Sean Brodrick -

Link to Rebroadcast of Jurojin Webinar

by Sean Brodrick on November 6, 2009

Here is the rebroadcast of the webinar

https://weissevents.webex.com/weissevents/lsr.php?AT=pb&SP=EC&rID=1708827&rKey=9bbf0f8ed3495881

 

It was a fun, informative webinar, but we’re new to the technology and had a bunch of technical glitches.  This threw me for such a loop that I didn’t start recording the webinar until the second slide.  The first trend was the declining dollar, and you’ve probably heard me talk about that enough.  Some of the other trends covered in the webinar may be interesting to you.

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Why Is Gold Up More Than the U.S. Dollar Is Down?

by Sean Brodrick on November 6, 2009

A question that many of us have been wrestling with (privately, anyway) is why, when gold is breaking out to new highs, the U.S. dollar is not plunging to new lows.  I mean, sure, gold and the dollar usually move opposite to each other, but the dollar is holding support around 75 (for now).

I expect that support to crack, but a lot of people don’t agree with me.  Jack Crooks is one of the best currency traders you’ll ever meet and he offers his own take on the dollar and gold. You can see it by pointing your web browser here: http://tinyurl.com/ydthlv4

Jack’s video is really worth watching.

My own expectation is for the U.S. dollar to continue to trend lower until sometime in the third quarter of next year.  Then, if the dollar follows its historical cycles, we should see a pretty good rally, and it could always turn into something more. But there’s a lot of time between now and then, and a lot of money to be made.

Whatever your own view, be careful out there.

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Weekly Gold Chart. Get Your Bull Horns On

by Sean Brodrick on November 6, 2009

Here’s a weekly chart of gold. You can see that not only did it break out to the upside, but volume is increasing.  Therefore, any calling of a top is premature.  We’ll know the near-term top when we see it in the rear-view mirror.

gold Weekly Gold Chart. Get Your Bull Horns On

You know (if you’ve been reading me for any length of time) that my intermediate-term target is $1,300.  Originally, that was for all of next year, but considering the move we’ve seen recently, I’m moving that up to the first half of 2010.

My longer-term target on gold is $1,650.  It will be a bumpy ride — buy the pullbacks.

Meanwhile, silver (SLV: 17.09 -0.03 -0.18%) has been underperforming gold (GLD: 107.43 +0.45 +0.42%) in the last couple days.  That’s not what I was expecting. Stay tuned.

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How to Play Big Money Trends in 2010

by Sean Brodrick on November 5, 2009

This week, gold has pushed to new highs … oil is hammering away at overhead resistance … agriculture prices pushed higher … and the U.S. dollar appears ready to roll over and head lower.

You can make a lot of money on these moves … and these aren’t short-term trends. What we’re seeing is the set-up for big trades in 2010 … trends that can make you a lot of money!

Let’s look at some of the latest developments …

#1) Why Gold’s Big Breakout Is Just the Beginning!

Gold blasted higher this week. And this move isn’t done. Simple technical analysis shows we could see another 20% move higher in gold and the ETF that tracks it, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), in just the next few months.

GLD, which tracks gold, is breaking out and heading higher.

Gold is being squeezed on both the supply side, where mines can’t keep up despite high prices, and on the demand side, as investors pile into gold and silver.

Then, on Tuesday, markets rocked and gold prices shot higher, fueled by news that the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, is buying 200 metric tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nearly half of what the fund plans to sell. It joins other central banks — including China, Russia, and some members of the European Union — who have decided to increase their gold reserves.

In the last year, China has increased its gold holdings, by weight, by 75.69%, Russia by 18.78%, the Philippines by 18.50% and Mexico by 108.91%. And members of these foreign governments have made their aims clear — to own MORE gold and FEWER dollars.

Result: Central banks have turned from sellers into net buyers. Going forward, according to industry analysts at GFMS, the second half of the year should see even more purchases.

It sure seems that China, Russia and others are buying gold on every dip. This is probably part of a plan for a long-term shift away from the dollar. But it also puts a floor under the price of gold … and means the easiest path for the yellow metal should be higher.

Gold and silver are the original alternative currencies. They’re hard asset currencies — you can’t create them on a printing press. And in a time of paper currency corruption and debasement, they should continue to shine! We’ll give you our picks for the next leg of gold’s bull run at our online conference.

#2) Why the Dollar Drubbing Will Continue!

