The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) came out this morning.  It’s a little more bearish corn and a little more bullish beans than the last report, but it’s not an earth-shaker.  U.S. wheat ending stocks are predicted higher, while Russia and other nations are getting their crops hammered by drought, as I’ve touched on in recent UncommonWisdomDaily.com columns and blog posts.

If you’re a subscriber to my recent agriculture report, you might want to read the WASDE report for your own enlightenment.  So far, it hasn’t caused a big ripple in global markets.

In Other News …

Metal Mania: “Heavily Overbought” Gold & Silver Due for a Major Fall, Prechter Says

XX Sean’s note — I remember back in 2003 when Robert Prechter said gold’s bear market would continue, and would take the yellow metal under $200.  Obviously he was very, painfully wrong that time.  And yet the market listens to him. He’s right about many things, so maybe he’s right this time.  But he’s also wrong about many things.  That’s the problem with the Elliot Wave that Prechter uses - it seems to make those who use it absolutely certain in their beliefs, when there is no such thing as a certain market.

Oh, and Prechter is also predicting another, bigger wave down in the broad stock market.  More people agree with him on that than agree with him on gold.  But other smart people expect the U.S. market to rally into the fourth quarter before it craps out again.

IMF puts cost of global financial crisis/crime at $11.9 trillion

The staggering total is equivalent to around a fifth of the entire globe’s annual economic output and includes capital injections pumped into banks in order to prevent them from collapse, the cost of soaking up so-called toxic assets, guarantees over debt and liquidity support from central banks. Although much of the total may never be called on, the potential outlay still dwarfs any previous repair bill for the global economy.

The IMF calculations, produced ahead of the two-year anniversary of the crisis, underline the continually mounting cost. Most of the cash has been handed over by developed countries, for whom the bill has been $10.2 trillion, while developing countries have spent only $1.7 trillion - the majority of which is in central bank liquidity support for their stuttering financial sectors.

XX Sean’s note - There are approximately 6.7 billion people in the world, so that’s $1,776 each.  Pay up.

U.S. trade gap widens on oil prices

The U.S. trade deficit widened in June to $27.0 billion, as goods imports increased for the first time in 11 months on the back of higher oil prices, a Commerce Department report said on Wednesday.  Analyst surveyed before the report had expected the monthly trade gap to widen to around $28.5 billion. But stronger foreign demand for U.S. goods and services offset some of the impact of the oil price increase on the deficit.

Confidence in Global Economy Jumps on Signs Recession Is Approaching End Confidence in the world economy surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the worst global recession since World War II is coming to an end, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed.

XX Sean’s note - is this confidence a contrary indicator?  I’ll look into that.

Honda Holds Out for Hydrogen as U.S. Favors Nissan’s Battery-Powered Cars Honda Motor Co. is backing hydrogen power for the cars of the future, waving aside a decision by the Obama administration to drop the so-called fuel-cell technology in favor of battery-run vehicles.

XX Sean’s note - I think that’s a stupid move on Honda’s part, and I’m usually a big fan of Honda.  Hydrogen power-storage systems are EXPENSIVE and still NOT WORKABLE.  Batteries are cheap, here and now.

IEA Raises 2009, 2010 Oil Demand Forecasts on Accelerating Chinese Growth The International Energy Agency raised its global oil demand forecasts for this year and next, citing accelerating industrial activity in China, the world’s fastest-growing consumer of crude.

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• Amazing Agriculture (06/03/08)