to begin. You would have watched as your investment dropped $1,500. Most newcomers would have taken a loss (or worse), but instead you simply waited it out until the price dropped once again. In this case, the price dropped to $1081.45 within an hour and you could have gotten out.
If you’d like, drop me a line and I’ll tell you where to get a demo account to practice with. It’s absolutely free.
I did subscribe to one of your newsletters and have found that it takes some time to arrive in Australia ….. and unfortunately most of the wonderful advice is difficult to pursue here.
I have to agree with Pam from Australia as I am also an Australian. The gold price in Au$ has varied very little over a couple of years now as it appears to be kept ‘in check’ by the value of the Au$ against the US$. When gold was around $850 our dollar may have been around 65-70c US and so gold was around AU1,250. When gold was US$1,050 then the Au$ was around 90c thus the gold price for us was still around Au$1,200. Therefore we have not made profit on gold. I am still finding out whether gold stocks will deliver for me.
So that is one reason why I have tried to write you an email to see if there is anyone as knowledgeable as you are to assist us in Australia!
I’ve been reading your material for well over 2 years now and have appreciated being informed and have found the information on cycles particularly enlightening.
The other difficulty I have found with trading other than in Australia is that trades cost so much more to do offshore. If anyone knows a cheaper way to trade then please let me know. I have only taken a small plunge into the market during the last 12 months and have not purchased gold because it has not changed much in Au$’s over the last couple of years. I think in the long run silver may be a better option in smaller denominations - perhaps ’spending’ money later!
I am yet to understand EFT’s. Can someone please tell me where to receive a really good lesson……..
Has anyone considered investing in Rhodium? At one point it was $10,000/oz and is now selling for around $2600/oz. It seems to have a large upside, and is actually the most precious (rarest) of the investment metals. The only source I have found for Rhodium ingots is American Elements who sells 2oz ingots for spot plus $830/oz refining costs (ouch!). Costs come down as volume of order goes up.
Currently 20% of my portfolio is in silver bullion and I am looking to bring it up to 25 to 30%. All my advisors recommend that I should have no more than 10% in this asset. I fear our US dollar will be nearly worthless within the next two years.
Greetings,
I have been hearing some talk about the US, Canada and Mexico forming a monetary union similar to what was done in Europe with the Euro. Apparently there is already a “proposed” new currency called the ‘Amero’ which would replace the US, Canadian, and Mexican currencies if such a thing were to come to pass (you can even see some of these coins for sale on EBay).
I have not heard Larry’s take on such a situation and what it would mean for precious metals and other commodities, especially gold and silver. It seems pretty evident that the price of gold is being artificially suppressed, and I wonder if the US government has some sort of a plan to keep gold suppressed until they can swap out the Dollar for this new currency. Would that keep gold down for an indefinite period of time? We did see the Euro soar in value in the years after its introduction…would the same thing happen for a currency like the ‘Amero’? I was very bullish on gold but I have to admit that this situation has me worried. Any thoughts?
Thanks,
SB
I think it is almost time to load up on gold and silver
probably good to wait till the dollar is falling
Hi Larry,
I have been a precious metals specialist for over 30 years. Started in the late 70s at Oppenheimer. Am now retired, and just happen to live right across the street from your Dad on Dundee. Sorry to hear that he has not been well. Tell him I wish him well.
Today, my portfoilio is made up of 2 parts. One is mostly MLPs for income , plus some other income producers that cover my living expenses. The other part is mostly made up of gold and silver mining shares.
Reason for this message is that you might or might not know Robert Friedland. Today, he is a multi billionaire, living in Vancouver. He ran Galactic resources back in the 70’s before the government closed him down because of environmental issues in Colorado. A few years later, he suddenly appeared with a company called “Diamond Fields”. I won’t bother you with the detalis, but besides the diamond situation in South Africa, he also owned some property in Newfoundland where they just happened to discover the largest find of nickel in the world. He ended up selling his company to INCO for $80 a share. I owned alot of it at $2. He owned 27% of the stock and became an instant billionaire. I retired that year, thanks to Robert, and evenytually moved to Gleneagles.