The pressure from central banks around the world is just the beginning. The U.S. dollar is on a slippery slope. Reasons include …

  • The budget deficit hit $1.42 trillion in 2009. It looks to go higher in 2010, and we could see budget deficits of well over a trillion dollars for years to come.

  • The U.S. government is moving closer to its $12.1 trillion debt ceiling. It is now at $11.9 trillion, or more than $38,000 per person. That means if you have a family of four, your portion is slightly more than $155,000 of pure debt.

  • There is only one way to get rid of unsustainable levels of U.S. debt — inflation. And the prevailing U.S. policy is clear — we are going to inflate our way out of this (that is, devalue the dollar).

There are ways you can play the dollar’s slide, both to protect your portfolio AND profit. You’ll find out more at the online conference.

#3) Why the Big Bull Run for Grains Is About to Begin!

  • According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the number of chronically hungry people in the world — that is people suffering from perpetual and severe hunger — has risen to an unbelievable 1 billion!

  • While two years of bumper harvests have boosted global stockpiles, as measured by months’ worth of inventory, they still are lower than at any time since World War II.

  • China, with 1.3 billion mouths to feed, is really caught in a squeeze. Its farmland is disappearing due to drought, over-pumping and urbanization. It has to feed 7.3 times as many people per arable acre as the U.S. And as the Chinese get wealthier, they want to eat more like big, fat Americans.

Now for the really bullish news. A slumping dollar boosted the appeal of U.S. grain exports for buyers using other currencies. This in turn should boost grain prices. There are ways you can play this — find out more at our online conference!

Last Chance to Register for This Live Online Event

This is your last chance to register for tomorrow’s LIVE online web conference on “3 Big Investment Winners Gearing Up for 2010.”

This exclusive online event will give you expert insight into precious metals, agricultural commodities, currencies and more — the info you need to help boost your trading profits in the year ahead.

THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME TO WASTE!

If you’re wondering …

  • What the big trends in 2010 will be …

  • Where gold is going …

  • How high silver could go in 2010 …

  • What is REALLY driving the price of oil …

  • What opportunities await in currencies …

  • And more!

This special online conference from the Secret Order of Jurojin will give you insight into investment decisions that will power up your portfolio in 2010.

Register NOW. Just do it! You can submit questions now by clicking here, or during the conference at 12 Noon Eastern Time tomorrow.

The Call is at Noon ET Tomorrow — Your Deadline Is Tomorrow Morning At 10 a.m. ET!

Registration is free, easy, and takes only seconds. Just click this link now, and click “register” on the top left corner of the event information page. You will then be prompted to enter your first and last name and to insert and confirm your email address.

If you don’t get aboard this profit train now, you’ll wish you had! Sign up. Get ready! And open your eyes to a world of investment possibilities.

I urge you: Register now while there’s still time.

One last thing: We had to cap this online conference at 1,000 attendees. It IS oversubscribed. So if you want to listen to the conference live, don’t be late! Remember, the conference starts at NOON SHARP on Friday.

Yours for trading profits,

Sean

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Hi-Ho Silver!

by Sean Brodrick on November 4, 2009

Here’s one of the big winners from Tuesday … it also happens to be in the Red-Hot Commodity ETFs portfolio …

agq Hi-Ho Silver!

Red-Hot Commodity ETFs has been banking a bunch of gains, and we should have more coming up.  I’m probably sending out an new recommendation today or tomorrow.  If you aren’t onboard already, join now, or you’ll wish you had.

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The Curious Case of the Too-Polite Financial Bloggers

by Sean Brodrick on November 3, 2009

Yves at Naked Capitalism relates her experience in “A Curious Meeting at the Treasury Department.” A whole bunch of financial bloggers got to sit down with high-ranking Treasury officials and have their questions answered.  As Yves explains …

My bottom line is that the people we met are very cognitively captured, assuming one can take their remarks at face value. Although they kept stressing all the things that had changed or they were planning to change, the polite pushback from pretty all the attendees was that what Treasury thought of as major progress was insufficient.

XX Sean’s note — I would not expect to be invited to such a meeting. For one thing, I’m not high-profile enough — not on the same level as Marginal Revolution, Kid Dynamite’s World, Across the Curve, Financial Armageddon, Accrued Interest and others.  Also, because unlike any of them apparently, my question, after listening to the Treasury officials state their case, my question would be:  ‘WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU?!  Why haven’t you reinstated Glass-Steagall?  What possible excuse could you have?!”

