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If there was ever a time to have a growth portfolio that gives you BOTH a powerful offense AND an impenetrable defense … THIS IS IT!
Mere days after Obama released his 2011 budget estimates calling for the largest deficits of all time …
Even as Washington is busy gearing up for its next record-shattering spending, borrowing and printing binge …
The newest unemployment reports show an increase in job losses … the Dow has plunged by over 200 points … and the Nasdaq is down nearly 50 points.
And adding to the frenzy, Moody’s Investors Services has warned that the greatest debt juggernaut in history is about to have some very serious, unintended consequences:
According to Moody’s, if Washington doesn’t slash these deficits — and fast — America’s triple-A credit rating is in grave jeopardy!
This does not threaten short-term Treasuries maturing soon. But it does raise serious doubts about long-term bonds.
Moreover, if the credit rating of the U.S. government bonds are suspect, imagine the disaster possible in junk bonds!
Last year, Wall Street pitchmen pawned off an all-time record of $147.7 billion-worth of junk bonds to investors … and already this year, they’ve dumped $11.7 billion in more junk on investors in a single week.
That’s another all-time record high — mostly in companies that were so close to death a few months ago, they couldn’t even fog a mirror!
The handwriting is clearly on the wall:
This bond market bubble is destined to burst just like the tech and housing bubbles before it.
And when THIS bubble bursts, it will automatically drive long-term interest rates sky-high — pure poison for an economy in as delicate a condition as ours is now.
THIS, dear Reader, is THE most important fundamental economic shift looming in the United States today.
So the big question is no longer “if” the bond market bubble will burst … or “if” the resulting interest rate spike will kill the U.S. recovery … or “if” U.S. stocks are vulnerable …
Rather the big question that remains — the one that economists can never seem to answer — is “WHEN will this fundamental shift hit the fan?”
Which brings us to today’s question-of-the-day:
How do you adjust to major fundamental events that are clearly carved in stone, when you don’t know WHEN they’ll begin to impact the markets?
Just click here and use the “comments” area to share your thoughts with us.
I’ll see you there!
Best wishes,
Larry
Related Posts
- Stop Washington before it’s too late! (04/12/10)
- Can Wall Street EVER be trusted? (02/05/10)
- Interest rates beginning to surge again! (08/06/09)
- Time to load up on gold and silver? (01/29/10)
{ 133 comments… read them below or add one }
Larry
Listening to Uncommon Wisdom you say you wouldn’t put money into a raising dollar. And yet, as a prime contributor to the Million Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio you recommend UUP. I’m confused here. What gives? Just how involved are you in the MDRGP? Thanks Wayne
Larry Edelson Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 7:49 am
I am not involved with that portfolio. However, in the TFA service (The Foundation Alliance), we do have a short-term position, long the UUP. Reason: Short-term, as I’ve mentioned in my columns, I am bullish the dollar. The long-term is still very bearish for the greenback.
So what does that mean for precious metals and foreign stocks if they are dollar denominated .?
What is happening to gold today?
what caused it?
What does your crystal ball think.
Impeach Obama. Elect Paul Ryan. Then replace half the lawyers in DC with CPA’s. Together, we’ll fix the deficit problem in no time.
I agree with Alan Greenspan, BEFORE he gave into the Dark-Side:
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.”
In short, I don’t believe there is ANY way to protect oneself from what’s coming. Given the fact, that the government can (and has before) and most likely will (again) confiscate gold when TSHTF, not even gold offers fool-proof protection.
Short of returning to honest money, it is naive, at best, in my opinion, to expect to find any way whatsoever to protect oneself from these thieves. But, whudda I know, eh?
Can we just vote Mitt Romney to save our nation like he did Staples, the 2002 Olympics, and other businesses?
Canadian and Aussie investment vehicles are looking pretty savory right now,although I’m not putting on my “chicken little” suit quite yet
How safe is TPINX?
We are surely headed for a big fall in all the markets, The world economy is in a deflation mode. I’m in the mood for shorting.
Well Larry, as a currency trader and as I saw news unfolding today, I bought Japanese Yen left and right. I did buy US dollars going for a quick profit since, someday, people will realize that the US dollar is not a safe bet anymore.
I will continue buying gold over time. I agree with you assessment. Gold decline is only giving us an opportunity to buy more.
Thank you,
Ariel Gelman
Don’t laugh — my advisor warned me of a crash and urged me to stay out of the market. That same advisor told me about when to get into the market again. My advisor? My dear wife who passed away in 2001 and with whom I communicate regularly, and not only about finances and investments. A spirit guide she introduced me to recently also, and emphatically, said, “Stay out!”
Larry,
I continue to be amazed at the level of incompetence leading our country. As if they will not be affected when they drive the country down. It seems the head is growing by the day and the spill over is all but certain.
I have been following your reco’s closely of late. Do you still favor DPTR, NGD, and TGB at this point? All of these are fairly inexpensive with some potential good upside. Are you still bullish on good balanced mutuals out of China?
Keep up the good work.
I have been slowly but steadily exchanging my excess dollars into metals for the past six or seven years now. With a bust in bonds & a spike in interest rates to come sooner rather than later, shouldn’t that prove very positive for metals & very negative for the dollar? I have been expecting this or worse for some time & feel the best place for cash is in metals or bare ground. Am I to far out in right field?
Hi Larry I hope i am reddy for almost anything i have corporation bonds and over 600 oz. of silvereagles&philharmonics in my box talk to you soon Phil
got out of my emerging markets today and put 100%of that into oil, left all precious metals alone waiting for a bounce up then planning on 100% into oil and energy .
Larry,
What is your take on the plunge in gold today? Should a person with a heavy portfolio of gold and silver be worried or excited?
How about TBT the ultra short bond fund?
I try to keep very diversified across the investment spectrum. I presently have US stocks, Int. stocks, gold and silver, cash, short term bond 2-2.5 durations GNMA. I know I can’t read the market in the future so try to hedge my bets by spreading out my risk.
I agree with your assessment that it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”. But that has always been the case. I read somewhere that “…the graveyards of Wall Street are filled with men who were right…but early…” The long-term trend is for dollar to continue its slide (or to crash altogether) but fortunes will be made and lost as this thing plays out. How does one position themself to capitalize on the vast amounts of fiat currency soon to be released into the economy, then quickly convert it to tangable property before the whole thing collapses? “Work hard and save”, practiced by previous generations, is not longer viable.
When and if they confiscate gold, then it’s into other precious metals and/or foreign markets that are doing well, Austrailia comes to mind along with China and India. That is why I also own some silver. But I don’t believe there is anything our government in Washington will not try, especially if its stupid and will buy votes.
Larry and Martin:
In this environment I sell down or sell out of any positions that will be negatively impacted by rising interest rates and tighten my stop losses on all other positions that are mostly gold (SIVR) and silver (SIVR).
My cash and Treasury Bills allow me to sleep at night.
Ron Summers
In one of your recent Real Wealth newsletters you mentioned some companies which store gold coins for those who wish to invest in a gold IRA. Could you please tell which depositors are the most reliable in your view?
Thank you for your prompt reply
This mess is not going to get better until someone teaches today’s “adults” that we got ourselves into this mess! I see few understanding that what we see around us are EFFECTS of prior CAUSES! People seem to try to process EFFECTS to conclusions! How can that be? An EFFECT is the result-of (something that came before the EFFECT and LED TO the EFFECT! An EFFECT is something we can all see. People do not seem to understand that if it is an EFFECT we do not like, then, it is there to try to wake us up to see that it is not “bad” but “good! It is there to try to get us to think about the situation, and in not liking it, dig back into the past to see where the present EFFECT came from! Only when you can go back and find the CAUSE, can you then tie that CAUSE to the easily seen EFFECT, and in doing that, you can then start solving! How many leaders –oops, sorrry! “l;eaders” do you see around us who process thoughts from EFFECTS back to CAUSES, put together, and only then say, OH, I GET IT NO W! and then start solving! All we do is toss money at everything! And the more we toss the quicker will come the combination of both DEFLATION and INFLATION, both working at same time! And that is NOT going to be pretty, believe me! (I am 83, so I can look back 4 generations and have experience about 60 of those years observing as an adult-in-process (we never get totally there!) and there is no longer morality or mental or physical discipline in our society RELATIVE TO there was 40-50 years ago! How can you teach people who have never seen discipline (money, mental, physical) why the lack of that is the problem here!!!!!