Robert came up with another company about 5-6 years ago called Ivanhoe (IVN). They owned a large property in Mongolia. They just happened to discover a major find of gold, copper, plus other basic metals. They have spent the last 5 years exploring the property and quantifying the find. They also took on the Mongolian government to get permission to build a mine. It took them 5 years to accomplish, but they finally got written permission to go ahead (at a cost). They expect to be in production by the end of this year. They have a 50% partner (I believe it is either Tech or Rio Tinto) who will be spending the money to build the mine. The stock was about $4 about 6 months ago, and a few weeks ago jumped all the way up to about $18 before selling off to about $14 where it is today. It made the big jump because or the permitting from the Mongolian Government.
Knowing Robert and his background, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sold his company to a major. Ivanhoe is going to be a winner one way or another. I am looking for $50 a share next year.
By the way, you seem to have shied away from silver mining shares. There are only about half a dozen pure plays, and I own all of them in a big way.
Be happy to share the names if you are interested.
Jim Bandler
Get out of the dollar. the day of the dollar is drawing to a close. Look @ you’re 401k now it isn’t getting any better and will get worse. The good ol’e Gov has has broke us . The U.S. is bankrupt do the math. They will take everything you have to try and pay the bill before they admit they have sold us down the river. Cash in all U.S. dollar’s while they are worth something. Gold, Silver,Platinum it does not matter as the dollar goes down they are going up & there is no top in sight.
P.S. Buy seed’s and a gardening book
Larry Its not grab my profits but grab my losses I came on board in recent times and bought CEO and other recommendations that i am now selling at a loss
the first thing one, in my opinion, should do is to understand WHY they are purchasing silver and gold. once that understanding is made, the rest is easy in regards to puchasing, holding and trading silver and gold.
for the last 15 years, my theory has been to spend a small percentage of all income i earn on buying either an ounce or two of silver and/or gold. i have taught my children to apply the same thoughts as well. two out of three have used this advice and have enjoyed the sense of confidence, security and earnings i rather had hoped for them.
my reasoning for this is the same as i apply to the purchase of cheap rehab properties, treasuries or any other investment catagory i choose to use. if purchased correctly and in small quantities, your risk is “controlled” and your reward is solid.
Larry..
I’ve been reading a lot lately about the China bubble, as we all have….however, recent articles have stated that it’s starting to mirror Dubai….for example, many of the new highrises in Bejing…impressive as they are…..are in fact empty. Other similarities as well….could you comment on this please? Are these reports simply exaggerations to support the bubble theory?
I’ve had a lot of people asking me about Gold in their IRA’s and about trading their bullion for Numismatic (Collector) coins. We are hard asset portfolio managers and can tell you all about it….
cQQQ and YAO for China maybe some CHU. MINDX for India. Rsx for Russia. and AUY for gold plus rgld for gold. BP and Petrobras class a…oil and fpra ford prefferred for auto. silver for solar panel coatings SLW… and PPLT for platinum….What do you choose for these areas???
My opinion is that, regardless of possible mild temporary slumps in precious metals, the coming inflation should guarantee that those who now buy gold or silver will be glad they did in 6 months, 1 year, or 3 years from now.
brian stubbs
I bought physical gold when it was $600 an ounce and physical silver at about $11.00 per ounce. Sorry, but there is no way I would add anymore now. I am afraid deflation is winning and that will not bode well for precious metals. That said, I intend to hang on to what I already own in physical metals.
I am beginning to wish I had taken some profits off the table in my gold and silver stocks a couple of months ago. Hindsight is always perfect!!
Robert sezs I believe the large mutual funds and hedge funds have the ability to conrol and manipulate the overall market. A small investor has little chance to protect their portfolio no matter what advice they receive from whoever. Probably the only long term play is in commodities such as gold and silver but what a ride we are about to experience in the global economic picture.
I always look forward to reading these posts and Uncommon Wisdom. Many times there have been Chinese stocks mentioned that were of great interest to me. Can anyone tell me how I can purchase stocks on the Asian markets or direct me to a place I can learn about that? Thanks!
Well, the fear factor got to me again last week. On Thursday, I stayed away. On Friday morning I sold over 40% of my stock.
Now, on Monday, most all are now worth more than my selling price. But I’ll try again.
Last week, you asked where our income came from.