And that, boys and girls, is why I’m not invited to the nice parties, LOL.

To his credit, Steve Waldman of Interfluidity did give a good response after hearing the Treasury’s spiel on regulatory reform:  “I’ve read your bill and I think it’s terrible.”  But Yves didn’t report any other pointed barbs by bloggers.

UPDATE:  Yves replies to my commentary:  http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/curious-meeting-at-treasury-department.html#comment-63668

In other news, here’s a few things you might enjoy reading …

Why American health care costs so much

Art Cashin on the Dollar

Jesse:  Ladies and Gentlemen, the United States of America is Insolvent

Zero Hedge:  A Massive Drop in Saudi Arabian Oil Exports to the US

Gold Futures Hit Record High

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Updated Chart of GDX

by Sean Brodrick on November 3, 2009

gdxzone5 Updated Chart of GDX

To see an updated version of the (GDX: 47.62 +0.90 +1.93%) chart in today’s video — one you can continue to keep checking — point your web browser to:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p36806906307&a=182412775

 

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Transcript for Today’s Video: Opportunity in Gold Miners

by Sean Brodrick on November 3, 2009

If you want to read a rough transcript of today’s video, point your web browser here: http://blogs.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/files/2009/11/brodrick-uwdvideo1103091.pdf or try here: brodrick-uwdvideo1103091

And if you want to sign up for Friday’s non-Weiss webinar, point your web browser here: http://tinyurl.com/ydpfoca

Finally, here is a link to the blog post that ran over the weekend: “3 Big Investment Winners for 2010.” If you missed it, you might want to give it a read.

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News You Can Use for Monday

by Sean Brodrick on November 2, 2009

Stocks took off this morning, but are giving up their gains in the afternoon. We’ll see how we close. The watchwords for today, according to Art Cashin, are “nimble” and “cautious.”

Here are some things you might want to read …

Good, sobering chart on jobs (hat-tip Jesse)

job_losses_and_recessions1 News You Can Use for Monday

And here’s a scary chart from The Automatic Earth, showing total credit market debt as a percent of GDP. As you can see, we’re far beyond anything seen during the Great Depression.

 

debtgdp News You Can Use for Monday

Gosh, how they love to scare me so.

It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America (Hat-tip Yves)

Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis. For 20 years the world’s second-largest economy has been able to borrow cheaply from a captive bond market, feeding its addiction to Keynesian deficit spending – and allowing it to push public debt beyond the point of no return.

Stiglitz Says U.S. Is Paying for Failure to Nationalize Banks

“We have this very strange situation today in America where we have given banks hundreds of billions of dollars and the president has to beg the banks to lend and they refuse,” Stiglitz said. “What we did was the wrong thing. It has weakened the economy and has increased our deficit, making it more difficult for the future.”

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust

By Nouriel Roubini

“One day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.”

XX Sean’s note – Mr. Roubini is right – all trends end – but I think he’s way, WAY too early on this one.  Still, maybe he’s right — we’ll see how the greenback ends the week.

 

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3 Big Investment Winners Gearing up for 2010

by Sean Brodrick on October 31, 2009

It’s only eight weeks till Christmas, and time to start making your investment plans for 2010. Why? Because market rotation starts earlier and earlier as investors try to get one step ahead of each other.

The good news is I believe 2010 should be easier to trade than 2009. And that’s because this year’s big trend — a declining dollar — looks like it will stay firmly in place.

The even better news is I have three picks for you to play this trend — and a special invitation to attend an exclusive online event, an event that promises to help boost your trading profits in the year ahead.

Why the Dollar Drubbing Will Continue …

Some facts …

  • The budget deficit hit $1.42 trillion in 2009. It looks to go higher in 2010, and we could see budget deficits of well over a trillion dollars for years to come.
  • The U.S. government is moving closer to its $12.1 trillion debt ceiling. It is now at $11.9 trillion, or more than $38,000 per person. That means if you have a family of four, your portion is slightly more than $155,000 of pure debt.
  • There is only one way to get rid of unsustainable levels of U.S. debt — inflation. And the prevailing U.S. policy is clear — we are going to inflate our way out of this (that is, devalue the dollar).

