Reader Webster Krise asks where he can track the U.S. Dollar. Webster, a good place to do it is on Stockcharts.com.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p45237613245&a=167210110
I’ve created this particular chart on Stockcharts.com and made it linkable. You can follow the link to see it updated every day (not intra-day, end of day)
Now I’ve put a few moving averages on this chart — the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Many technical analysts watch these.
The 20-day moving average gives you an indication of the short-term trend. The US Dollar is below its 20-day moving average, which is bearish.
The 50-day moving average shows intermediate-term trend. The US dollar is also below that, also bearish.
The 200-day moving average is the long-term trend. The US dollar is above that, which is bullish.
There are many indicators that different analysts use. One I like is RSI, which is a momentum indicator. You’ll find it on the bottom of the chart. It is below the 50 mark and going lower.
All these things can change, and other factors come into play. Price support is very important, and you can see that support from the March low seems to be holding. If the US dollar bounces from that support and goes higher — which is certainly possible — that would be pretty bullish. That would also likely change indicators like the RSI from bearish to bullish.
Webster, I hope that helps. And remember, you should be able to track the dollar’s progress every day at that link I gave you above.
Now, let’s look at another chart, this one of the S&P500 SPDRs, or SPY …
Things look pretty good here. And the S&P 500 is a good chart to look at when you’re looking at the dollar, because the greenback has become the “anti-stock” trade. When people are worried about the stock market, they tend to go into cash — boosting the dollar.
I expect to see a short-term pullback in stocks, so I’d expect the US dollar to go higher.
Oil Traders Are Likely to Start Selling Stored Crude, JBC Says
Oil traders who have been keeping as much as 100 million barrels of crude on tankers to profit from forward prices are likely to start selling the cargoes as the incentive to store wanes, consultant JBC Energy said today.
Worries Rise on the Size of U.S. Debt
Already, in the first six months of this fiscal year, the federal deficit is running at $956.8 billion, or nearly one seventh of gross domestic product — levels not seen since World War II, according to Wrightson ICAP, a research firm. Debt held by the public is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to rise from 41 percent of gross domestic product in 2008 to 51 percent in 2009 and to a peak of around 54 percent in 2011 before declining again in the following years. For all of 2009, the administration probably needs to borrow about $2 trillion.
“You should note that the CLSA China Manufacturing Index for April also came out overnight (see Economic Data’s charts), with the index registering expansion in China for the first time in nine months. The reading was 50.1 in April versus 44.8 March. This indicates that the stimulus efforts of the Chinese government are indeed having the wanted effect on demand as I suggested last week. Therefore, I am officially abandoning my downbeat forecast for Chinese growth (see my predictions for 2009).”
In the current economic climate, a new group of au current advisers is coming to the fore. Many of them, like Peter Schiff, received their initial boost of fame by predicting various aspects of the current meltdown and are now trying to make money by telling people how to survive and thrive in the post-crash world. Schiff’s “Crash Proof,” currently in its 11th printing, urges consumers to buy gold to hedge against coming hyperinflation. At the other end of the spectrum is Martin D. Weiss’ recently published “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.” Weiss, a Florida-based investment adviser, advocates that many people should cut their stock losses and sell off, as we are entering a period of deflation.
China’s Central Bank Says Economy Beating Forecasts, Pledges `Ample’ Cash
China’s quarter-on-quarter growth in gross domestic product improved significantly, the central bank said, without giving figures. The threat from deflation is easing, it said. China’s economy grew 6.1 percent in the quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since at least 1999.
US Offshores 22,000 Green Jobs to India
As the Obama government gets ready to raise a protectionist wall against offshoring, the US firms seem to be shipping more jobs to India. The US firms have offshored 22,000 green technology jobs to India since January 1, 2009, according to Doug Brown, co-author of the influential 2009 Green Outsourcing Report.
XX Sean’s note — Here’s an opinion piece that people will be talking about at the water cooler today …
Barack Obama is a brand. And the Obama brand is designed to make us feel good about our government while corporate overlords loot the Treasury, our elected officials continue to have their palms greased by armies of corporate lobbyists, our corporate media diverts us with gossip and trivia and our imperial wars expand in the Middle East. Brand Obama is about being happy consumers. We are entertained. We feel hopeful. We like our president. We believe he is like us. But like all branded products spun out from the manipulative world of corporate advertising, we are being duped into doing and supporting a lot of things that are not in our interest.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
And now, the wheels of heaven stop – you feel the Devil’s riding crop
Get ready for the future – it is murder.
– Leonard Cohen, The Future
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