Our Social Security and Pension cover our health, home and auto expenses and insurance.
Our stocks pay for food and fun.
We are on a diet, eating at home and reading books.
2007 was a very good year for stock growth, but we lost the gain in 2008 and almost broke even in 2009.
I still have my rose colored glasses on, but they have scratches and a crack.
I’m pro gold/silver….more so with silver….atleast 25% liquid assets should be in the bullion…
Silver is still the most under priced commodity in the world.
While the price of paper silver declined $2.50 in the last two weeks, for the first time ever, more silver eagles were sold in Jan. than all the silver that was mined. When industrial users of silver realize there is a shortage, the manipulation will be ended.
Larry, For fixed income I prefer the Canadian trusts. Was very succesful with Gold stocks in the
80’s and got back into them and silver last year. Portfolio consists of gold, silver, oil and fertillizer stocks located in Canada, South America, Australia and China. Became a subscriber to follow your
analysis. I think you’ve been dead on. Look forward to meeting you someday.
Not yet. Inflation has not started yet.
I agree about silver. It is extremely under valued.
I truly cannot understand people wanting to own or chase after any Treasury investments. They are simply dollar denominated and the dollar is worthless. Just remember that as the Federal Reserve prints money, that then causes dollar value dilution and in some cases wipes out any yield. The same holds true of Annuities, as well.
I am sure that dividends from the likes of Goldcorp and Agnico Eagle, along with some Limited Business Partnerships, in the commodity sector could do better.
I have a predetermined [target date] retirement muntual fund and one fund with non-U.S. mid-cap stocks. Investiging in Gold and Siler are good bets but when the economy tanks and the dollar is worthless all funds will be worthless. Gold and silver on hand is a good bet as well as bullets for trading currancy when we fall to the point of no recovery. I’m not a “survivalist” but when trading replaces currancy GOLD, SILVER AND BULLETS will be the new currancy.
Gold stocks as in great undervalued juniors who are also producing, like Metanor Res. are the way to go, shares at 50 cents each, with gold price going ballistic shortly as all the great analysts predict because of the total financial and monetary meltdown. It’s the 70’s gold rush all over again, like a $5,000 investment in Lion Mines at the low would have netted you $27 million at the high, so please buy me that 1 way ticket to the warm Tropical beaches, I’m ready now. HEHE
I am adding to my silver and gold etf’s slowly and adding mining stocks when thy take a dip
At my age, I try to be conservative. I do believe that Gold an other precious metals should be part of my portfolio and now hold 1000 shares of GLD, some mining stocks and ETFs. Other Portfolio holdings for income include about 15% in Muni Bonds, another 10% in Equity & Bond Funds, about 12% in Fixed Income Securities, 12% in Equities, and 17% in ETFs (includes Gld and other precious metals). The rest is in a Government Money Market fund, which is not providing much in the way of income. Have been looking to rebalance my holdings, with high priority on safety. Will be happy to see what you and Martin come up with after analysing all of the inputs from your subscribers.
Hi Larry:
I think we are still in an overall uptrend in precious metals if not continuing its “parabola.” If we will hit the rule of thumb for gold and stocks of the Dow “worth” 1 to 2 ounces of gold is an unknown I fear. For what I can control, I am about 60% into the metal, miners and mining supply equipment (like JOY). Also, and I think overlooked by many are the strategic materials, particularly the rare earths. Those are absolutely needed by any modern country for its electronics, super alloys (like berrilium and titanium) in things such as wind turbines and new solar panels. And this rare earth market is another market that China is the 90%+ player/supplier and has threatened to restrict exports more than once. That last threat is what caused my interest and research into this.
Uncommon Wisdom, Larry E, Tony S, And Sean B
I’ve enjoyed receiving the Uncommon Wisdom news letters for some time now, I see that a great trust
factor has come across with the quality and accuracy of your forecasts, recomendations, and solid
information. Thanks ever so much…its afforded me the opportunity and confidence to reshape my own position and liquidate certain assets only to reinvest them so as to improve portfolio standings.
Please keep up the Great work, your news letters are supreme.