And here’s exhibit A — a chart of the dollar …

The U.S. dollar seems to be on a slippery slope of doom - investors rush to spend dollars to buy real assets like oil.
Source: Stockcharts.com

The Treasury Department is running the printing presses at full blast, and the Fed has purchased more than $1.3 TRILLION in Treasury and Agency securities. When a government purchases its own debt, it’s not just pig-bitin’ crazy, it also devalues the currency.

So why do I think this trend will continue? Because the government is in no hurry to support the greenback by raising interest rates. One Fed governor after another has trotted out to say that the Fed won’t raise interest rates for many months to come. That just reinforces the trend in the chart above.

I believe the government has a grand plan to let the dollar depreciate, hoping this will boost American exports (and jobs). The problem is that foreign central banks are wising up. Bloomberg recently reported that central banks are switching out of dollars and into euros and yen. The U.S. dollar makes up only 37% of new central bank foreign reserves, down from an average 63% since 1999.

If this trend away from the dollar increases, the slippery slide of the dollar could become a plunge — and give the dollar a haircut of between one-third and one-half very quickly.

But let’s say the worst doesn’t happen — let’s say the government manages a gradual decline in the greenback? That’s going to be GREAT news for select commodities that are already doing well. Commodities like …

Pick #1 — Crude Oil, the Lifeblood of Civilization

Our civilization runs on oil — if the oil stopped flowing tomorrow morning, our society would shatter tomorrow night. Global demand for oil is rising, led by Chinese economy that is surging with growth of 9% a year. Growth requires fuel, and China’s oil imports rose 12.6% in September compared to the same month a year ago. What’s more, China’s car sales are shifting into higher gear — up 78% in September from a year earlier.

And then there’s supply. While it seems like there is plenty of crude on the market now, there is a ticking time bomb south of our border. One of America’s biggest suppliers of imported oil is Mexico, and Mexico’s oil production is falling off a cliff — dropping to 500,000 barrels a day recently from over 2 million barrels a day in 2005. Plus, Mexico uses more and more of its own oil.

If this worsening trend continues, we could see net oil exports from Mexico simply vanish within 24 months or less. And that might be enough to send crude spiking to $200 a barrel!

Potential price spikes aside, there are plenty of bullish forces for oil. The fact is that the only oil we find nowadays is deep under the ocean or in the far corners of the earth, owned by people who hate us. The fact is, Nigeria, another big supplier of U.S. oil, is on the brink of civil war (again!). The fact is, much of the world’s energy infrastructure is old and rusting and will require several trillion dollars to replace it — if it can be replaced at all. The fact is, you can do a lot worse than invest in oil.

Now for the really bullish news. More and more traders, investors, and sovereign wealth funds are using oil as an alternative currency to the dollar — they’re taking they’re depreciating dollars and using them to buy oil, which is going up in price. Do you think that’s a bullish trend? Heck, yeah!

How to Trade It

One easy way to do it is to buy the United States Oil Fund (USO), an ETF that invests in futures contracts in an attempt to track the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. It doesn’t track oil perfectly, but it gets the general direction.

Pick #2 — Agriculture, the Bull Market of a Hungry World

Agriculture lagged the broad commodity rally this year, and didn’t heat up until recently. But next year could be a game changer, one that lights a fire under corn, wheat, soybeans and more.
To be sure, grain prices have been rallying hard lately. So is the big bull run for grains over? No, it’s actually just getting started.

  • According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the number of chronically hungry people in the world — that is people suffering from perpetual and severe hunger — has risen to an unbelievable 1 billion! In addition, as many as 2 billion more people live in perpetual food insecurity — missing some meals and often not knowing where their next meal will come from. In the U.S., the richest nation on Earth, about 36 million people suffer from food insecurity.
  • The U.S. is already the world’s biggest food exporter — heck, we could be the Saudi Arabia of grain. But even we aren’t immune to bad weather or bad luck. High hopes for bumper crops were flattened by bad weather recently. And not just here — bad weather is hurting crops in China, Australia — around the world.
  • And there’s little margin for error. While two years of bumper harvests have boosted global stockpiles, as measured by months’ worth of inventory, they still are lower than at any time since World War II.
  • China, with 1.3 billion mouths to feed, is really caught in a squeeze. Its farmland is disappearing due to drought, over-pumping and urbanization. It has to feed 7.3 times as many people per arable acre as the U.S. And as the Chinese get wealthier, they want to eat more like big, fat Americans.

Now for the really bullish news. A slumping dollar boosted the appeal of U.S. grain exports for buyers using other currencies. This in turn should boost grain prices.

