The commodity rally should have a way to run yet …
The next target for the commodity-tracking CRB Index is 305, and it could go higher still.
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i had no internet last night or this morning. i’m now in a very “interesting” business center, trying to use a spanish language keyboard. hence, no caps.
having no internet at night lets one’s mind wander on this and that. last night i started to think — after hearing that gold had hit yet another high — who is buying all the gold? strangely enough, it is not etfs …
the black line is the gold held by etfs — still fairly since september, even though the price of gold is taking off.
there is some jewelry buying coming back. and people taking physical delivery of gold contracts can account for some of it. still, the big buyers must be the central banks. and if they’re buying this much, then ask yourself: why? what do they know?
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Since I’m in South America, where agricultural exports are a big deal, I thought I’d look at the agriculture sector. To do that, we can view the Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO: 42.66 +0.12 +0.28%)
You can see that MOO has almost made a 50% retracement of its big decline. It isn’t there yet, though. When it gets there, what happens next? Agriculture stocks aren’t overbought yet. I’d use the 61.8% retracement — 48.27 — as my next target.
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A few hours sleep drastically improved my mood. I spent the afternoon walking around Santiago, which is a great walking city. I also had lunch with a couple of mining company executives – they devoured some kind of belly buster pizza while I ate Mediterranean salad (heavy on the mushrooms), and we split an order of fried Ecuadorian shrimp, which are excellent.
It’s always good to eat lunch with happy miners/explorers; their good moods are infectious. I got to hear about not only what is but what might be; and a miner telling that kind of tale is a lot of fun to listen to. Some of these things are so speculative that they aren’t even for putting in issues, but I’ll share what I can after I sort it out.
Walking around Santiago, my impression is this is like other cities in Spain or southern Italy. It could even be South Florida with a higher percentage of swarthiness. I’m a cyclist, and I was surprised to see the two bikes I was able to check out closely had no gears on them. In a city in the Andes? The Chileans must have legs of steel. Heck, I ride a 24-speed bike in the flatlands of Florida.
Looking at this photo, you can see how the mountains loom over the town, though the photo doesn’t do them justice. Smog lay over the city, but it was still a nice Spring day. 
People were out just enjoying the sunshine, street musicians played noisily, and a lot of couples were canoodling in the park. So, yes, Santiago is like other big cities, only with Chilean flavor.
The food is excellent – one of my friends on the tour told me he had one of the best meals of his life last night in Santiago – and the wine has a reputation for being delicious, though we aren’t drinking because alcohol can worsen the effects of High Altitude Sickness.
In 30 minutes, we’re heading back to the airport and flying off to our next destination. Then we drive to a very high elevation, where we’ll look at what is probably one of the best gold finds of the decade. Internet connection is terrible at the hotel where I am now; we’ll see if it’s any better in the mountains. So you may not hear from me, but check back in case I have more photos and stories to tell.
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A look at yesterday’s action in the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX: 50.82 -0.28 -0.55%) shows tht not only is it blasting off, but it recently has outperformed both the S&P 500 and gold, as tracked by the (GLD: 112.94 +0.64 +0.57%).
Of course, the GDX can get overbought compared to either gold or the S&P 500. But I wouldn’t worry about it yet.
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I got no sleep in my economy class seat last night, then I arrived in Chile to a 1 ½ hour wait in customs. The company I’m visiting forgot to have someone meet me at the airport, so $55-cab-ride later, I’m at a hotel – in a room that’s the kind of place a midget would check in to commit suicide - small and sad, LOL.
Well, I’m here to work, not relax, and I can tell you the bed is comfortable, and I plan to catch up on lost sleep. On the plus side Chile’s national airline, LAN, serves excellent food. Also, I watched the movie “UP” last night. It seemed appropriate — grouchy old man looking for paradise in South America, LOL.
So, it’s not bad so far - and the trip can only get better from here.
The Andes are so big that a picture will never do them justice. They loomed right over the road as I was driven here by Jorge the “Suicide King.” We came thisclose to hitting cars a couple of times, but we got here without a scratch, so I guess he knows what he’s doing.
Now I need to rest. This afternoon I’m on to another, smaller plane and flying to a mining camp high in the Andes.
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If you missed it, Congress gutted Sarbanes-Oxley on Friday. Yes, it can be argued that the existing law hurt small business. But the real reason it was overturned was because it forced the big banks to admit bad news they’d rather keep hidden. S-O could have been fixed rather than repealed. It seems the red ink from the current crisis isn’t even dry before they’re sowing the seeds of the next financial calamity.
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I’m going to two countries in South America — Chile and Argentina. Both of them use different power systems than the U.S. does. And this means bringing my computer along becomes problematic. I’m afraid the DC-type (European) power used in those countries could fry my laptop.
The good news is I have a Sharper Image Dual Wattage International Converter set (FZ508). The bad news I read some of the reviews on Amazon and it could still fry my computer. I’m using a Sony Vaio with a 19.5 volt AC adapter rated at 50 to 60 hertz.
I’ve read up on power conversion for Argentina and Chile and I’m still not sure if I have the right stuff. Will using a surge protector in combination wiht the Sharper Image Power Converter work? If any reader know the answers to these questions, please reply in the comments.
UPDATE: I did some research and decided to go with the Kensington All-in-One Worldwide Travel Adapter. It says right on the box that it works for laptops. But if I could have found this one, I would have bought that.
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Here is the rebroadcast of the webinar
https://weissevents.webex.com/weissevents/lsr.php?AT=pb&SP=EC&rID=1708827&rKey=9bbf0f8ed3495881
It was a fun, informative webinar, but we’re new to the technology and had a bunch of technical glitches. This threw me for such a loop that I didn’t start recording the webinar until the second slide. The first trend was the declining dollar, and you’ve probably heard me talk about that enough. Some of the other trends covered in the webinar may be interesting to you.
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