Larry,
I have a fairly large position in Ultra Short Treasurey ETF (TBT) and I looked like a genious on Wed and then today the position went South on strength in the 10 year bond. Still looks like interest rates must go up so I’m hanging in there with it. I’ve been long TBT for sometime and recently upped my position when it sold off to 46. I’m also long the PIMCO short term bond fund and the PIMCO TIPPS fund. Can’t see the short term fund getting hurt, but how about the TIPPS fund?
David May
I have a question. When the bond market bubble bursts, interest rates go up. If I own a mutual fund of bonds, the value of the fund drops, but doesn’t the fund buy new bonds at higher yields, and the yield of the fund goes up? Plus, if I buy more shares at the lower price I get a second boost in yield. If I hold on to the fund and buy more shares at a lower price, don’t I come out ahead in the long run?
David F.
i NEED MORE WEALTH, I like what I have but am missing an etf that tracks inverse interest rates.
talk about a rock and a hard place, interest rates just have to go up, so what happens to residential and commercial mortgages? not pleasant to contemplate
I’m at 25% in Gold and if the smart guys are going to continue putting their dollars in dollars, I’m gonna be deeper in Gold darn soon.
Why don’t the so call experts in Washington just admit that they done know what they are doing.Common sense says we are broke so why get more in debt. THEY NEED TO PRAY ONLY GOD CAN WORK THIS OUT
Buying gold and oil on dips, too much volume on the down side today, will wait until it starts up and then buy.
Larry, I have $16K invested in G.E. bonds at 6.750% interest. Right now they’re worth over $17K. Will the coming bond crash affect this type of bonds as well? Could you comment on this in a future column?
Larry: Appreciate your e-mails very much. Thank you.
However, what I believe needs to be done is for people such as yourself that are well known and respected to ban together and take out full page advertisements in as many as possible major newspapers and not so major news papers in the U.S.. Individuals such as Paul Volker, Warren Buffett etc.. What is needed is to put the fear of God in the average americans mind as to just what is happening to our country; with easy to understand facts as to what this is going to do to them personnaly and what they need to do. They need to understand in no uncertain terms that the majority of politicians of today that we have sent to Washington are out to destroy our country. Look at what the democrats are doing with the buying of votes etc.. You and others like yourself send emails to individuals such as myself. In turn we write to our elected officials with no results forthcoming. The people of this country of ours, need to be marching in the streets all over this land. If necessary they need to shut down the government. If they do not do something of this nature Obama and his lackey’s will continue on their path to make us into a third world nation. I firmly believe he and his administration want this to happen.
When I write my congressman/senator they most of the time, do not even address the questions I posed. The apathy is so great that one could walk on it. Just reflect back on the town hall meetings from last year. Many of the elected officials ie Sen Spector for one did not have their minds changed by their constituents because they were more interested in continuing to shovel their Pelosi/ Reid pablum down our throats.
If nothing can be done to change the mindset of our progressive/socialistic government officials we may looking down the road at another “1776”. I personaly hope and pray that this will not be the case.
One other thought. I am of the belief that the buying up of our real estate by foreign governments/nationals for example may not be a bad thing. Let the whole world buy up our country the infusion of their money into our coffers may very well get us out of debt. Once we have made trillions with these transactions. We do to them what they have more often than not, done to us. We nationalize everything and send them home with nothing. Think of Saudi Arabia and their oil fields. We need to play by their rules not ours. I am sure you will find many fallicies with what I have written. I am however, willing to listen to your ideas on how we can change what appears to be the enevitable if we continue to pursue our present course.
I would be willing to contribute $500.00 to an educational newspaper campaign that will instil the worry/fear that appears to be needed to jar the majority of our fellow americans out of their complacency and into action that will then transform itself into the hearts and minds of elected politicians to keep us from becoming a France, Sweden, Gemany etc..
Sincerely,
Dave
Hi Larry: Thanks for the email. I believe I have previously mentioned that I have lost so much money on everything except CDs, I had to do some serious thinking regarding what I could invest in that people would always need and therefore my risk would be reduced to a minimum. After much thinking I arrived at the conclusion that no matter what happened, people would always need three things, food, water, and some form of energy. At the
current time I have no money invested in anything because of major capital needs of a personal needs. Diamonds rarely depreciate but they appreciate at a very slow pace. Everything else including metals are quite unstable and can’t be counted among the things with a NEAR guarantee of continuous
growth. As for me I’ll continue to stick with my safer but guaranteed future needs. Thanks Again Ray Roberts
I am not moving into anything new until after 4-01-10.
I have stop-loss orders on almost all of my stocks. Haven’t looked yet to see the results.
You but Gold!
Good question. take gold and silver. Both are hedges against inflation and you would think that they would be a good investment with the debasing of currencies With our monetary policies(QE) and Goverment spending you would think that the $ would be lower. The fact that investors go to the $ when other countries are in trouble is ridicules. Our $ is in trouble also, It is all relative. When investors get spooked on the $ then will the move will be into gold? These markets are too easily manipulated by hedge fund managers and countries.Do you think China manipulates the markets and gold?
Quantitive Easing in the UK is now getting out of hand. To date the Bank of England have created in excess of 200 billion £s Stirling out of thin air. The govenment is broke. All they are achieving is to fuel inflation. We are hurtling towards a post 1st World War situation that Germany found themselves in, with uncontrollable inflation or a later example Zimbarbwie.
Excellent question Larry, I don’t know. I think we need your crystal ball.
At what price do you say buy more GLD? Am I better off to buy GLD then the gold miners? Is GRS your favorite miner? How about GOLD? warren b
History has taught Japan about how difficult deflation is to break.
The only question is whether the US and the world can successfully engineer inflation from the deflationary wave.
Before it’s all over, the US will have a lower standard of living, but it will still be better than the mean.
A barbell approach might be to hold some resource/commodity stocks, and BBB or better intermediate bonds.
The best way to side step a bond crash is to have a “bullet-proof” Portfolio–a term used by Sir John Templeton. This means having a well designed asset allocation, which might vary according to investment climate. It is also important to have–and maintain–a good deal of cash on hand for tactical entries and exits into rising asset classes when they emerge. This is a very tricky thing to do, since caution is harder than risk taking for most people.
When commercial mortgages and other lending vehicles have an interest rate that climbs above 10% most of the property that was bought 4-5 years ago will go into foreclosure. Most of the folks that I have dealt with used 3 and 7 year ARMs for their commercial property because they figured into their plan that they would be able to withstand a rate increase. I don’t think that anyone had really anticipated that we would be dealing with falling sales, decreased profitablity, AND real estate that is worthless. If this is what is on the horizon most commercial lenders simply will not lend. They will strategically drop away from commercial lending simply because it will not be lucrative for their investors. If commercial real estate tanks any more than what it has we are all in deep, deep, trouble.
I don’t think anyone knows what will suddenly send the market (and the economy) down the cliff. I don’t think anyone knows where to hide. I certainly don’t. Scattering assets to limit the damage seems the only protection and this goes against what I’ve always believed. I still believe I don’t want anyone between me and my money. Funds and the other “group” investments are more pot holes.
What do you think the revalue of the Iraqi dollar will do to this dire situation? If you purchase gold is any old bank a good place to keep it? Might be a dumb question but I never thought of buying a lot of gold…
After listening to the pundits extolling the wisdom of having gold, I started buying it. Now I realize that we, the small time purchasers of that yellow metal with no real value apart from its scarcity are being played for mugs by the Shysters who are the offspring of Shysters since time immemorial… the money changers in the Temple that Christ chased out comes to mind. I’ve watched gold go up and down like a Yo-Yo until it is now glaringly obvious that when enough rubes have been convinced to “invest” their meager savings by the sharpies to drive the price of gold up, the “Wise Guys” simply ladle out what has been put in.
A little time is allowed to pass before gold becomes the THING again, then the snake oil hucksters roll into town once more and the schemes and scams start all over again.