How to Trade It

The iPath Dow-Jones AIG-Grains ETN (JJG) tracks soybeans, wheat and corn. Be careful, however — there’s not a lot of volume in this one so entries and exits can be tricky. Don’t chase, but definitely consider getting in it.

Pick #3 — The Alternative Currencies: Gold and Silver

A good trader always questions every trade he puts on. I’ve laid out a case for the dollar going lower here, but what if the dollar goes higher?

What could cause that? Well, if there’s a massive global investor panic like we suffered last year. In that case, we could see investors dump stocks and other investments and flee into cash. That sent the U.S. dollar higher during the panic of 2008.

But now for the interesting news — cash isn’t what it used to be. As a result, a lot of countries around the world are getting sick of our dollars, and shying away from them if not downright dumping them. Oh, sure, the dollar could go higher in the next panic. But something else might go even higher — gold and silver.

Gold and silver are the original alternative currencies. They’re hard asset currencies — you can’t create them on a printing press. And in a time of paper currency corruption and debasement, they should continue to shine!

How high could gold go? Well, recent highs are still sharply below the inflation-adjusted high. Just look at this chart …

Inflation-adjusted gold price

Metals consultancy GFMS put the inflation-adjusted high for gold at $2,079 an ounce. So yes, I’d say gold could go much higher. Silver too!

Gold is being both on the supply side, where mines can’t keep up despite high prices, and on the demand side. Investors are already piling into gold and silver. Heck, central banks are piling into gold as well, turning from sellers into net buyers. Going forward, according to industry analysts at GFMS, the second half of the year should see even more purchases.

China Grain Stockpiles
Source: GFMS

It sure seems that China, Russia and others are buying gold on every dip. This is probably part of a plan for a long-term shift away from the dollar. But it also puts a floor under the price of gold … and means the easiest path for the yellow metal should be higher.

And going forward, the signatories to Europe’s Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) have decided to sell even LESS gold, not more. The banks inked a new five-year agreement, lowering the annual limit on gold they could sell to 400 metric tonnes reducing the banks’ sales quotas by 100 tonnes a year. GFMS expects central bank sales to be “the lowest annual total in over two decades.”

Bottom line: I expect gold to go higher anyway next year as the U.S. dollar trends lower. And if we enter phase II of the financial panic, gold could blast through the roof. Physical gold is a great thing to own, and you can also add it to your portfolio.

How to Trade It

If the facts I’ve laid out for you sound as bullish to you as they do to me, consider buying the Market Vectors Gold Mines ETF (GDX). You can buy ETFs that track gold itself — the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is an example — but the miners in the GDX are leveraged to the price of gold. So, as gold goes high, they should go even higher.

Do your own due diligence in anything you buy, and make sure it’s right for your investing style.

Dollar Doom and Gold Boom Is Coming — But
You Can Help Protect Yourself AND Profit!

I’ve laid out the basics of some trades you can use to ride big trends and reap potentially big profits next year — but I’ve barely scratched the surface.

That’s why I’m inviting you to join me and two special guests for an exclusive online seminar.
In this urgent and important online briefing, we’ll give you the straight poop on some tough questions …

  • How to make the most of the commodity bull market?
  • What currencies will go up as the U.S. dollar goes down?
  • What other sectors will outperform?
  • What investments should you avoid with a 10-foot pole?

PLUS … my special guests and I will have three more red-hot picks for you. And we’ll go beyond ETFs to explore OTHER ways you can play this big bull market … gold boom, dollar doom and more!

This event is happening LIVE on November 6 at 12 noon ET (9 AM Pacific)

And you won’t want to miss it — not if you want the profit plays from the biggest trends of 2010 … AND ways to protect your portfolio from the financial shockwaves that are headed our way.

To sign up, CLICK THIS LINK. And to submit questions for us to answer during the special briefing, click this link to drop me a note in the comments. If we have time, we’ll answer your question on the call.

The Big Trends of 2010 — the Next Leg Up In
The Commodity Bull Market — Won’t Wait!

The dollar recently touched record lows against the euro … gold is bumping up against record highs … the price of crude keeps is zig-zagging higher. But the big trends of 2010 are much bigger. They are international in scope. And they offer you enormous investment potential.

If you don’t get aboard this profit train now, you’ll wish you had! Sign up. Get ready! Call in! And open your eyes to a world of investment possibilities.

Yours for trading profits,

Sean

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