I hope you had a great weekend. I have a couple of charts for this morning …
I have a third chart, on gold, but it requires more explanation. So, my plan is to use it in my UncommonWisdomDaily.com video broadcast tomorrow (Tuesday, April 14). Be sure to tune in for that one.
Now, here is some news that I’m reading …
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast to Lowest in Five Years
(Bloomberg) — The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, as the economic slump reduces consumption to the lowest since 2004.The adviser to 28 nations cut its 2009 forecast for an eighth consecutive month, slashing last month’s estimate by 1 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, to 83.4 million barrels a day. The IEA also said oil supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will drop this year.
“The pace of contraction is close to early 1980s levels, with a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010,” the Paris-based adviser said in a monthly report today.
Global oil supply fell by 400 kb/d in March, to 83.4 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply fell by 170 kb/d, with a 220 kb/d dip in the OECD partly offset by higher non-OECD output. 2009 non-OPEC output is revised down by 320 kb/d, largely due to lower biofuels output, and weaker 1Q09 crude production in Asia. Non-OPEC output now falls from 50.6 mb/d in 2008 to 50.3 mb/d in 2009.
Open house, anyone? 1 in 9 homes sit empty
From Maine to Hawaii, millions of new McMansions, post-World War II bungalows, modern downtown lofts, exurban town homes and inner-city row houses sit empty. This unprecedented glut of vacant homes — one in nine homes across the USA, according to the Census Bureau — will change the real estate landscape for years.
More squatters call foreclosures home
Anita Beaty, executive director of the Metro Atlanta Task Force for the Homeless, said her group had been looking into asking banks to give it abandoned buildings to renovate and occupy legally. Ms. Honkala, who was a squatter in the 1980s, said the biggest difference now was that the neighbors were often more supportive. “People who used to say, ‘That’s breaking the law,’ now that they’re living on a block with three or four empty houses, they’re very interested in helping out, bringing over mattresses or food for the families,” she said.
XX Sean’s note — I think in the next leg of the downturn — which will likely be a worse leg — we could see organized resistance to forced evictions, as neighbors band together. First it will be nonviolent, then … we’ll see.
However, both stocks and industrial commodities seem to want to go higher now. Do I think it’s short-term? Yes. But it can go further and longer than most people believe. Bear market rallies are like that. Could it be the beginning of a new bull? Unlikely, but as good traders, we have to be open to the possibility that the answer is “yes.” The onus remains on the bulls to prove themselves. For now, we’ll just take short-term trading positions, use protective stops, and not complain (too much) if we get stopped out in this wild and wooly market.
Good luck and good trades.
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