As Mr Rodgers would have asked, can anyone in the neighborhood say… S U C K E R ?
I would like any information that you might have come accross for the Iraq Dinar. I understand that the Dinar is suspost to RV or RI today and that Maliki has announced the rate. Please acknowledge anything you might have on the Iraq Dinar
Thank you
The entire financial and political system must be purged. There is a cancer present in the form of greed, that has become a “norm” in our society, and politicians, bankers and anyone else who had the opportunity to ride the gravy train, have done so at we the “tax payers” expense. I, like you Larry, am using these pullbacks in the metals prices, to continue to add to my my portfolio; especially silver. If things continue down the path they’re going, we’ll be using the metals not as a means to protect our wealth, but rather as a means to put food on the table. This happened before in ancient Rome, and as it usually does, history is repeating itself. After all, are we not the modern day Rome?
Every one seems to want to stimulate the economy. I think the economy is too stimulated already. This country is enormously productive, maybe 20 times or more so than 200 years ago. There is no reason why we can not go to a 6 hour day or a four day week. That much work would provide us with all the necessities and all the comforts we need, and most of the luxuries. I suspect it would even provide us with gambling casinos, mansions, monuments, and even million dollar bonuses to parasites. If some of the last did have to be cut back on, I would not be distressed.
A mandatory 6 hour day or 4 day week with time and a half for overtime in corporations would solve the unemployment problem over night. With the extra time people could enjoy themselves. There is no divine law of the Universe that says we must work exactly 8 hours, not a second more or less, each day. Indeed it is said that Kellogg cut the work week to 30 hours without loss of productivity [Schwartz]. The important matter is for everyone making money, no one destitute.
If there was not enough production that way to make gambling casinos, no problem. People could gamble by card games in their own homes if they wished. Of course it would be necessary to HAVE their own homes for that. Foreclosure could be prevented by the federal government paying the full amount immediately (thus bank liquidity solved) provided the owner agreed to pay back by an agreement to pay 20% or so, or whatever was enough, additional income tax, which would include principle amortization, 6% or so interest, and cost of life insurance to cover the remaining principle. That would eliminate most foreclosures. It would also eliminate federal loss with citizens having a whole life time to pay back if necessary.
Sincerely, Charles Weber
Schwartz M 2009 Quick study: The future of work. Reader’s Digest (June) p 120-123.
stocks, bonds, etf’s,cd’s , options, future contracts,and fedral reserve notes are all synthesized and only exist on paper.If you can’t hold it and don’t own it it will probable disapear when the treasury bomb hits.
Hi, Larry:
I find your uncommon wisdom reports invaluable and I appreciate the way that you teach us what to look for in the technical charts. I also highly value the research and recos that you give us in your Real Wealth Report. Keep up the great work.
I am pretty broadly invested at this point with an emphasis in bullion, mining stocks and cash. The breakdown is approximately: gold coins (12%), junk silver coins (12%), a mix of mining stocks and ETFs (14%), energy stocks (10%), foreign stocks (6%), financial stocks (1.7%), miscellaneous stocks (9.7%), long the dollar (1.3%), short stock and bond markets (3.8%), preferred income stocks (6.4%) and cash (19.7%).
I have stop/losses identified for all of these except the physical gold/silver and mining stocks which I will watch for your sell recos. My plan is to shift out of stocks and put more into cash, bullion and market short positions at the right time, which I imagine will be soon if things keep going the way they have been this week. I will follow your advice as well as that of Martin and Mike in your newsletters as well as my gut feeling. But my goal is to be more on the conservative side to minimize risk to the investment capital that I have left and to position myself to take advantage of the turn when it happens.
Keep up the great work Larry!
What I want to know is when are the people going to wake up and fire the President and the senate, Congress and The House. Obama needs to be taken out of Office before he turns the White House
in to the Muslim House.. He is associated with all the riff raff in Chicago, The Lady and Man that
supposedly got into the Whit house for his party, He knew them in Chicago. I have a picture of
them and Obama in a party there. And the are taking the 5/th at their trial. Makes you wonder.
Obama also was adopted by his stepfather in Indonesia, So his real name is Barry Soetoro,
It has been obvious for a long time to me that anyone who knows anything about value realizes that whatever has been going on the past 8-to10 years has been constructed to devalue anything valuable. Not just money, currency or goods and services but moral and motivational fiber of human beings.
The power brokers know that the biggest controlling section of everything since Gerber Baby products to big fast cars to luxury homes to stock market investment to bond investments have all been influenced by the WWII Baby Boom generation. Now that that generation is about to sit back and reap the rewards of their past deeds, no one is willing or perhaps able to pay for it.
It’s all part of the grand scheme that was set in motion long before the twin towers were imploded. No one is going to have the formula to fix any of the shenanigans yet to come. Just know the purpose is to downsize most of what the Baby Boomers have before it’s over and done with.
LARRY , OF COURSE BEING AN ELECTRICAN AND AN ELECTRICAL CONTRACTOR FOR LONGER THAN I I WANT TO REMEMBER . THE MARKET IS LIKE THE ELECTRICAL BUSINESS WHEN TIMES ARE GOOD YOU PUT SOMETHING BACK FOR THE LEAN TIMES. THAT IS SOUND ADVICE IN THE STOCK MARKET
Hi Larry :I read your article and have been following the matter myself through various articles and recently read that they might attempt to nationalize 401(k) retirement funds in the future.to take care of the current national debt. How possible is this? If it were to happen I do not think it would happen over night. I have been following the dollar as well up and down through FOREX and it is not doing well from what I am reading. Some articles tend to be way more alarmist than others so one must be careful to have the right research. Some are saying a gold boom while; others a are saying it is to rise again. The question here is timing. if it drops how long will it stay there? Most are suggesting a minimal time period. thanks for the advice.
Should we be concerned re. our mutual fund deposits ?? I read somewhere this could be risky down
the road re. withdrawal requests because of new regulations the feds are putting in place with financial
institutions.
Are there seasons on your Planet Joe Atkins?
What would be the sign(s) and the time of BOND MARKET BUBBLE, that could be activated in what kind of circumstance? I am worried that I am currently holding a substantial amount of BAC Corporate BOND:06/15/2013..
My head is spinning ! I’m counting on you to guide me through this mess !
well, I told you last week what is with this administration : suicide, stupidity.
Gold is the best position, no matter how low it might tank, certainly not lower than the dollar.
Luckily, Europe is having problems too = that is the result of 40 years of hard socialism,
costly immigrations, exactly what this ADMINISTRATION WANTS HERE.. It took Europe 50 years to slip off the cliff (it wont take that long for the US) All along the past hundreds centuries, europeans learned how to face what hell was coming : GOLD, … own a small piece of land to live of, choice of
miserable small cars, scooters, bikes. SAVE SAVE SAVE …can economy grow ?
All this, not good for China…who is going to buy their stuff ? the chinese poeple ? even poorer…
With all the talk today about money problems I feel we should reflect to history for some answers. Here’s what John Adams had to say about the subject of money: “All the perplexities, confusion, and distress in America arise not from defects in their constitution or confederation. Not from want of honor or virtue so much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation.” It is not widely known that the Constitution deals with economics, and most people are surprised to learn that the purpose of the Constitutional Convention was to “take into consideration the trade and commerce of the United States,” as stated by Alexander Hamilton in a report to Congress in 1786, recommending that there be a convention.
It was the purpose of the convention to establish a currency consisting of the precious metals. These were affixed by a permanent rule forbidding the use of the perishable medium of exchange such as certain agricultural products recognized by the statutes of some states as tender for debts, or the still more “pernicious expedient of paper currency” as President Andrew Jackson stated in his message to Congress on December 5, 1836.
Gold and silver were always to be the people’s money. There is only one way for gold and silver to get into circulation and that is to go find it, dig it out of the ground, and then take the bullion and have it coined into money at a U.S. Mint. (Monetize it).
The Constitution clearly states that Congress was to do the coining (monetizing) so that all people would be assured the weight and purity was correct and that the value was in accordance with the guidelines set forth by Congress.