I certainly enjoy and endorse your views. For many american investors the TSX composit insex XIU would give them 30% good bank exposure, plus 25% oil and gas plus about 20% base and precious metals. As an added bonus it would give a hedge against the U.S. dollar. You uncommon wisdim news letters give me confidence to stay invested in Canada.
First of all, I live in Canada so precious metal (PM) investing is different due to the currency exchange effect. In general, PM bullion investing (ETF’s or other) in Canada has been less profitable than in the US. For this reason, PM stocks are the best way to go in Canada. My preference is gold stocks and funds, although I also invest in silver stocks. I have about 10% of my portfolio in PM’s and I do not believe it is the time to load up. Many internet writers (and I read most of them), have forecasted significantly rising PM prices for a long time now. If one could have known say 3 years ago the changes that have since occurred in the financial world (failures, bailouts, deficits, etc.), one would have said that gold would be much much higher than it is today. The problem is the manipulated COMEX exchange controlled by the Fed mainly via J.P. Morgan (main shareholder). On this point, while I appreciate your work in general, why is it that you never (that I have noticed) talk about the absurdly huge short positions on the COMEX as often emphasized by writers such as Ted Butler and Ed Steer, not to mention GATA? If the manipulation has not ended by now, one has to wonder if it will within the foreseeable future. That is why I will hold my position and not load up until there is some indication that this COMEX control might be coming to an end. Any form of technical analysis must be questioned in light of what is going on. I am anxious to read your comments on this subject.
analysis:au tumbling to resistance 1045 sell 1035 G puts ,april 2010 now
analysis:au tumbling to resistance 1045 sell 1035 G puts ,april 2010 now
OK SO WHAT? I DID NOT DO THAT———— FIRST TIME
Consider purchasing Canadian Investment Trust, oil utilities, etc. and some Candian REITS. Returns, both dividends and appreciation, have been very good as well as exchange appreciation. With current strength of the USD providing approximately a 6-7% discount to CAD, and market correction, it may be a very good time to consider putting your toe in the water.
Tom would like more information on Forex trades discussed in your post. How can I reach you?
The truth of any markety lies in: 1) the truth of “real” money supply (fka M3) but it seems that M3 is no longer reported. Why did that, and still, happening today. Non-reporting is a major issue. Obviosuly M3 may be so large that it can’t be reported on an 81/2 x 11 sheet of paper!
Since age 18 I’ve been buying commodities, including Gold, Silver, Plat., because of its international value and strong, confident position as a “Util of Value” regardless of what currency is attempting to “daily price it”.
Along with food commodities, oil, natural gas, coal, coal-coke, clean water, clean medicines etc., no matter what we call them (regardless of language) and what we price them (regardless of underlying currency) common sense tells us that they have “human” value. Afterall, we’re the ones needing these staples of commodity.
This all brings me to the point of “who” is controlling what, when are they controlling it, how long do they want to control it (them) {short, int., or long run}. Well one has to look no further than to our Asian competitors as to see where they’re investing, even to our domestic U.S. saavy small cap, and large cap. corporations. ie: Why did a Russian based conglomerate (Severstal Inc.) buy Wheeling Pittsburgh Steel Corp., we don’t think it was for the steel operations (that they’ve since shut down during the last 18 months) but more for the coal-coke plant in Follansbee, WV, this gives Severstal the ability to ship back to Russia and elsewhere the coal-coke that is in SHORT int’l. and Russia supply. Our Commerce Dept. probably should not have allowed this transactiion to go through, but they did…
Always ask yourself, as Uncommon Wisdom Does, what’s the int. play and long term play for a commodity, not just what the “supposed papers tell” us to think, buy and consume. An ole wise man recently told me, “Take currency and buy money”.
God’s Speed and God Bless The United States of America.
Norma W. Brown
National Association of Senior Citizens (U.S. TM)
I have never held treasuries, because I never thought they would be as secure as everyone else thought. Inflation has been a major reason for this attitude. So the only “survival” strategy I have is to pick income sources, or hold onto long term assets (such as precious metals), outside of this country. But now that “strategy”, or attitude is being threatened by increasing US govt efforts to control or contain US citizen wealth outside of our borders. Is then the only remaining “strategy” to pick foreign banks or brokerages that are too small to interest our government? Please tear these arguments and attitudes into pieces, by showing me how I could do better.