On December 16, 1789, the Pennsylvania Gazette had this to say: “Since the federal constitution has removed all danger of our having paper tender, our trade is advanced fifty percent. Our moneyed people can trust their case abroad, and have their coin into circulation.”
Before continuing further, I want to strongly emphasize the words “DEBT-FREE.” It’s not just that gold and silver was used, but the fact that gold or silver coin was brought into circulation DEBT-FREE. This is the key to free money.
Using debt-money is kind of like being pregnant. It starts out with what seems like great pleasure. Bank credits enable people to write words and numbers, or simply say, “Charge it” for goods that yesterday were only wished for. This enhances the illusion that little labor brings great rewards.
Since they don’t understand the dangers of collateralizing (mortgaging their borrowed words and numbers with real property), the day comes when they realize there is so much debt that it is impossible to pay. That’s the stage of pregnancy when the baby gets so large that it is very cumbersome to carry. Then comes the great pains of the birth.
In the case of our vanishing freedoms, the difficulty is to understand that our debt-money system simply cannot function much longer. If the present pain brought on by the use of debt-money brings to the people an understanding and the return to honest, debt-free money, then the freedom is worth the pain. If not, it is like having a stillborn baby. You have the pain and suffering, and still lose the property with nothing to look forward to but another cycle of rising debt and an eventual collapse. Like the coming of the baby, the exact time of a collapse cannot be accurately predicted.
As John Maynard Keynes states, and as I have shown, the easiest and surest way to destroy the peoples’ right to life, liberty, and ownership of property is to corrupt nation’s money. Then, common sense tells us the easiest surest way to restore those rights to the people of this nation would be to restore an honest, moral money system.
I think that if the liberals want to have any kind of a future, they’re going to have to throw Obama under the bus. There is plenty of reasoning for it. No birth certificate, no school records, international travel during school years without a U.S. passport, etc.
My money says it will happen before mid-term elections. Let us pray.
I never liked the bond market. don’t see what all the fuss is about because I don,t have bonds now or will I in the future. A bond is no different than treasuries anyway, just more debt that must be paid back. I agree that there is a bubble that will break when interest rates rise. The storm is about to hit the fan.
Give me real money, gold or silver, and stay out of debt.
The trends tell us all we need to know. There will be no recovery, only more of the same for decades. We will not, nor can we ever recover to the 2007 levels again in real terms. The Feds and Banks worked together to create FUNNY MONEY to fuel the economy and can not pull this trick again. The banks are overpriced for the long haul and consumption spending will never gain ground beyond inflation.
The party is over and with the 18% of the GNP spend on health with the govt picking up half the tap and the 70 million baby boomers lining up to retire on SS and Medicare the real deficit increases are yet to come.
Even when we find a way to use our means to “wiggle” and win financially, we are all BIG LOSERS in the long run, with the “Progressives” intentional torpedoing of capitalism, & complete disdain for The Constitution. Until we wake up & DEMAND “honest broker” representatives in Congress—(By Cleaning House), making, or holding on to wealth will be “a rapidly moving target”. Both political parties are “the problem”—Corruption by INCUMBENT (Career) politicians, and 35,000+ paid lobbyists, using OUR MONEY to “pay off” contributors, and consolidate their power. GOOOH.com is the common sense solution, when enough of us “Get It”. Rescuing ourselves from Communism…Returning to Constitutional Small Government, featuring States Rights, Sane Spending, Fair Tax, Term Limits, INTEGRITY with Common Sense, & “Something That Resembles Capitalism”…..THE BUCK STOPS HERE, with all of us…..GOOOH.com is a great tool, IF ENOUGH OF US WOULD USE IT. When we have “slept” & lost America–The Beacon of Freedom…..Where do you go?…How do you protect those assets?
All I know is what I read and I am tired of hearing my Edward Jones broker and my accountant, both conservative Republican’s, tell me I am buying into this whole fear thing and “that will mever happen”. Hello???? It’s happening. It has happened. And it will be worse next time. They are so naive. I have to follow my gut. Sold off about 1/2 of what I have in about 5 Mutual Finds yesterday. I have ZERO faith in the market at this point. Bought some gold last Decemeber. Now what. Plunking almost eveyrthing in laddered CD’s at this point. I know, I will never keep up with inflation. But at this point. preserving principal is my main goal.
Larry, I also own some CA muni bonds and I want to dump them. They were a good idea at the time, but times have changed. With CA bankrupt I am no longer comfotable holding them. Will a bond market crash affect them too? Your thoughts?
Since when has the economy started from the top down. Well it’s happened. Right now I’d rather sell refrigerator to Eskimos than trust wall steet. TL had it correct. Only get rid of 9 of ten lawyers in Washington and VOTE OUT ALL OF THE ECUMBENTS..
To me the 1970’s seem like yesterday. After the oil embargo Bond rates skyrocketed and prices crashed. Mortgage rates zoomed to 18%! After the 2008 crash I sold ALL bonds and haven’t bought any since. I have since made incremental purchases of gold and gold stocks on declines and invested in natural resource funds. Recently I have invested in Asian stocks and mutual funds, which have done reasonably well. With the recent decline in the market I have not sold, nor do I intend to sell any of my investments because I have carefully selected a range of stocks and funds to achieve some semblance of diversification. I’m invested heavily in water, which is an essential commodity. I do not intend to buy any bonds any time soon, preferring to wait until bond rates at least exceed 10% or more (and even then I’ll carefully evaluate the risks).
I bailed out of TIPs in 2008. I consider ALL government statistics as manipulated. This is especially true of data on inflation. I have tried to invest in Canada and other countries and emphasized dividends.
I like the short treasury bonds ETFs; TBT and PST. I have been buying on the dips.
It’s said that even at zero return the smart money is going into treasury notes just to sit out all of the confusion and uncertainty. If the dollar fails or the government as we know if fails, it would seem that your treasury notes would be worth nothing anyhow.
At this point in time I don’t care about growing my money, just protecting what I have and if inflation is going to devalue my money then what can I do? I’m 68 and just lost 11 million in real estate investments leaving me with 1 million that I cannot replace or afford to lose. How can one protect his savings against both loss and inflation?
Larry, There are two major things happenning soon. 1. There is a G7 meeting this weekend to discuss the YUAN evaluation and there is a flight now to yen and dollars. 2. March 31 the Treasury ( what treasury we have GOLD i guess) is going to stop STOP REVERSE BUY BACK MORTGAGES 9whatever that meens. maybe you can explain the real impact to me. My concern is the uptick rule has not been passed yet and I hear derivitives are alive and well and booming. maybe you know more about these right now. The PIGS in europe are a factor in the euro and i am glad i don’t have any euros right now. I guess I have about 40% in cash right now waiting to see what is going to fall out.
Two more items. It used to be unemployment made the market go up HIGHER PROFITS so don’t worry about a few thusand more or less. Also. Moody’ and Standard and Poors work for the BOND SELLERS not the BOND BUYERS which is WHAT GOT US INTO THIS PROBLEM IN THE FIRST PLACE IT IS BACKWARDS don’t believe a word they say……………………………..Part of the bond problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I move, I’d rather be a little early than try to rearrange things in a frenzy. To sit and wait for the shoe to drop will likely result in it dropping on your own head. If you’re going to play bonds/bills, keep the term very short and roll them over. Once the rates peak, then you can lengthen the term, personally I don’t think the peak will be reached for a long time as I expect accelerating hyperinflation to last for years if not decades. At some point, there will be total debasement of the currency.
This question brings up an important point not only for how it affects investing, but also for how it affects housing. From an investment standpoint, if long term rates are going to eventually rise and we lose our AAA credit rating we are going to be hit with a much weaker U.S. dollar, so the obvious thing would be to get into gold and other assets that benefit from a falling dollar. On the other front, housing, I am not as sure what to expect. Will housing prices rise with other assets even if long term rates go up and mortgage rates move much higher? How will this happen if people can’t afford to buy homes? For many of us the greatest investment is our home. What will happen to housing when this new shift hits the fan.
The subject isn’t worth discussing. Washington hasn’t been unscrewed since FDR.
If you didn’t have a birth certificate and the possibility of being Hatched in a Hollow Stump, you’d be out of your tree too. JW
1. close trailing stops;
2. be cautious about any/all purchases;
3. take some winnings off the table;
4. thank God for my blessings.
Larry, I am a wreckless investor who will either crash and burn or have a big smile on my face. My response to the dropping averages is to gradually buy more commodity stocks and ETF’s. If the market falls once more, as it did today, I will be fully invested and way overweighted in precious metals, oil, fertilizer, timber and other commodities (approx. 80% of my portfolio). In the mid 1980s I was the treasurer of a non-profit entity. I invested every penny that entity possessed in 30 year US Treasury Bonds because the yields were between 10 and 14%. Today I do not own any bonds. I take your advice, recommendations and opinions seriously. However, I go to extreems. Only our government can make me look like a fiscal conservative.
The bubble dot com, foreclosure, saving and loan are just the visible burst so far. What makes American economy to total bankruptcy is when the Chinese pullout their investment in bonds, government treasury and curb exporting to US. Second when the foreigners bring back the holding of dollars or shipping back to US government which so called the intellectual, economists and Washingtonians never talked, mentioned or worried. These are the factors that we all have to deeply put our efforts to save America’s economic prestige before it drops down to its knees.
The bubble dot com, foreclosure, saving and loan are just the visible burst so far. What makes American economy to total bankruptcy is when the Chinese pullout their investment in bonds, government treasury and curb exporting to US. Second when the foreigners bring back the holding of dollars or shipping back to US government which so called the intellectual, economists and Washingtonians never talked, mentioned or worried. These are the factors that we all have to deeply put our efforts to save America’s economic prestige before it drops down to its knees.
Get out of debt! Buy food, clothing, and other necessities for personal use. Make your house defensible. Get supplies for barter: fats and oils, chocolate, distilled spirits, and as much ammunition as you can lay your hands on. Then wait — the show is about to begin! BTW the e-mail address destroys ALL that is sent to it . . . unread.
I watch the S&P500 + DJIA + DJ composite to get a feeling for the markets, plus I’m starting to watch some key bond market ETF’s: AGG+CFT+CIU+SHY. Hopefully this will help me see early when inflation hits. Plus, looking back at 2008 index trends it took only about 20 days for the markets to fall hard. Unsettling for a new Stock Market trader.
In such tiimes, it’s best to stay invested in Silver, Platinum, Gold, Australian $ and stocks in India. Why do I mention India? Cause it has one of the finest regulatory systems which makes it safe. The world it seems; is now learning to regulate financial instituions including banks, which India has been doing since the last 50 years. I am scared of the US$ - who knows when it will be devalued? When it does, it will take most people with surprize and will be burdened with huge losses. To anticipate a problem is wise. That’s how money is earned. People’s sentiments, government policies are temporary, but Silver, Platinum, Gold are forever.
Dear Larry,
I would say that the best course of action is not to wait until the bubble bursts and the stocks and commodities depreciate seriously, and to ones assets or investments into such sectors as the agricultural sector which will probably fare better as the global population grows and demand for its products increases.
One would also be well advised to invest in gold as it has been shown to be able to withstand most of the turmoil in the markets, whether caused by wars or poor economic policies.
Yours truly,
Serero
Dearest Larry,
First,many thanks for you & the teams ever so useful,never ending insights.
If we’ve learnt anything from the past,things will happen faster than you think.I always have a bad feeling about Febraury more than any month in the year,it’s a month when all the mistakes of the past year comes to haunt you.
It’s not just the credit ratings I’m worried about,the war in Yamen will escalate,Terrorist attacks seem to be imminent,if not on nato countries,it could be oilfields.
The whole world is coming to know America’s foreign policies of protecting or controling the source of it’s resources,they know that’s their weakness.A terrorist attack can have more devastating effects than just a slash in it’s credit rating,which will happen sooner than you think.
My regards
B
in these circumstances, half cash and half gold does well in these situations as after gold corrects you can take that half that was cash and increase the gold/metal/metal stock position
Hi Larry:
I am about to say some things that you will undoubtibly think are nonsense but are really quite true.. And since you asked for my comments. Here goes.
Larry, it is my belief that the current financial crisis has been planned for decades; Through two wars and three Presidents in succession (including our current resident in Washington) a financial crisis and the collapse of the dollar was supposed to usher in the little talked about “One World Order”. No, few talked about the unratified impending formation of the North American Union; the already printed Amero dollar (stored in Denver) which was to replace the dollar when it collapsed; the State Dept. negociated contract with Spain to build a SUPER HIGHWAY accross the US to Canada; the giving or selling US sovereign land within the continental United States to the Unithed Nations; the plans to deploy a mercenary military police force (Blackwater Corp) to police our people at the time of financial collapse; the plans to totally dissolve national borders and complete the undoing of the United States as a soveriegn nation; and many other acts accomplished illegally usupting our Constitution. All this done without the full knowledge of the American people or the legal ratification of the American Congress. Do you accept this undoing of your country.
All this accomplished by a powerful control network which has been gradually put in place by 13 wealthy families who have have had control of the Worlds Banking System and wealth since before the American Revolution. From that time until today this small group, through manipulating the world’s monetary systems and wealth, has manage to setup a comprehensive network which either totally controls, manipulates or highly influences the worlds covert intelligence agencies (i.e. CIA), the worlds banking system (i.e. the Federal Reserse System, National Banks etc), major corporations, scientific communities(i.e. NASA), and elements of the worlds military forces. This powerful network, over many years, has been electing Presidents, influencing both parties of two party systems of government, financing and influencing both sides of armed conflicts (wars), compromising foriegn governments, influencing judges, and religious leaders or anyone else to further their cause. The tools of their success being play on human weaknesses ( i.e greed or sexual fantesy), blackmail, threat of harm to self or family, fatal accidents, disappearances and very advanced technology (i.e. black ops, black military, chemtrails,
HARP, mind control, biological and germ warfare,etc,etc,etc) and the international drug trade. All this has successfully brought our world to where it is today: All of us working for the United States Corporation of America and footing the bill for much of the shenanigans of this small power group, known long ago as the Black Brotherhood or Illuminati. Yes, the government of the United States is a corporation administrating the 52 States of America, and the IRS and the Federal Reserve Banking System are private companies contracted by the US corp to collect money from the American people. We’ve been governed by a Corp. since the 30s.The only thing that has kept this country in tact to date is the strength of it’s peoples and our Constitutionally sanction Republic form of government. It has taken them this long to undermine our Constitution and compromise our Congressional and Judicial Branches of government. Our Presidents have been easier to circumvent.
And yet through all these past years and generations, Americans have lived through the ups and downs of life without much of a clue that all this was going on. I have been following in bits and pieces for 30 years. If Americans only knew that most of the significant up and down economical events (i.e. the Great Depression) and/or world or regional crises and armed conflicts, including WWI, WWI, Korea, Viet Nam), were either directly or indirectly caused and financially kindled by the many tenacles of this Octopus-lke power infrastructure headed by this small group for their own benefit of power and wealth. Up until the last ten years their operations have been very successful and their plan was on course, but after year 2000 things began to slowly fall apart.
And now in the year 2010 the United States is on the brink of total financial collapse and the the plan for a “One World Order” is finish. It is not going to happen. The reason being is that the Dark Cabal Illuminati lost control of its network. There is infighting and there is maneuvering to abscond with trillions of dollars of funds from the Federal Reserve/US Treasury by current and past US Gov. officials. These corrupt operations are being exposed and the cabal can not longer move funds around the world to support their operations. The power structure is quickly unraveling. Larry, if you want first hand evidence of this go to Chris Story’s web site the “Global Analyst”.
So the point of all this is that things are not as they seem. And as far as trying to read the Market or what bonds are going to do, I believe this is the worst time in history to do this. You have a collapsing economy, China is threatening to collect on a 47 trillion dollar debt and, at the same time, a long standing control infrastructure is falling apart with their higher echelons trying to “throw monkey wrenches in the system” and abscond with funds to remain in power. Obama is right in the middle of it and the controlled mainstream is reporting very little to none of what’s really going on. One has to go to foreign news sources to get any assemblance of truth. I would say salvage what you can and wait and see.
Behind all of this meltdown seems to be a new evolving human conciousness and a new paradigm of human life and governance on Earth as we approach 2012. There is a little talk about, little reported emergence of human spirit carrying with it a major shift in the United States and throughout the world to constitutionally sanctioned Nation States with national banking systems and national currency back by hard assets and with a fixed world credit system.There will be debt forgiveness across the board and a NEW cooperative spirit between nations will prevail. And what will make this work is a MAJOR SHIFT to a Higher Human Consciousness. No longer will there be talk of an enslaving “One World Order”. For the time in history there will be public announcements of the existence of benevolent off world races who’s existence has been denied by the world power structure all these years. These races will be of great service with highly evolve technologies to solve our energy and earth polution problems. There is much communication going on between specific humans and benevolent galactic off world races. Larry, I challenge you to check this out. I know this sounds like a “fairy tale”, but it is coming true. I don’t buy in to these things easily. I have been following the development of all this for 30 years. There is a Major Shift already underway. Again I challenge you to go to Sheldan Nidle’s web site paoweb.com and read all the archived updates from 2006 to present. It is time to get our hearts and minds out of the dumps and embrace a new paradigm of human evolution. Well Larry, you asked and I delivered. Take a look and think about all this Larry.
Yours truly,
Creespirit
Very pertinent analysis. If this were to happen, interest rates will shoot up, dollar will be in doldrums, and price of gold should double in no time. since inflation will just spook up
We need to reform our ways - pay a lot more attention to what’s going on in Washington. Through our inattention we’ve allowed this mess to happen. If the bubble Larry speaks of really bursts, it will set off a wave of panic like nothing we’ve seen before. Stockpile enough food and supplies to live for at least two weeks without leaving your house. Guns and ammo are good too. There’s a reason we have the 2nd Amendment, and that reason could be tested. Pray it does not. And get involved. Speak out. Visit the pledgeofrenewal.net web site and add your voice to the outcry. Spread the word.
Larry,
Seems to me the only way to prepare is to purchase the things you can think you will NEED while the money is still worth something and to then be conservative in ALL areas of life. But we must remember the sun does rise again and we must not allow ourselves to enter into our own depression.
I have most of my savings in the vanguard high yield fund-been in it on and off for 8 years-it’s a more low key fund that pays about 7% yours Gary
Clean energy money COOL!!! Germany cut by subsidyzing solar panals but they finished and that is why fslr fell. France has 58 nuclear plants so do we. we need more small nuclear plants-safer smaller… I bought some CLNE natural gas for trucking industry. China is working on putting in alot of solar panals and contrcted with AMAT. so, CLNE, AMAT are good investments I own or have owned. What stocks do you like and why?? No more info unless i hear better from you guys.
I find the divergence of opinions in this Blog absolutely fascinating. Though I intend no personal offense to anybody, when I hear people shaping investment decisions to the advice of a dead relative or asserting that only “God” can fix the mess we’re in, I am forced to wonder if their medications need adjustment. Such behavior is simply NUTS! One might as well be spinning a roulette wheel. We are in the current mess because we have refused to live within our means for the past 30 years, and enlisted the help of our government to do so. No economic system can survive the mental laziness and gamblers’ impulses of its participants. There ain’t no such animal as a “free” lunch.
Major market movements are totally unaffected by decisions of small investors. Real market movers and shakers sit on the investment committees of major insurance companies, the boards of a few huge international banks, and in banking or investment regulatory and oversight organizations of a few National governments. These people make their decisions in private and they positively loathe being named or interviewed in public media. Their decisions are never visible before the fact. Market turns are only weakly predictable based on what are called “fundamentals”.
Most of us are referring to fundamentals even if we don’t know we are, when we speak or write of making decisions from our “gut feelings” . Most of those writing in this Blog have the “feeling” that world financial and monetary systems are badly out of balance these days. Larry has stated his opinions concerning the implications of those distortions. I don’t fully agree with him. And I DEEPLY distrust anybody who thinks that the buzz words of so-called “technical analysis” graphs or trend lines mean anything. Technical analysis has a simply awful record of failures. Larry has no more crystal ball than the rest of us.
Lacking any real guidance on prediction of major market turns, I’ve been forced to fall back on my own intuition. Last November, I set up our portfolios and advised a couple of close friends to set up theirs, to move out of mutual fund stock equities if we saw a 10% drop in major market indexes over a month’s time. That condition occurred yesterday. I’m re-balancing my funds into short term bonds and cash (money market funds) today. This is a temporary stop-loss position. It won’t save us from long term trends, but it might give us a little more breathing room before the next crisis (probably later this year).
If (as Larry has repeatedly said), the US government is deliberately inflating our currency to pay off its debts in cheaper dollars, then (in my opinion), the danger of a Weimar Republic style hyper-inflation may be growing. In any such conditions, there simply will BE no “safe” investments. We’re talking about a market meltdown where nobody knows what anything is “worth” or how to price it. We could be thrown back into a barter economy if the collapse is severe enough. Gold won’t be an answer either, even if government doesn’t confiscate it. How will we determine the gold weight that corresponds to a loaf of bread?
The ability for many to make a living will become an increasing problem in the next 3 years. People will fall off the unemployment doles, and on to the welfare doles. Homless populations are sure to grow. States are going to have budget problems…..some of then, budget crisis. Don’t buy long term bonds! Hold plenty of cash and liquidity in the instituion you deem mafe. Spread your investments around over seas…. and a few good domestic bets. Get out of debt. Hold some gold and silver at the level that fits your personal risk assessment. Buy more gold and silver…. when you have a little extra folding money and market price dips. Have a little US $100 cash laying around also. Batten down your financial hatches….. and watch the storm. It’s going to be a fine show! Remember to be generous to those in need, if you can help your neighbor…then do that.
What about gold
I think China is a good bet what about Canada???
When you know that an economy will crash, get out of paper money (shares, CDS, derivatives, life insurance etc. etc…) and buy precious metals (physical gold and silver, because the latter is an excellent kind of payment for your daily commodities). Then maybe I would invest in food/water stocks, but I am not sure Maybe Larry will give us better answers. When the bubble bursts, there will be a tremenous “fireball” go around the world (not only in the western hemsphere but il will hurt each single country very badly. MARK JOHNSON told you how things will come. I agree totally.
Larry
Question: bonds underscore currency stability, there is no mature bond market to speak of in the developing world. What impact does a be-based bond / US Dollar have on frequency and amplitude in all markets movement. Is momentum the way to play the future?
I would like to see everyone stop paying into their 401k for a year and use the money to pay down private debt. Make wall st. earn money . Don”t just hand it to them. Thanks
I never buy stocks or bonds directly. In my Vanguard bond funds, all are intermediate term corporate taxable as well as tax free. My hi yield is less than 5% of my total and may be reduced for a small loss; the yield is 7.5%. Vanguard’s High Yield Corporate Fund is less vulnerable. I do have an inflation protected securities fund. I truly believe that although Mr. O’Bama is a very egotistic bright man but so were other dictators. Most of my opinions now are based on the old saying, “Tell me who you go with and I’ll tell you what you are.” He loaded his administration with real scum bags with agendas that could not care less about the United States. Getting him out will be the first order toward normalcy.
What better way to pay off some of the national debt than pay back with inflated dollars!
I completely agree with TL impeach Obama and then clean the big spenders then put some CPAs in there and clean up the deficit. Then try obama for treason and perjury and lets see him ink and unk out of this one.
The 5 G’s, if you have the guts, have the guts, have the guns, have the gold, have god whatever order you place them you will be ready at least for what follows the financial crisis headed toward us faster and faster. Buyer of gold since 70’s. Numismatics fractionals of any quality, now heading towards bullion fractionals available seem only way to be ready and/or profit. Oil income thru direct equity ownership, forgetting gen/limited and thick paper promises and income that passes thru someone elses hands before yours. These two make inflation in other commidities a standoff, income and protection will be in place. Seems anything else nothing more than trading vehicles. Question people need to answer is security and monthly income or manipulated paper markets.
santa fe steve
I don’t know that I fully agree with everything that Creespirit says, but I do agree with a lot of it. I also believe this economic collapse was planned by our government. They are perceived by many to be stupid, but I think they know exactly what they’re doing. Stupid is not the word - more like evil and greedy. They have prepared for the economic collapse and the public unrest by building FEMA concentration camps all over the U.S. They also have thousands of coffins stored and the U.S. has thousands of foreign troops stationed everywhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if martial law is not right around the corner. I have tried to be as prepared as I can be - buying food, supplies, gold and silver. I am fully depending on God to save us from this mess, as only He can.
Larry—I’m ashamed of you! How could you have ignored NUCLEAR POWER PRODUCTION? it has been too-long flipped to the background because of unfounded fears of fatalities should out-of-date plants go Chernobyl! Few, if any, fatalities have resulted from nuclear power.
Other alternative sources like coal feature constant and startling underground coal mining deaths.
Let’s get on with it! ! ! Dick.
Larry,
I think the threat of a downgrade of US Treasuries by Moody’s isn’t real. Historically, the US Treasury has never defaulted and if the US is downgraded, then what would be the relative rating of other countries’ currencies and debt instruments? China may be a growth engine, but the Chinese government still has control over the money supply and they have demonstrated a willingness to control any aspect of their business or society they wish. I still believe the US Treasury is the safetest instrument there is, and any downgrade it received I would view as more of a political satement. I wouldn’t look at any other debt worldwide as a safer place to put my money.
I literally have a $50,000,000,000,000.00 trillion dollar idea that would put our Country back on track by building the world’s largest Cruise line designed to enhance the already existing Navy into something alot stronger and more profitable as to tie the Budget of the United States so it can’t spend so foolishly by building one Ship @ a time like most of your other Cruise lines do. Only difference is, is that your membership give’s you certain privledges like no other Cruise line on Earth. So Send me a Real good Publisher and I’ll literally give you the World. Sincerely, Robert Anthony Rakowski . Feb. 5, 2010 Copyright 1982 R.A. Rhodes All Rights Reserved. On behalf of the U.S.S. Eagle Ships / The American Club of Eagle Services (A.C.E.S.) / James Bond in Sea Fire 2000……..
why can’t the government just do the right thing ever? these elitist are killing evrything and history proves it. the government , or actually this country is a family and should be treated as so. what i mean is if your kid gets into trouble with their first credit card you would tell them to close pay it back and do not get into debt like that, spend waht you can and nbot what you think youcan because after you graduate you are going to have this great job. get responsible now and “when ” that great job comes youcan spend and use debt responsibly in your means. just because ther is agovernment and amde up of amny people does not mean it is any different. just like a country a person is a complex individual and needs to be responsible.
If you think it’s going to rain, or KNOW its going to rain, you put your mac on before you go out.
Never fear…FDR has returned. Grab your wife’s jewelry and your other gold and send it to Obama.
It’ll soon be illegal to own it…Again. If you don’t, watch for the Purple shirts to come after you to take you to jail. Then BHO will declare that it’s worth $5000/ounce. When it’s all in Washington, we’ll be back on the GOLD standard.
Invest wisely: Buy stocks
When they go bad: buy bonds
When they go bad: buy treasuries
When they go bad: buy GOLD
When gold goes bad: buy bullets….
I’m done
Hi Larry,
My strategy is this…use money that I do not require for everyday life and invest for the long term. I am not smart enough or educated enough to be able to “play” the market. The odd time I attempt it, the market ends up playing me.
Since I do not rely on daily profits to live, I can deal with the ebbs and flows of the markets with less stress. I also use the low points to increase my positions.
Sylvie
THE GREATEST PROBLEM …ABSOLUTELY UNCONROLLED MILITARY SPENDING…THE F-35 & C-17 ARE PERFECT EXAMPLES …WHO ARE WE GOING TO ATTACK..CHINA OR RUSSIA…? THERE IS “NO” ENEMY..FURTHERMORE THE TERRORISTS COULD CARE LESS ABOUT AIRCRAFT CARRIERS OR THE VAUNTED F-22, ..THE UN-MANED AIRCRAFT IS WHAT THEY DREAD.
ALSO, THE PORK AND MORE PORK IN EVERY PHASE OF OUR BUDGETS…
My compliments to your concise analysis, Don Go Bucks…DEAD ON…..Progressives (Call them Liberal, Marxist, Communist, or Nazi—Soon to call themselves Populists), beginning with Woodrow Wilson, burrowing in
with FDR, now culminating with Obama, are elitists, hate capitalism, & are “overloading” all our systems, to effectively have a “Sneak Coup”…..by “crashing our economy” INTENTIONALLY. WE MUST CLEAN HOUSE,
NOW…..ONLY WAY OUT………..GOOOH.com for answers.
Larry. Your article leaves me confused as to whether we face an economic collapse and deflation, or the prospect of inflation. It’s not just you, other columnists have left me with the same confusion.
I’ve prepared myself mentally for inflation. As some of my US stocks go up, I will sell them, then invest abroad and in commodities. I suppose assets can be reallocated just as easily when stocks go down. It may even make more sense as the tax impact will be more favorable. But it feels better to sell assets after a “bump up,” than after a knock down.
I will be in the dumps if the Dow (and my stocks) keep dropping, gold, oil and other natural resources drop, and my investments abroad drop. Taking losses (or reduced gains) to buy other assets that should fall less quickly may make sense, but is hard to explain to the wife. I’m having trouble explaining it to myself.
Dear Larry,
When all this settles down gold and related assets will be the only ones left standing.
One with smarts avers that there may be enough of the precious metal to help stabilize the market: gold may be used to buy US $$$. Just his/their concept.
My theory of the U. S. financial crisis of September 2008 is as follows. Until sometime in 2007, foreign financial flows into the U.S. (bond sales, asset sales, loans from foreign countries, foreign companies and foreign individuals) were sufficient to satisfy the credit needs in the U. S.. Due to the high level of U. S. government debt and the inability of the the U. S. government to address basic issues that would maintain the current economic activity level over the long term (education, infrastructure, energy policy) a significant number of foreign companies and individuals determined that the economic risk of buying U. S. bonds or assets or loaning money to U. S. companies was too high. Therefore during 2007 financial flows into the U. S. from these sources was significantly reduced. The first U. S. industry adversely affected by this action was real estate (more specifically real estate loans). The second U. S. industry adversely affected by this action was the U. S. financial industry. If you compare the unplanned U. S. government additions to debt for 2008 and 2009 to the reduction from the prior level of financial flows from foreign companies and individuals you will find that they are close to equivalent. Therefore the U. S. must make the changes necessary to improve their long term economic performance to regain the trust of foreign companies and individuals and ultimately foreign countries (who up until today have continued to buy U. S. government bonds). This will take revolutionary changes in U. S. government policy and will certainly not be accomplished over the short term.
I agree with your forecast, and though such outcomes often take much longer than one would guess, I feel that any one of many possible events that could “push” or accelerate this outcome within the next few months. If not, then I’ve read* the rollover of $2 Trillion in short term US Gov. debt due this year, in addition to borrowing an additional $1.4 Trillion for this year’s deficit will provide ample evidence that much of this debt buying is being done through the back door by Bernacke i.e. printing the money! This mounting evidence that the US does NOT honor its commitment to its citizens nor its trading partners will move China and others into action before this year is over. Our currency is done for, when trust in its future value reaches a tipping point - and the sea of Forex (currencies) is already experiencing storm conditions.
I hold quite a few SMALL positions in mining, biotech, China small caps and emerging tech stocks, gold and silver, and a basket of puts on US sectors, but still mostly in US cash right now. I’m likely to further reduce these on a near term bounce, and add to the puts.
Should the dollar continue up as everything else goes down, as happened before, I will then shift to investing outside the dollar. Should the dollar resume declining I will shift cash to the commodity currencies and foreign producers post haste. My opinion is the Bulls have now lost too many of their ranks in Jan ‘10. Falling markets and a rising buck are now trends.
I wonder if the investing in front of the alternative energy stimulus money is a good idea-i.e. it will get spent and some stocks will lift off regardless of what else is happening? Will the American public demand we reverse course on this prolifigate spending, (knowing full well that such action is disasterous, but much less so than staying the current course.)
It has taken me a long while, but now I am sadly convinced the American public in general will not react until it is done. I hope I am wrong - and yes, I have been sending letters to Congressmen
via a “grass roots” internet based solution that has had over 250K respondents - that’s a lot of letters every other week or so. I do believe its our best shot at saving our currency, and the country. It will take more than gridlock.Millions of letters might do it.
* courtesy PSIA
Peak oil only applies to cheap oil and there is certainly a dearth of the latter; hence the Iraq war. The world has ample reserves of oil left estimated at tree trillion barrels by the US geological Survey. Compared to the intensity of drilling undertaken in the US and the Gulf of Mexico, Africa, Australia, Asia, China and the Central republics of Asia have hardly been explored.
As you say, the Western world has certainly decided to tackle green house gas emissions, but their enthusiasm for curtailing them will depend on how the global economy performs. If it deteriorates, and that is more than likely in the near term, then most of these programs will be shelved. Bear in mind that, at this stage, many of these interesting renewable sources of energy have yet to prove commercially viable on their own; they cannot be eternally subsidized.
The technology that is commercially the most attractive aside from natural geothermal energy are are pebble bed nuclear reactors jointly with solar panel energy for a back up system.
Gold prices keep going up and up the dollar goes down and down - how we pay back when the world returned the dollar paper back to us?
Larry I would be in consumables food, supermarkets, utilities to ride out the storm.
For the reasons you have stated, I have been adding to my holding in the TBT etf as a sure bet against long term bonds.
Every good person that goes to Washington seems to get corrupted.
The Stock market has become a casino.
There are no safe havens for money except a vault in your land.
Interesting how all of the people unwilling to pay their taxes, especially businessmen and businesses, wind up destroying business in America. I have survived 6 recessions and I have never seen so many small businesses in our area closed down for such a prolonged period of time, so many homes still for sale and so many restaurants doing 25% less business or closing. Sociological literacy is part and parcel of a good economy. A billionaire friend told me he had paid no taxes in 2007.
The State of California has failed. Prop 13 destroyed our State financial base. The same mentalities who gave us Prop 13 are rushing to their Tea Parties. (Having had a great grandmother
who was a Daughter of Liberty (those whose ancestors supported the Boston Tea Party), I shudder.
-Republican Politicians destroyed Carter’s energy sufficiency plans and gave us a *three trillion dollar Iraq War.*
-Republican Politicians deregulated everything and gave us a *worldwide financial collapse.*
-Republican Politicians destroyed Traditional Christianity Influence in America and gave us fundamentalist air-heads.
-Republican Politicians have caused a downward spiral in American wages - *The Pauperization of the American Workforce.”
-Republican Politicians have allowed health care costs to become unaffordable.
-Republican Politicians want power but have no true good solutions for the *common man*
and our once great liberal nation.
Larry;
Basically I agree that traditional growth stocks like Natural Gas and Petroleum Production, Health Care and the Food Industries or Limited Partnerships like Kinder Morgan provide an acceptable level of safety and stability as well as a modest income stream. These are investments that support the basic daily necessities for our country and are logically the most likely to be stable during the current economic crisis.
What to do in the meantime?
I believe that the current downward trend in the market will continue for the next two to three years and then begin a slow recovery. Then, as the economy reflects sustained recovery, prudent investors should implement a more aggressive strategy.
Ed Sutton
Retired Bank of America Financial Advisor
Republican leadership is committed to Obama winning in 2012. In spite of many qualified people, they will search and search until they find a team that guarantees losing the next presidential election.
You are right about green economy the Fed, States,county and town are working very hard to provide incentives to attract green business and they do it by helping the business get Bond.Grant,Training etc the problem is to find private lender to look at business plant and show them that there is a lot of money to be made in the recycling and renewable energy this is one of the problem that we as a small business face.
Luc Fortin
VP
Heritage Polymer Recycling
Our Congress will not produce any comprehensive energy policy because of local politics. Clean energy is dead as well as any hope for cooperation on the Hill it seems lately. Someone needs to stand up, take charge, and lead the debate. The US needs to shape the future…not be shaped. When will we lead again, and not be led. Who on the Hill is going to step up, cash in some political capital, find some champions and build momentum so that this opportunity doesn’t die in the chaos of DC? If the USG is incapable of helping, then they need to get out of the way and hopefully the innovative American spirit will allow some private business to take a calculated economic risk so that the future doesn’t solely belong to foreign companies moving forward with renewable energy technology.
The only thing that has ever survived the printing press is hard assets. Things like gold, silver, diamonds, bare land, base metals, and the like. They all have their own drawbacks, but if a person put a portion of his assets in a variety of hard assets, he would survive anything short of total confiscation of everything, which, of course, is darn near impossible.
Larry and all who may have insight into this: Please help me understand whether when we’re speaking of “bonds”…does this also include Municipal Bond Funds??? I have several such funds in the Blackrock and DWS names that have been a mainstay of my income strategy. During the tech bubble I saw these stay fairly stable. They did drop with everything else this last March. In some DWS literature I read that Municipal Bonds are supposed to have a low correlation to the equity market and other debt instruments…but I dont know whether I should consider when Martin says “bonds of all stripes and colors”…are these included? Would SO appreciate your insight. thx. Yona
Since Japan went through the house of cards debacle, Realestate is a market, and iut is only worth what someone else is willing to pay , and the next Generation isnt getting paid more === $the value of realesate goes down,,,, and since sixty percent of a persons wealth is wrapped up in “the value of an appraiser” fire all appraisers and “QUIT BUILDING NEW HOMES “… the market will have to come back.. Are we going in a depression for the Developers they got us in this mess selling us ridiculous priced housing — calling it affordable I have never owned a new home and never will.. Instead Convert their skills and ManPower into the Energy needs of the U.S. And all of you START INVESTING IN AMERICA and I don’t MEAN South America either or Mexico—Our small caps and microcaps.. they are dirt cheap
We stick our money all over the World looking for greed and we dont take care of our own People…
This is an American problem— invest in jobs of Americans i try to invest in small energy companies but noone else is lifting up the values of our own microcaps and thy are dirt cheap and getting destroyed… Strangled by foreign oil at the mercy of China for our DEBT– Lets not pay them back this is SurvivaL!!!
Excuse me what did you say this morning? Dow 60,000 because of hyper inflation and the re-investment from the collapsing bond markets… Well then bread would cost $1,000. a loaf…no under lining valaution to justify those price earning ratios,,,it would be market mayhem…people would pull their money just to eat and gas their cars…I don’t know but this NWO sure seems unstoppable…we in America are calling for the stop of this ‘liberal’ or should I say ‘Nazi’ agenda but the powers that be have a grip on the situation…One world governement and one world currency…they need central banks to collapse all free economies so us peoples ‘beg’ them to rescue us…Yes anti-christ is on the horizon…Greece and the PIIGS are rip for takeover..Thank you for your emails..Take care :)
Oh’Larry:I can not believe,that you are using old trice to ,blame the messenger.Y/?
Do we remember the one page blank check that-X president Bush gave to Wall-street? for over7.5Trillion> .And how about the one for A.I.G?..OH THAT RIGHT-MR.Bush was off duty so we can’t blame him. The deal was seal by the incombant President B.Obama.
The newest unemployment report shows increase in jobs-tossedRemember the Bush doctrine-”after all there only doing jobs that no American worker want do”.
I don’t what to put words in your mouth but ,According to Moody”s we are all going to die>!!! impending DOOM!…Well i think he is funny, this stuff stated- a long time ago, and it going to take a long time before-we can at-leas,lessen to good logical reasoning-this’ in-fighting ant cool and we need a cool head-at the Rutter;all you tale baybe “boomers need to wizz-up can you dig-it.Do the math you only have about 25 good working years, if you can stay healthy.I think that President Obama realize the fact bast on statistics that this segment of the population is the pivit-so if we have a heathery-population-in the futer>it is wearth it.
Tonydakota-peas-out%^
Thank you for the information about US and Chinas’ stake in green energy production. But there is none of the statistical information about India’s position in green energy production. Please furnish those information.Kalai